Iran to resume uranium enrichment despite Turkey deal

(CNN) -- Iran will continue to enrich uranium to 20 percent, it said Monday, despite agreeing to ship its low-enriched uranium to Turkey.

Foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told the Islamic Republic News Agency that Iran will not stop making the highly enriched uranium, which is a source of consternation among many Western nations.

Iran said it needs to enrich uranium from its current 3.5 percent to 20 percent because a research reactor that produces isotopes for cancer patients is running out of fuel.

But 20-percent enriched uranium is the threshold for uranium capable of setting off a nuclear reaction. And Western leaders have alleged that Iran is trying to create nuclear weapons under the guise of a civilian energy program.

On Sunday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced he was heading to Iran to join nuclear talks in Tehran involving Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The meeting in Tehran sought to reach a breakthrough in the showdown over Iran's nuclear program, according to Erdogan.

The last-minute trip followed a "signal" from the talks, which are intended to resolve the dispute over Iran's nuclear energy program, Erdogan told reporters before departing. Erdogan indicated the signal involved Iran's agreement to swap its low-enriched uranium for nuclear fuel, CNN Turk reported.

Erdogan said he hoped an agreement in Tehran would stop the U.N. Security Council from its negotiations on tougher sanctions on Iran.

"The Security Council was contemplating a step in the direction of sanctions as of yesterday," Erdogan said. "As a part of our talks, this has been postponed. Now with this step we are going to take, I hope that we will have the opportunity to overcome these problems."

Iran's official Islamic Republic News Agency made no mention of the nuclear issue in reporting earlier that Lula was sitting down with Ahmadinejad. But French President Nicolas Sarkozy and President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia both have said they back Lula's efforts to resolve the long-running, high-stakes stalemate.

"This could be the last chance before the U.N. Security Council makes the already known decisions," Medvedev said, referring to the U.N. decision on imposing sanctions against Iran.

Sarkozy said earlier that he had spoken with Lula by phone to assure him that Paris supports his efforts to resolve the impasse.

The United States and many other countries believe that Iran intends to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

On Saturday, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu left for Tehran to join the Iran-Brazil talks. Erdogan said Sunday the anticipated signal from Iran was received and he was changing his schedule to travel to Tehran, postponing a planned visit to Azerbaijan.

Erdogan's statement indicated an agreement in which Iran would send most of its low-enriched uranium to be turned into fuel rods suitable for Turkey's nuclear power reactor that makes medical isotopes.

"After our high-level meeting in Tehran, I believe we will have the opportunity to start the process regarding the swap," Erdogan said. "We said that we will go to Tehran if the swap takes place in Turkey, and we received news that the text includes a reference to this. That's why we are going. Otherwise we wouldn't have gone."

Turkey and Brazil have been working on a joint offer based on the nuclear swap deal offered previously to Tehran. Both countries are temporary members of the U.N. Security Council and have been working toward a diplomatic solution that does not involve sanctions.

Communications for Humanitarian Intervention

I attended recently a webinar organized by the Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict Research from Harvard University about the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) on humanitarian action. The participants were professionals belonging to various NGOs and organisations with a record of activity in conflict and emergency situations, as for example the recent Haiti earthquake.

Even we are fully aware of the tremendous impact of the ICT (cell phones, Skype, Twitter) on the humanitarian relief operations and consequently on saving lives, there are still lots of questions regarding the general reliability and the risks involved. But still, it is a great potential regarding the possibility to create and mobilize communities - mostly on a volunteering basis - for gathering support in crisis humanitarian situations. You have the opportunity to map a certain situation on the ground, for example, and to identify people able to intervene. The technical background is very important, including from the point of view of selecting the messages according to a guaranteed reliability. Even, as one of the speakers outlined, "Facebook and Twitter are ungouvernable", the sense of responsability is the first step to increase the sense of community and the general responsability for what we do and how we act in supporting people in need.

Arctic Policy?

Questions of a more than ever actuality.

Rashid Khalidi on the new US policies in the Middle East

The interview is enforcing and outlining several old or less old perspectives:

- it is coming from one of the few proeminent Palestinian intellectuals, but it failing to address from an intellectual and critical - of all parts involved - including the one he is belonging to

- it is expressing a certain sense of hope - wishful thinking - for a relative reshaping process of the US interests in the Middle East. He is having a certain tone of telling things from the source.

- in many respects it is reflecting some changes already in process regarding the relationship between US and Israel, and the question is if this change is the result of a certain Palestinian lobby at the level of the current administration.

- it is not too much - or almost nothing - about the possibilities of a certain cooperation on the ground between Israelis and Palestinians.

- he is insisting of the end of the Cold War understanding of the Middle East, but his ideas are tributary to this kind of logic, with third-world accents and the attitude of asking the help and support only because it is assumed belonging to the good side of the story.

Some hints about the vote in UK

An interesting aspect is the introduction - not here for the first time, of course, but I noticed the sense of emergency induced - of the environmental priorities. Franny Armstrong's movie The Age of Stupid was distributed with free access two days before the elections, to make people aware of the necessity to turn their vote in favor of those supporting anti-climate change policies. The movie is designed to convince not to charm: fragments of global warming episodes - including Katrina - are mixed with real-time interviews and various testimonies, taking place in a futuristic, end-of-the world setting. I hope to have one day the appropriate time to dedicate a longer article to the problematic of global warming translated at the level of international affairs. As for now, I am trully preoccupied by all these issues, but in the same time I cannot stop observing various ideological arguments associated to the very beginning of this ecologist movement, in the 60s-70s, during the Cold War, under the close surveillance and generous funding of some Soviet connections.

But, beyond any doubts, introducing environmental issues on the political agenda is a very interesting fact and it would be interesting to find possible quantitative evaluations of the impact of these issues on the general public.

A couple of other news about the elections:

The last final meetings with the electorate

The community networks

Possible consequence for the foreign relations with a special impact on the US-UK relation

Nick Clegg and Israel, on Ha'aretz

Is Taiwan closer to China?

The death penaly was applied again in Taiwan.

What offer to the Middle East?

The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) counting professionals with connections to the US military establishment published a couple of days ago a very interesting report regarding the possible and recommended security direction for a prospective Palestinian state.

Following the lessons learned from the analysis of three international peace missions - in East Timor, Kosovo and Lebanon - the authors are drafting the possibilities of creating a security environment in the Middle East, starting from the application of the two-state solution. An interesting proposal is to create a NATO-led military force, complemented by a civilian-led organism, able to handle political, governance and development matters.

NATO is assigned a big role in creating the premices for peace. but if at the military level this solution could be viable - given the long experience of the Alliance in dealing with difficult environments, from the political point of view, creating consensus for supporting a new mission - after the various discussions regarding the situation from Afghanistan would be more difficult.

US Middle East envoy George Mitchell is these days in the region with meeting scheduled with representatives of the the state of Israel and of the Palestinian authority. Since the beginning of this year, the political relations between Israel and US suffered several set-backs. In advance of the visit of the Washington representative, Israeli prime-minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed the standpoints expressed in his June 2009: the state of Israel needs the necessary security guarantees in order to accept the creation of a Palestinian state.

The optimism regarding the area must continue to be extremely moderated. But, in the same time, thinking about solutions and possibilities of implementation could open a door to a new level of the discussions. Given the failures of the last decades, any optimism is counter-productive if not a dangerous illusion.

Policies of aid

Recently, UN opened a website aiming to allow a better follow-up of the ways in which the aid for Haiti is directed and used. A good initiative, but it is only a start in order to offer a bigger transparency and, finally accountabiliy of the ways in which the financial support for countries in need is used - and, sometimes, abused.

The current policies of aid is often in center of debates contesting the lack of efficiency and the contribution in increasing corruption and poverty. The critiques are mostly referring to Africa, and one of the last references I´ve read recently is the book of Dambissa Moyo, Dead Aid. Why is not working and how there is another way for Africa.

There are many food for thought information and data regarding the desperate situation from Africa and the lack of consistency of the sustained Western effort in delivering lots of aids and financial incentives to the continent. And, very important, that you need to have a serious support and background in these efforts coming from the region, as the local ownership might be an incentive in creating responsibilities and increasing the efficiency in using the money. In other words, an "anti-colonialistic" and "anti-orientalistic" frame in reconsidering the Western perspectives on Africa, beyond the more or less "entertainement" frame where pop stars are promoting their social profiles using the poverty from the region as a paravan.

Some paradoxes, confirmed by the data used in the book, are rising various questions regarding the lack of efficiency of the last decades efforts directed to Africa - in comparison, for example, with the post-WWII Marshall Plan, for example. For example, between 1970 and 1998, when the aid flows to Africa were at their peak, the poverty rate rose from 11 to 66%. The continent became fully depend on the foreign aid: "Presenty, Africa receives development assistance worth almost 15% of its GDP - or more than four times the Marshall Plan at its high. Given Africa´s poor economic performance in the past fifty years,while billions of dollars of aid have poured in, it is hard to grasp how another swathe of billions will somehow turn Africa´s aid experience into one of success" (p.36). In addition, the system disfunctionalities apparently were nurtured by the foreign financial support, with rampant corruption, political instability and institutional vulnerabilities.

The books do not provide solution(s) and it is rather a general evaluation of the situation, focusing more on general examples than on a case-by-case analysis of the situation. In many respects, I felt the need of more information and reports and economic references. An interesting solution outlined, but not too much developed further is to use the policy of bond market, which I find a creative alternative, but in order to emit bonds, you need a reliable market, a case not very sure for many African countries. The final pledge for more creativity is welcomed, but in the case of political science, you need more stable elements in order to create long term perspectives for institutional and, not less important, economic development.

In fact, my feeling after reading this book was that I agreed with many ideas regarding the failure of the policies of aid and I had more insights about the scale of the lack of achievements, but I am still moving around understanding how it is possible to go beyond the current level of underdevelopment. Maybe an approach based on investigative journalism skills will reveal more about the scale of lack of success and, by identifyng clearly - and not only rhetorically - the main actors - will be possible to build up further reliable scripts for new perspective(s).

A future for Sudan?

Let's first see what are the prospects, according to the policy of Obama administration.

Something else about Iceland

Everybody is talking today about Iceland, after the transportation in at least half of Europe is completely blocked. Beyond these very pressing weather considerations, more and more frequent in our daily conversations as we could imagined, Iceland was mentioned frequently the last year in relation with the economic crisis, as a illustrative example of the failure of the illimited credit policy.

New airport security measures in the US

To be announced today, by president Obama, a consequence of the latest December incident.

Q and A, about the Middle East, on Foreign Affairs

A very intersting session with Ehud Yaari, journalist and Lafer International Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The air as a battlespace: a manual

I had recently the occasion to follow a very interesting webinar on the newly released Manual on International Law Applicable to Air and Missile Warfare. The proceedings and theoretical discussions - a purely academic exercise - lasted for almost six years, and the outcome, the manual, is not intending to be legally binding, but to offer a source of inspiration for those involved in the issue.

The approach itself is very interesting, as being purely the result of a peer-reviewed work of experts - who are addressing very complicate and problematic practical issues. One of them is, for example, the issue of voluntary human shields and the question how much and when those should be considered direct participants in hostilities. Shortly, the air warfare is implying very practical and direct actions, often took on a case by case basis, not always directly inspired by the academic debate.

A reproach made by some of the participants to the webinar was that the equilibrum of the manual is doubtful, as long as you do not have authors from the "bombed" countries. Nobody asked, the limits of politically corectness respected, what is the stage of the specific theoretical discussion on these issues in these "bombed" countries.

The issue of air security is very actual, but focus mostly of the aspects related to the terrorist threats and the direct impact on the life of civilians. Countering the current vulnerabilities cannot be avoided, independently of the political campaigns rhetorics. Cases in which, the limits between public and private, imposing or limiting the state intervention are very unclear and lacking a theoretical strong and universally available argumentation.

The discussion is open. Despite the relative high frequency of discussions on this issue, the solution is far of being clear. And, in fact, our world is too complicate and complex to be solved through one solution.

We and our states

The legal, moral and political problems following September 11 terrorist attacks represented the inspiration of various political and artistic standpoints. Music, literature, arts, pros cons, debates from various perspectives. In the center: how much our freedom is/will be threaten by the legislation allowing the state to enter and access our privacy.

Most part of these statements, in my opinion, are lacking exactly the wider perspective assumed from the very beginning, by not stressing the problem of what is, in fact, the essence and content of this freedom? And, even less, the ways in order to stop or at least diminish the causes provoking this reaction from the part of the states.

The German journalist Heribert Prantl is outlining the German example, but in a very rhetorical way. Page after page, he is gathering more arguments for a public requisitorium of a more intrusive state. With roots back in the past of the German experience in facing the Rote Armee Fraktion and other terrorist threats in the 70s. Ironically enough, but not so logically unexpectedly as Prantl let us believe, one of the promoters of the strict German legislation was the social-democrat Otto Schilly, former Federal Minister of the Interior between 1998 and 2005, during Gerhard Schröder. In the 70s, the same Schilly was defending the Rot Armee Faktion members and, late in the 80s, was one of the founding member of the Green Party.

The rhetoric is continuing, but without a single line of arguments devoted to understanding the whole landscape: the causes of this situation, the alternatives and the options - how, in fact, the state ought to defend its citizens of terrorism, of being innocent victims of fanatics, the possibilities to counter such situations and to play a game with win/win outcome.

It is very easy to outline all these issues and to complain and accuse an invisible and (assumed) mighty power of the state(s), the temptation to control our privacy - doubtful, given the eagerness we, all of us, we are sharing our information and privacies online, via social networking sites, without being requested - the tighter limits to our freedom. As in the case of the Middle East, it is very easy to express an opinion, as a proof of our freedom to think, accuse, evaluate. But, in order to provide a wiser outline of the landscape, more than rhetorics are needed. For example, a critical anaylsis, going beyond the public acclaimed statements. Otherwise, we are getting trapped in the common places of the self-delivered ideas.

Obama in Afghanistan: Keep the troops on the run

An (expected) surprise visit of Barack Obama in Afghanistan with expected encouraging messages to the Americans fighting for the security of Afghanistan.

Messages of continuing the support for fighting Al Qaeda and finishing to deliver the answer of post-9/11 America. The new American story still to be written.

The health care debate

Live on C-Span

And live NYTimes blogging

12 March World Day Against Cyber Censorship

http://www.rsf.org/

US visa security

The lack of communication between various federal agencies in cases related to counter-terrorism, long before, before and after 11/9 was often criticized, scrutinized and analysed, without any positive results.

The security concerns increased, the number of agencies increased, the bureaucracy as well. But not at all the level of information sharing. In many situations, the terrorists entering to or intending to enter the territory of the USA were having valid passports and valid visas. Maybe, in some cases, according to the consular services, there were not qualified as immigrants so got freely the visa. They do not even try to access the visa waiver service, but follow the very bureaucratical and for many, unsuccessful way.

Too many challenges, too many agencies, too much bureaucracy, too much insecurity.

The Gods for political use

This news do not have too much to do with: politics, geopolitics, intelligence, terrorism or countering terrorism. In some respects, it does with certain international PR, but at a very show-business level.

The story is about the book the son of a founder of Hamas, Sheikh Hassan Yousef, is gonna publish very soon, about his relationship with Shin Beth, the Israeli home security services. For sure he prevented and saved many lives. But, what he is more focusing about is his "religious revelation". A kind of competition in between who is the best "god". Because, during his operational activity in dismantling Hamas he decided to convert to Christianism. And, it is how he arrived in the US, following the networks of Christian missionaries and finally left his "intelligence" interests.

In some respects I am curios what his book will bring new about Hamas and terrorism. In some other respects, I am not so curious, as long as I could bet it is another testimony of religious brainwashing.

In direct connection with this mixture between terrorism and religion, I am wondering sometimes how it is possible to be so blind and do not think that your actions are endangering the people you assume you want to save, represent, defend. I've read recently how, for example,a couple of years ago Hamas intended to assasinate one of the sons of Ariel Sharon. Just because "they" wanted to destroy the family of the former prime minister. Without ever thinking about what consequences such an act could produce. Terrorism do not have nothing to do with people with reason or with pondered decision. Nothing.

The routes of crime

A Stratfor analysis about the routes of narcotics in US.

It is only a slice of a widespread activity, not basically national - Mexican - as the branches are to be found almost everywhere and part of the operation might be politicians, stars, everybody useful in making the machine work. And narcotics are never coming alone - you have arms smuggling, money laundering, corruption, crime and also terrorist activities.

What kind of parliament for Iraq?

A relative calm, in a tensed framework in Iraq, expecting the Sunday vote for the the parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, the partners of the coalition who toppled Saddam Hussein are more concerned lately with the inquiry of the reasons and explanations of the 2003 actions than of offering a substantial support for the democracy and the creation of a normal life.

The overuse of the anti-war arguments are neglecting a common sense reality: as long as you had the war and you have to face a new - post-Saddam situation, in this case - it is not a sign of lack of responsibility to simply ask for the military withdrawal in an institutional and political vacuum?

The situation from Iraq is far from stable and, one of the most dangerous aspects from the point of view of the regional equilibrium is the resurgence of an extremely violent and aggressive Jihadist movement.

And, a long, but not exhaustive list of questions:

- Who is interested in an instable Iraq, whose instability is threatening as well the other Islamic countries?

- Who is providing the ammunition for the almost daily terrorist attacks?

- How could the forces of the coalition intervene in offering a more secure environment? And, given the plans of the Obama administration of a full withdrawal by the end of 2011, how evolution could be expect on the ground?

- How could an Islamic Iraq put an end to the current internal sectarian conflict?

- How the democracy in Iraq should look like, in order to offer a broader representativity for the antagonistic religious factions?

And an observation: Very often, in the Western media, it is over used and abused the idea of "islamophobia". In many parts it is a reality and it deals with the anti-immigration and xenophobic feelings. But, in the same time, you have in Iraq an example of the fratricid conflict between two branches of the same family, who not only hate each other but are killing each other as often as possible. The reality is by far more diverse than various ideological and stereotypical approaches would like to make us think. And, another aspect to be taken into consideration, the low level of unity among the Islamic countries from the Middle East, rooted, in some cases, in old tribal confrontational histories. The black-and-white "evaluations" are not only poor, but inadequate to the situation from the ground.

Low seats

I must recognize that I needed to read at least twice this "story" of the low seats diplomatic incident between Israel and Turkey, from the first half of January.

For me, it sounded as a very soap opera fake of the 1001 Nights from the ante chambers of the Ottoman Empire. It is clear this kind of "creativity" do not have nothing to do with diplomacy and I am still processing the practical reasons for taking such a...non sensical setting. What it is for me very curious as well is that the Turkish ambassador accepted to be the actor of this doubtful taste scenario.

We could suppose that he saw the disposition - and the height, of course - of the chairs in the room. But he not only stayed there, but also accepted to be filmed in the front of the camera. Not a single word said directly. It was not a normal situation so it is ridiculous to think about the need to wait for special instructions from Ankara. But, nothing "creative" from this part, by far. And accepted the further victimization. Strange and unknown diplomatic roads. But not excuse, of course, for the mise-en-scene.

India, China and the global ambitions

India and China represent for both US and Europe the big challenges. Markets with huge potential and unpredictable but enormous influence, Brussels and Washington are doing their best to win the charms of these two giants.

The latest initiative, supported by UK and Sweden is pledging for an increased diplomatic presence of the EU, as a first step to get a better understanding of the particular contexts of these two countries.

But, if in the case of India, the exposure to the Western institutional system is offering the possibility of a common lecture, in the case of China, the basic understandings of the concepts of power and the military and diplomatic doctrines are still unknown and do not offer an easy key of understanding.

A cross lecture of some considerations of Chinese authors writing about the Chinese-Indian relations, published at the end of the last year by the European Council on Foreign Relations are offering a puzzling image of the bilateral relations between the two countries and the intricate and spontaneous directions these relationships could follow in the near future.

The practical alliances - as it was the case during the WTO negotiations or the joint memorandum on climate change - are surpassed by historical conflicts and different orientations generated during the Cold War. Even at the level of both countries it is felt the need of a relaunch of the trade relations, the strategical interests of the two countries are rather competitive than complementary. The imbalance is reflected as well in the structure of the alliances enforced by both countries - India, for a strategic partnership with US, or China, with a close dialogue with Pakistan. These partnerships are derived by practical reasons as well, both parts being able to have a strict observance of the main agenda.

The end of the two-blocks competitive politics was replaced by a very pragmatical reshaping of the international global strategies. In the case of the countries with such a huge economic and strategic potential, as it is the case of India and China, the question is rather how to understand the necessity of the pragmatic alliances and to be able to predict the outcome and the next steps. The home politics considerations are permanently important and do not help as too much in being accurate in our predictions. And, for our limited Western understanding, China is the big riddle. To be solved - hopefully - in a century or two time.

The criminal's smile

After watching a couple of fragments from the latest trial session of Radovan Karadzic I had an extremely unpleasant sensation: I was looking not only at the perfect liar, but the cold blooded criminal. The political motivated criminal. With large gestures, very relaxed, he was trying to explain how in fact, the images of the media crew were the creation of the journalists who enclosed their space with barbed wire. And that the emaciated people from the images were watching the journalists. And how the genocide was a Muslim-Bosnian "creation", a "myth". No regrets, no second thoughts.

Caught while in Belgrade, after a 13-year hunt, he faces 11 counts of genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and other atrocities in the Bosnian war of the 1990s. He do not recognize none of them and refused to be represented legally, considering, as Milosevic, he is strong enough to prove his "innocence". Another important fugitive, Ratko Mladic, is still hiding - or being hidden.

Hidding behind what the former UN Prosecutor Carla Del Ponte called in this book "The Hunt" - muro di gomma/wall of rubber (p.3): "I had encountered, and would encounter, the muro di gomma, during meetings with many powerful people, from mafia financiers to Swiss bankers and politicians, from heads of state like George W. Bush and prime ministers like Silvio Berlusconi to bureaucrats in government offices and the various departments of the UN and, late in my tenure, European foreign ministers who seemed to be prepared to welcome Serbia into the EU's embrace even as Serbia's political leaders, police and army were harboring men responsible for killing thousand of prisoners in cold blood before the eyes of the world". In her account of the time spent investigating Balkan and Rwandan crimes, I always found very interesting the hide-and-seek political game, the diplomatic dance against the blind impulse to deliver justice. In many aspects, the two roads do not meet never.

The ICTY was the first war crimes court created by the UN and the first international war crimes tribunal since the Nuremberg and Tokyo tribunals. It was established by the Security Council in accordance with Chapter VII of the UN Charter. The difference with the two other war tribunals is that frequently lacked the necessary public and international support in order to deliver justice.

Georgian-Russian crossing point reopened

The crossing point Verkhny/Upper Larsbetween Russia and Georgia, closed since July 2006, was reopened March 1. The decision was took at the end of the last year, following a request from Armenia and negotiated by Swiss diplomats. Verkhny Lars is the only crossing not going through the Russian-backed breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and maintains the only direct route from Russia to Armenia.

After the August 2008 war, the situation between Russia and Georgia remains tensed, and the bilateral relations frozen.

The Turkish-Armenian game, played in Washington D.C.

A new stage in the dispute between Turkey and Armenia, concerning the issue of the genocide, was played this week in Washington D.C., after the House Foreign Affairs Committee voted a nonbinding resolution calling the mass killing of Armenians by the Turkish military, at the beginning of the last century a genocide. Turkey already condemned this move, who is risking to endangered the delicate equilibrium between Ankara and Yerevan, after an aparent opening in the second half of the last year.

The resolution was discussed as well in the Senate, in 2007, but given the need of Turkey's support for the war in Iraq by the then W. Bush administration stopped a further materialization of the decision. Both Barrack Obama and Hillary R. Clinton were supportive of the resolution.

The Turkish-Armenian agreement, signed in Switzerland, October 2009, was not fully supported by Armenian community, benefiting of a powerful and influential profile in Washington D.C..

Today, OSCE's Minsk Group on Nagorno-Karabakh isssued a statement calling the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaidjan to settle the conflict, position welcomed by Turkey.

The reconciliation process between the two countries is still extremely long and impredictable. Serious efforts, in the frame of the so-called Track II Diplomacy were made in the last dozen of years for making a dialogue possible. One of the most important issues established last year was the possibility to let the historians to discuss about such an high identity impact issue as the problem of the genocide. In this way, the politicians and diplomats are able to think about the present and the future. A very hard task, for societies where very often politicans are historians and made history focusing on the past.

The decision of the House do not add nothing to this process and complicate a situation that, in fact, was already volatile. Maybe it is a signal sent to Turkey - as long as, for example, this resolution was permanently on the agenda in the last two years but not voted - who is facing various setbacks in terms of coherent engagement regarding European and international politics.

Journalists by name

An Iranian journalist working for the state public TV channel, Hamoud Masoumi Nejad, based in Italy for 15 years, was recently arrested in the recent case of arms and explosive smuggling.

In totalitarian states, where freedom of the media is non-existent, journalists are usually used as double agents of propaganda. Now Iran, before it was the case for the journalists working for the communist states. Your "luxury" of living and travelling outside the "prison" is paid by renouncing to the basic ethical journalistic standards, mainly to say the truth and to inform correctly the public opinion.

The media situation in Iran is worsening from a day to another, with more media outlets closed following the last year events. The most recent evaluation of the Committe to Protect Journalists outlines the case of almost 47 journalists in jail. Many others are in danger to be arrested any time. The freedom of the media means nothing for the Tehran authorities.

The consequences of this extended media crackdown are to be seen in the next future. If, one day, the media in Iran will be able to learn speaking the truth, and nothing but the truth, many of the journalists will discover how difficult it is. How hard is to be able to discern information, to tell the truth to the power and to learn again that beyond any interests should stay your desire to inform. Not to make-up the reality, according to the wishes of any power. For sure, Hamid Masoumi Nejad is not the only one fake journalist. When you are living in fear, assuming you are free is a risk. Managing your own freedom and refusing any kind of pressures - financial, political, of any other kind - is very difficult. Once you have up your principles, you are like a ship in the middle of the wind. Today, it was the "national interest", tomorrow, your desire to get more money and advantages. Noone is safe. We need simply to believe in our capacity, as journalists, to think with our own minds. But, what it is in our own minds?

Iraq prepares to vote

A visual insight of this coming Sunday elections.

And one question: when will Iraq be prepared to manage its own present and future? Unfortunately, the next polls will not bring this answer yet, as the country still needs institutions and a ruling political elite able to assume full responsibilities.

Intelligent lessons

Using information and the lessons to be learned in terms of intelligence/ and counter-intelligence from the last Dubai case, in a very technical of the whole setting of the operations, in Stratfor. And, on Stratfor again, but from February 17, about the games of hunting and being hunted.

What is the most important aspect, in my opinion, in this case, is in terms of the consequences: for the future of the negotiations in the Middle East, for the terrorist actions, for the relationships between Israel and the countries from the region, as well as with the other Western counter-parts - of course, our intelligence do not allow us to read as such the protests all across the world related to the operations, as the case of the fake passports; publicly, you do not have to say anything else than to condemn, isn't it hypocritical as well? On the other side, the complexity of the operations and the final success show - again, a test for our intelligence - that it was almost impossible to have only one "scape goat" - the operational brain. Local and international help was necessary as well, to whatever main "brain".

For sure, the police-chief from Dubai will have many other flamboyant declarations. Would like to arrest a whole country, maybe. Is his right, including to be ridiculous. The perspectives of the future, for the region, are more important than ever.

La Piovra, Iranian style

A very small part of the Iranian smuggling ring in Europe is apparently seized. Another one, more extended, is currently developed in Gaza.

The connections are complicated and not easy to understand and detect at the first sight.

To be continued.

The always ugly face of dictatorships: Iran

The authorities from Tehran are continuing the abuses against the Iranian citizens. Unharmed.

A couple of updates:

The Iranian film maker Jafar Penahi was arrested Monday evening for some unspecified "offenses". He backed the opposition movement. Film world protests already.

A young student, 20 years old, was condemned to death for "Moharebeh" - "waging war against God". He throw stones against the security forces.

A declaration of an Iranian blogger during a Congress hearing:

"Washington (CNN) -- "If it were not for the Internet, God knows how many more people would have been killed on the streets of Tehran" after the 2009 Iranian elections, an Iranian blogger told a Senate subcommittee on Tuesday.
Omid Memarian, who said he was imprisoned and tortured by the Iranian regime for his pro-democracy Internet writings, was the star witness at a hearing in which U.S. technology companies were scolded for not taking a more active role in protecting freedom of expression on the Internet".

Latest State Department' declaration on the situation in Iran:

"Philip J. Crowley
Assistant SecretaryDaily Press Briefing
Washington, DC
March 2, 2010
IRAN
US continues ongoing consultations within the P-5+1
US must have common understanding re. enforcement if there is a sanctions resolution
US has a policy of supporting those who have a legitimate claim to asylum
US continues to look for ways to support the Iranian people

(...)
QUESTION: There is a press report in the Israeli press that the U.S. presented kind of a draft of the Iran resolution to the countries of the Security Council.
MR. CROWLEY: I think I would just simply say that we continue our ongoing consultations within the P-5+1 on the nature of sanctions that we might at some point put before the Security Council. We have no particular timetable for that. Obviously, the Secretary has indicated we hope to move as rapidly as possible, but also we want to make sure at the end of this process there is effective sanctions that we think will apply the kind of pressure on the Iranian Government and its components that we want to achieve.
(...)

QUESTION: Can I ask about Iranians seeking political asylum in the United States? I hear there’s many of them, thousands perhaps, that have left Iran since the election and might be looking for political asylum in the United States in countries like Iraq and Malaysia and such. And I’m just wondering if you guys have let any of them in.
MR. CROWLEY: On that last question, I think that will be one to ask the Department of Homeland Security. Obviously, we have a policy in the United States of supporting those who have legitimate claims of asylum.
On your broader point, clearly, there is a dynamic that Iran is still trying to cope with. There’s a fracture in the relationship between Iran, the government, and the Iranian people. You’ve seen it even in the last 24 hours in terms of Iran’s attempts to shut down certain media outlets. They’re denying their people the kind of information that we think is a universal right.
So we’ve seen this now coming on nine months, this fundamental split between the regime and the people, and we certainly continue to look for ways to support the Iranian people in their efforts. They seek a different kind of relationship. They seek the ability to influence their leaders. And – but they also seek the fundamental freedoms of expression and association that we think apply universally around the world.
QUESTION: But is giving them political asylum in the United States one of those ways that we could support them?
MR. CROWLEY: I’m not – I can’t – I have not heard of an uptick in those seeking asylum, but it wouldn’t surprise me".

(...)

Two more reformist newspapers shut down.

In fact, on the ground, the situation is even worse: people scarred by permanent pressures and surveillance, lack of freedom of speech and pressures to make people give up thinking. Can we simply be indifferent and watch?

Ukraine, the riddle

Reading Russian politics is not easy. As it is not easy at all to understand its influences in the immediate neighbourhood as Ukraine, Republic of Moldova, Central Asia or Belarus. A "yes" could be a "not" and a "not" could be a "yes". Or we are tempted to read it so, because of our inner naivity and lack of comprehension.

What do we need, in fact, to understand? As the institutions are strictly connected with individuals, we need to know "who's who" and all the Byzantine personal relations dominating the political, economic, social and cultural life. The genealogical approach is useful, as it is necessary to have permanently a direct contact with this world. Sympathies could turn into animosities and love into hate. Or, at least, for me is one of the most useful approach. But, as I rarely address such topics, I do not have any pretention at all to provide a clear perspective.

We will shortly stop now to Ukraine, where the new elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, announced no intention to join NATO. A pleasant news for the ears of Kremlin, that harshly opposed any close and direct relationship between the North-Atlantic Alliance and Kyiv. It was the same in the case of the Baltic states and these states are today members of both EU and NATO. It is worthy to mention that Ukraine is an active member of the dialogue with NATO. Yanukovych's declaration didn't addressed this activity or the eventuality of putting an end to this dialogue. The issue was whether or not to join the Alliance and he answered "no". Or, at least, "not now" - in the next four years of his presidential mandate.

We could question as well: is Ukraine prepared to enter NATO? Are the Ukrainian institutions ready enough to tackle to financial and administrative pressures involved by the full membership to this alliance? Are the Ukrainian military structures prepared to reform significantly in order to be trusted enough for sharing information with the North-Atlantic partners?

Yanukovych was considered one of the main looser after the 2004 "Orange Revolution". But, in reality, the term "revolution" was overrated and for six years already Ukraine fought a serious political instability and lack of reform. The expectations were too high and not took into consideration the Soviet heritage and the problematic structure of the country. It is Russia guilty for the general instability? Moscow is not innocent at all and continues to exert its influence through first and second and third range politicians or more or less public figures. But, it was like this in the Baltic states as well. Or continue to be. And there, the reforms were possible. Maybe the countries are smaller. But, with - most likely - or without Russia - almost impossible - the question is about having a serious track of reforms. A record not achieved during Yuschenko. Whould Yanukovych, whose slogan was "Stability and Order", change somehow this situation? He never made a secret of his support from the part of Moscow and probably he would not disappoint his friends. But, as the case of Belarus showed, when it is about business - gas business - money talks. And, given the large number of friends Russia is having in Ukraine, any choices could be make very easy. Voronin, in Moldova, never denied his Russian close ties. But, he is now recent past history.

Indicted several times for a robbery and moderate assault, or for "mild degree body injuries" in the 70s, autodidact, close friend of business community from Donetsk area - among which Rinat Akhmetov, in Top 50 European Forbes -, where he served twice as governor, former prime minister, Yanukovych is an interesting character in the strange riddle of Russian matrischkas game.

Speed control in foreign affairs

Diplomacy and diplomats are rarely in love with speed. Sometimes, they look like living completely out of time. Your "now" could mean, in terms of diplomatic efforts, at least one year or so. Achieving concrete results is always a matter of patience, thinking more than ten times and mostly, avoiding to show off too soon the results.

This pace is visible in what you could call the big international "files". An example. During the last presidential campaign, president Barack Obama promised to close Guantanamo Bay. But, of course, it is not only a political decision and behind the curtains, lots of diplomatic negotiations were necessary in order to secure a safe final deal.

When it comes to the issue of the Middle East peace process, from outside it is a neverending process, not yet reaching its final solution. But, as long as you have to deal with complicate partners and with weak or lack of coherent institutional frameworks, it is not a wonder we are still far from a solution.

The communications in this issue are extremely delicate, as long as any declaration could, in fact, create expectations or disappointments and, in fact, complicate the diplomatic process. But, making declarations on this issue is a guarantee of winning the attention of the public opinion. And, in some situations, it is hard to avoid this temptation.

It is how I am trying to read the latest French declarations regarding the Palestinian state. In an interview for Journal de Dimanche, published February 21, the French Minister of Foreign and European Affairs, Bernard Kouchner, declared:

What’s important at the moment is to build facts on the ground: France is training Palestinian police officers; businesses are being set up on the West Bank… Then we can envisage the rapid proclamation of a Palestinian State and its immediate recognition by the international community, even before its borders are negotiated – I’d be tempted by that – by [recognition by] European countries. I’m not sure of being followed or even of being right.

The declaration was made ahead of the visit in Paris of the Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas. After the meeting with Abbas, February 22, not other declarations were made. The declaration from Journal de Dimanche could be considered more than fortuit: police officers and business interest are not, by far, the conditions to talk about a state. You need, for example, legal institutions, reliable fiscal authorities, law enforcement authorities etc. And, what is more surprising for somebody who, as Kouchner had a certain experience with "new" states, is the danger of talking - at the official/diplomatic level - about a state without knowing what the borders of this state are.

The experience he apparently gathered in the Balkans, as first UN Representatives and Head of the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), between 1999-2001, was not illustrative enough of the difficult process of building a state? Very hard to understand this concern for "speed" instead of looking for realistic solutions.

February 23, he is back. Together with the Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos, Kouchner signed an article: "A Palestinian state, when?". Stressing the need for a "tough, credible reform based on financial transparency and fighting corruption", to be implemented by the Palestinian Authority, the authors are stressing "the inexorable outlines of the final settlement: absolute security for Israel, recognition when the time comes of a Palestinian State on the basis of the 1967 borders with land swaps, and Jerusalem as the capital of the two States". "Recognition when the times comes". "(...) when the times comes". No speed here.

Spain is currently holding the EU six-month presidency and have a long experience in dealing with the conflict in the Middle East. The diplomacy chief Moratinos was between 1996 and 2003 the European Union special Representative for the Middle East Process. The experience of Spain with the Middle East was controversial in some respects.

Spain continued to consider itself as a bridge between the Arab world and Western Europe, and adopted frequently a pro-Arab stance in most Middle East conflicts. For years, Spain was the only West European country that did not recognize Israel. The Spanish government finally established diplomatic relations with the state of Israel in January 1986. Shortly after, Spain accorded diplomatic status to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) mission in Madrid in August 1986. This political support turned at the end of the 1980s into an expanded trade and cultural relations and Spain intended to profile itself as a bridge between different cultures.

Spain hosted in October 1991, the Madrid Conference, who made possible, for the first time ever the reconsidering of the dialogue formula between the main stake-holders in the Middle East, by focusing on an intensive multilateral and bilateral level of negotiations. In 2005, Spain launched together with Turkey the Alliance of Civilisations aimed to bring together the European heritage and to create bridges between Europe and the Middle East. In the same year, during the OSCE chairmanship-in-office, Spain hosted in Cordoba the OSCE Conference on Anti-Semitism and on Other Forms of Intolerance. Shortly after taking the EU presidency, this January, Spanish authorities supported any kind of efforts "to ensure that Middle East peace negotiations resume as soon as possible".

Everybody is waiting for results in the Middle East. So many years of waiting, so many negotiations started and shortly after aborted, so many public declarations. But, in the same time, pondering a final solution, could be The Solution in the area, and not a solution. Working under the pressure is specific to diplomats. But their main capacity should be to be able to find the best answer. A combination of intuition, general culture and wisdom.

What to do in the case of Greece? Some lessons learned as well

Since a couple of months already, Greece is facing a debt deficit problem. Greece is an EU member and its problems are directly or indirectly affecting the whole European members of the Union. In the same time, the situation, including from the point of view of the history of the relations between Bruxelles and Athens, is offering lots of warnings regarding the future expansions of the European Union.

Trust?

These relations are concerning the trust between the Hellenic national institutions and the European bodies. The politics of expansions are decided on the basis of various factors: from strong lobby - political, individual, economic - from the part of the candidate countries, from political interests - as it was the case after the end of the Cold War, with so many countries once part of the other side of the Iron Curtain reclaiming their right to be "Europeans", or economic interests. The weights of these interests are varying and are not always very clear.

The final decision for entering the EU is took in accordance with the level of fulfillement of the so-called "Copenhagen Criteria", laid down at the June 1993 European Council in Copenhagen. Shortly, these criteria are requiring to the candidates countries: functional democratic governance, respect of the rule of law, respect for human rights and the protection of minorities, fulfilling the criteria for a functional market economy, legislative alignement with the communitarian legislation. More or less, these criteria are imposing various subjective definitions and, probably, should request careful rephrasing on the basis of recent lessons learned. But, by now, there were the main standards followed in deciding the fate of a candidate.

The annual progress of the candidate countries are evaluated in detailed reports, benchmarks for the local political decision makers. The reports are made in accordance with the information provided by local institutions - in the area of judiciary, or economy - as well as non-governmental association and individuals directly involved in the political processes. The key-word for gaining respect is reliability of the sources. Without reliable and transparent information you cannot build policies and, the degree of openness of various public institutions is an important denominator for the free societies, in comparison with the attitudes encountered in totalitarian states.

As for the member states, the need to respect rules and criteria continue, mainly regarding the economic standards. One of the most important set in this respect are those set by the art. 121 (1) of thee European Community Treaty, the so-called Maastricht criteria of convergence. These regulations are available for the EU member states to enter the third stage of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and to adopt the euro as their currency. Greece wanted among the first to join the EU, hoping to tranfer the responsibility for some internal problems to the European Central Bank. The candidacy was kept in check for two years, but soon after Greece joined the euro, in 2001, it emerged that the Greek government lied about its deficit.

The EU opened its first investigation into Greece’s deficit in 2004 after a revision of data revealed that, contrary to previous indications, the deficit had exceeded the EU ceiling every year since the country adopted the euro. But, at stake it was a more serious matter, one of national pride: the gap reached a euro-area record 7.5 percent that year was swollen by costs for hosting the Olympic Games in Athens.

To-do-lists

A country could adopt euro if:

- The inflation rate should be no more than 1.5 percentage points above the rate for the three EU countries with the lowest inflation over the previous year; Budget deficit: This must generally be below 3% of gross domestic product (GDP)

- The national debt should not exceed 60% of GDP, but a country with a higher level of debt can still adopt the euro provided its debt level are falling steadily

- The long-term rate should be no more than two percentage points above the rate in the three EU countries with the lowest inflation over the previous year

- The national currency's exchange rate should have stayed within certain pre-set margins of fluctuation for two years.

But, as the case of Greece already showed, some serious loopholes could be open by the possibility to alternate the responsibility in terms of separation of monetary and fiscal politicies. Greece enjoyed monetary stability - enforced by the strength of the other EU member countries - but lacked completely a coherent fiscal policy. And, again, the matter of trust intervened: Athens authorites lied again about the budget deficit. Added to a national debt of 113 percent of the GDP, a huge lie of a deficit of 4 percent, instead of the real one, of 12.7 percent of the GDP, in 2009. The limit set is of 3 percent.

What to do?

The question is not so difficult: what EU should do in this respect? Plus: what is to be done in the next future, giving the fact that Greece is not the one and only country facing this kind of problems. In fact, with the exception of the big industrial countries, all of new members - from the Baltic to the last two Eastern European countries members Romania and Bulgaria, plus Spain and Portugal - could be exposed to serious economic risks.

As in the case of Greece it is more about serious system problem, but about accountability, helping Athens in this situation will risk to let unsanctioned a behavior creating serious problem to the economy of the European Union.

On the other side, what consequences to follow at the level of the Union if Greece will not benefit of the required help?

The EU informal summit from February 11, set a couple of lines concerning the "Greek file". According to the French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the European Union will monitor Greece's fiscal actions on a monthly basis, as the country bids to cut its massive public deficit. The objective set for 2010, according to Sarkozy, is to reduce the deficit by four percentage points of GDP.

A potential aid package might be delivered as well, with a German contribution of almost 20%. In this situation, apparently, a situation was already found. Greece will be saved and, maybe, due to the strict monitoring system announced, it will be able to correct the not-telling-the-truth-attitude in respect with the EU institutions. In the same time, strict and clever mecanisms of control and reporting, mainly in the area of economic parameters, are more than necessary. New countries from the Western Balkans are making small but strong steps to get closer to Bruxelles. Some of them are inheriting serious system disfunctionalities dued to the lack of institutional cultures. Greece could be a start for redefining and reanalysing the general and particular policies. Including regarding building trustworthy relationships among member countries.

A bit about Dubai and its police. And the Middle East, again

Dubai is one of the seven emirates of the United Arab Emirates. According to the federal distribution of powers, its current ruler since 2006, Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum is also the prime minister and the vice-president of UAE. The Maktoum family, a powerful bedouin clan, is ruling Dubai since 1833. Al Maktoum is a main donor for charitable institutions in the area, initiated in 2007 a foundation dedicated to reduce the educational gap in the Middle East and is a major figure in international thoroughbred horse racing and breeding. His junior wife is Princess Haya bint Al Hussein, daughter of King Hussein of Jordan and half sister of the current king Abdullah II of Jordan.

Despite the fact that basically the main resources of Dubai were petroleum and gas, currently, these are contributing with less than 6%, the main revenues being tourism, property and financial services. Dubai is the second most expensive city in the region - after Tel Aviv, as of July 2009, according to Mercer Human Resource and Economist Intelligence Unit, and 20th most expensive city in the world. It is considered the "shopping capital of the Middle East" and is attracting yearly lots of tourists and business men from the area or outside the region. In the same time it is having as well a dark side, beyond the perfect PR. English is lingua franca and, despite the fact that, according to the article 7 of the Provisional Constitution Islam is the official state, the attitude towards other denominations is relatively open, in comparison with other countries from the region. In 2005, 84% of the population of metropolitan Dubai was foreign-born, about half of them from India.

The role played as a financial hub and touristic attraction, Dubai is as well the place of various challenges for the local authorities. Beyond the illegal immigration and a relative problematic system of social protection - various reports on human rights are outlining the complicate situation facing the immigrants from Asia - common to other countries from the region as well, there are problems regarding prostitution or international crime.

According to a 2007 PBS documentary Dubai - Night Secrets, prostitution in clubs is tolerated by authorities. Many of the foreign women working there are doing freely, with good financial results. According to the census conducted by the Statistics Center of Dubai, the population of the emirate was 1,422,000 as of 2006, which included 1,073,000 males and 349,000 females. Shortly, men outnumber women to a 3 to 1 ratio.

Being a Las Vegas of the Middle East involves as well various other problems, and the last episode is not the first. And, for sure, not the last. Less than a year ago, Sulim Yamadayev, a Chechen leader who was once a close aide to Chechen President Ramazan Kadyrov, was gunned down in the parking lot of the Jumeirah Beach Residence, the luxury Dubai apartment building where he resided for several months, dying later in the hospital. A golden gun, which allegedly belonged to Kadyrov, was left at the crime scene. Dubai Police arrested two suspects in the case, but the main suspect, a Russian Duma deputy named Adam Delimkhanov, is still wanted in the UAE. Delimkhanov represented the United Russia party, is Kadyrov's cousin and one of his close associates. Yamadaev was de facto commander of the Russian military special Battalion Vostok, belonging to the GRU, but was as well a commander on the Russian side in the war with Georgia.

Last April, Dubai police declared the case solved and forwarded to Interpol a request to arrest Delimkhanov. Police chief Tamim called on Russia to “take responsibility in front of the world to control these killers from Chechnya.” For the moment, nothing changed as far, but the local police authorities prooved themselves as efficient and able to solve dangerous international riddles.

The Dubai Police was established with only 29 members back on June 1, 1956, in Naif Fort, which still operates as a police station. It has law enforcement jurisdiction over the emirate; the force is under direct command of the ruler of Dubai, Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum. In this case, solving difficult cases and giving proof of efficiency could mean more than a professional duty.

It consider itself to be the most forward-thinking and progressive Arab police forces accordin to its own website. “Comprising our ranks are 15,000 personnel of the highest educational standard of any organization"..."We are unlike any other Police Force in the world". Many of the Dubai police personnel come from abroad, while others studied and trained in foreign countries, including Egypt. Its slogan - "Quality".

The force is proud to outline that it been the first in the Arab world to use DNA testing in criminal investigations, the first to use electronic finger printing, and the first to implement the concept of a paperless department. As well, it is using an Automatic Vehicle Location. It includes as well a Human Rights Department.

The latest update on its website reports that the “passports of the mercenaries” who killed Mabhouh were not fake. “Dubai immigration officers were trained by European security experts to spot such documents. This training qualifies immigration officers to spot fake passports. They applied these procedures at Dubai airport when the alleged [killers] entered the country,” he said. “No forgery was found in those passports.”

I dare to say the website is extremely well organised and providing various useful information. The public reactions and the statements released the last days are showing a high knowledge of PR and communications strategies. In the same time, communicating all the time it is not always a sign of efficiency. permanently releasing messages is one thing, thinking about what the opportunity is another one. The latest declarations are a bit too hasty, if not ridiculous. Of course it is a matter of pride and publicly, the emirate do not have anything to do than to react and send messages of trust to the other neighbours from the area, overprotecting of possible retaliations. It is, for sure, only a very small episode, in the turmoiled permanent history of the Middle East.

What's next?

Diplomatic rephrasing

Iran "could be making nuclear warhead". A small change, but still a change in the UN usual phraseology, when it comes to Iran.

From the very technical point of view, you do not need too many sentences and diplomatic words to identify how much enriched uranium do you need in order to produce atomic bombs. From the political point of view, you do not need to many imagination to conclude how such a capability could be used by a non-democratic country.

Read my lips? And nothing than my lips?

The case of the Falklands

I always have been very skeptical to use the geopolitical theories when trying to explain foreign affairs. Under a sophisticated wrapping of words you try to excuse basic abuses and "raisons d'etat" of various kinds.

It is easier to explain situations on a case-by-case basis, using more or less recent historical situations, changes of mentalities, economic reasons, irational decisions took by decision-makers laking any kind of rationality.

Islands always played a big role in our human builded imagination, proof being the utopian and SF stories. Beyond literature and fantasies, islands were important as strategical avanposts and ways to exert certain influences. Or, at least, projecting such intentions. Cyprus could be a good example from this point of view, as a possible gate of Europe to the Middle East as well as a junction point of various cultures and influences.

On the other side, our need for resources, directly proportional with the sophistication of our needs and the increase of population is a reality of the last decade. We need more and the resources identified by far are limited. Thus, loooking for new potential energy hubs is a counter time long ride. Is not geopolitics or desire to impose a certain power, but a need of survival. Up to the position on the evolution scale, the survival is, of course, perceived differently.

Different as well are also the pressure and, not least, political resources the countries could use in order to defend and protect their economical interest. From this point of view, the recent tensions between Argentina and the UK around the issue of Falklands are showing the need to go beyond the old Cold War confrontational paradigm and think at a very practical level.

The increasing dependence of natural resources is changing on short, medium and long term habits and communities. And, more or less it is a change of perception among the representatives of the young generation, less focus on recent painful historical episodes and more interested about a better future. These perceptions could maintain a permanent pressure against over reacting outside pressure. If the drilling will start or not, or if meanwhile behind the mediatic buzz, negotiations are on the way, the final solution of the current conflict - but not the whole conflict - cannot neglect the high pressure of including both the concern for sharing more resources, but taking into account as well the needs of the local communities. Because, sooner or later, policies - including in foreign policy - will have to be understood more than confrontations of powers - in geopolitical terms - but as providing content and including pertinent solutions - as the environmental aspects together with answers to social and economic aspects.

For the moment, it looks like nother utopia of the island.

Dubai

The recent killing of Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, in Dubai, opened thousand of discussions about secret services, honour, diplomacy, who should be arrested and why and for how long.

We could see some consequences of the current - mediatic mostly - arguments, and could expect other changes when a new and serious discussion about the plans of peace in the Middle East will be reopened. Openly speaking, some of the recent media reports and comments I've seen in the last days are more than ridiculous, and do not have nothing to do with intelligence, the human intelligence.

But, what I missed - hope it is only a problem of my incapacity to access the best journalistic sources - is the following point of view: Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was not an innocent being walking on the streets of Dubai looking for the best icecream in the Arab world. He assumed he killed two persons and was part of a network of smuggling weapons. If somebody will perpetrate at least one of these acts, in a Western country, will be put on trial, convincted and sent to prison. Eventually, for the rest of his life. In this case, as far as I remember, it was not the case. He travelled in the Middle East, he confessed in the media about the killing and how he succeeded to escape. I do not know if he is a hero for the local public opinion in the region. But, at least, somebody who did what he did and still free could encourage many other people - youngsters, for example - to do the same, without taking care of being convicted.

At the end of the day, in fact, it is a matter of having laws, respecting it, respecting the rule of law.

Why?

A very candid and innocent question. Maybe more than one.

I am watching these days the last "evolutions" in the case of Iran. I previously watches what happened during the post-electoral unrest. As well as the moves from the nuclear camp.

Thus: why the usual anti-atomic movements are silent in this case? It is more than pollution here, it is a thread regarding the regional stability in the Middle East. A similar questio regarding the North Korea nuclear program, in a country were people are starving, but their regime is strengthening the atomic profile.

And: when people demonstrating against their government and are killed in the street, it is more than human to reject such an attitude. It is not about the clash of civilisations or the autonomy to take decisions. But, about human rights and the right of these people to refuse to be burried under the commitments an undemocratic power is asking them. Is their right to tell the world they are alive. Where are those are worried about the human rights in the Middle East? Iran is a proud member of the UN. It is a matter of credibility and accountability of the international institutions. And to let people being killed because a religious institution decided to, is a deep misunderstanding of the multiculturalism.