Is Angola ready for the elections?

On August 31, Angola will organize parliamentary elections, for the first time since the end of the civil war. For 27 years after Angola became independent from Portugal, the country was revaged by a civil war that made over 300,000 victims. 

The current president, Jose Eduardo dos Santos is in power for 33 years and the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) - which is expected to win again - is in power since 1975. During the Cold War, MPLA benefited from the support of Cuba and the Soviet Union. The main opposition is represented by the Union for the Total Liberation of Angola (UNITA) which includes former Army rebels and which is very active in the oil-rich enclave of Cabinda. Cabinda is an important source of oil for the US and China. Angola is rich in other natural resources, as gold, uranium, diamonds and gas.

In 2001, a young movement was created following the model of the 'Arab spring', but the organizers are usually harassed by the police and the representatives of the security forces - and the so-called 'caenches', muscle men. A new Constitution was adopted in 2010, but the level of application depends at a great extent by the good will of the Santos regime. 

According to a recent report by Human Rights Watch, there are a couple of problems that the authorities in Luanda should consider seriously in order to guarantee a free and fair choice. 

The main observations of HRW are:

- the need to limit the political and security forces involvement in harassing media and the political oppositions;

- the need to clarify the situation of organizers of anti-governmental protests that disappeared since March;

- the National Election Commission should guarantee the impartiality of the electoral process.

Even though the results of the elections are predictable, the content of change depends at a great extent of the change taking place till the next elections is hard to predict. 

Some knowledgeable words about the Muslim Brotherhood

When it comes to decision-making process in the field of foreign affairs, I strongly believe that the local knowledge is very important. As an experienced top diplomat, you need to know not only the local culture, but also the local psychology and the deep history of some political parties and movements.

Especially when in discussion is the Middle East, many Western countries wish more than understand the reality. Of course it is difficult to clearly refuse to be in touch with the elected representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, but at least, they could better prepare their homeworks and be more reserved when it comes to patting them all smiles on the shoulder.

For those curious to find out more about the 'Brothers', whose networks covers all the Muslim countries in North Africa and the most of the Middle East, here is a short description and history of the gang, by a former ambassador of Israel in Jordan and Egypt, as part of Moshe Dayan Center dedicated series.

Another interesting information about the top leadership of the Brotherhood is provided in this analysis of the Council on Foreign Relations. When reading the couple of lines dedicated to the current president of Egypt, I could not resist but thinking about Ahmadinejad - a level 2 bureaucrat with good connections (in the latest case, the Revolutionary Guards). It seems that Dr. Khairat al Shater is someone that we will hear about soon more often in the next months. 

Daily Media Digest

N. Africa and the Middle East


Libya: UN approved tough sanctions, UK Forces resumed the rescue,
Tunisia: three killed during the clashes
Yemen: accusations of splitting the country
Pledges for competitive elections in Egypt
Bahrain opposition leader returns from exile

Latin America

Political prisoners freed in Cuba
Dialogue between Uruguay and Argentina

Asia


North Korea is threatening the South
Tightened security in Shanghai

Africa

Zimbabwe: Constitutional discussions in danger
Gunfire in Abidjan

Europe

Ireland: Fine Gael's victory
Cameron's clarifications about the "multiculturalism" speech
Timelines of Assange's trial - in the perspective of his extradition to Sweden
Which league plays Berlusconi?
Clashes and anti-governmental protests in Croatia

US and Canada

Canada's immigration policy
US: The danger of budget cuts

New Zealand and Australia


Australia: Tougher sanctions against Gaddafi
New Zealand: The death toll

Daily Media Digest

Middle East

Al Jazeera: Death toll in Libya - 200 persons, at least
Yemen: Separatist leader arrested and Students continue the protests against the president
Bahrain under fire. US top-diplomat call for reforms "now"
Newsweek, on Egypt: The Facebook freedom fighters and The tragedy of Hosni Mubarak
Iran: Rafsanjani's daughter arrested
US vote and the UN Resolution on Settlements. The reactions from the Arab world: Arab League, Palestinian protests, Jordan regrets

Europe


EU bets on Ireland's recovery
Bilbao: Support for the Basque party
Romania, Bulgaria and Schengen


Latin America


Dissident freed in Cuba
Calls for boosting ties with the Middle East
Waiting for Obama
Political movies at Berlinale


Asia


Chinese security officials respond to call for protests
Japan to dig site linked to WWII human experiment


Africa


Protests in Morocco, asking the limitations of King's powers
EU's answer to the protests in North Africa
Uganda: Controversial vote

Global trends

G-20 meeting is over

Policies of aid

Recently, UN opened a website aiming to allow a better follow-up of the ways in which the aid for Haiti is directed and used. A good initiative, but it is only a start in order to offer a bigger transparency and, finally accountabiliy of the ways in which the financial support for countries in need is used - and, sometimes, abused.

The current policies of aid is often in center of debates contesting the lack of efficiency and the contribution in increasing corruption and poverty. The critiques are mostly referring to Africa, and one of the last references I´ve read recently is the book of Dambissa Moyo, Dead Aid. Why is not working and how there is another way for Africa.

There are many food for thought information and data regarding the desperate situation from Africa and the lack of consistency of the sustained Western effort in delivering lots of aids and financial incentives to the continent. And, very important, that you need to have a serious support and background in these efforts coming from the region, as the local ownership might be an incentive in creating responsibilities and increasing the efficiency in using the money. In other words, an "anti-colonialistic" and "anti-orientalistic" frame in reconsidering the Western perspectives on Africa, beyond the more or less "entertainement" frame where pop stars are promoting their social profiles using the poverty from the region as a paravan.

Some paradoxes, confirmed by the data used in the book, are rising various questions regarding the lack of efficiency of the last decades efforts directed to Africa - in comparison, for example, with the post-WWII Marshall Plan, for example. For example, between 1970 and 1998, when the aid flows to Africa were at their peak, the poverty rate rose from 11 to 66%. The continent became fully depend on the foreign aid: "Presenty, Africa receives development assistance worth almost 15% of its GDP - or more than four times the Marshall Plan at its high. Given Africa´s poor economic performance in the past fifty years,while billions of dollars of aid have poured in, it is hard to grasp how another swathe of billions will somehow turn Africa´s aid experience into one of success" (p.36). In addition, the system disfunctionalities apparently were nurtured by the foreign financial support, with rampant corruption, political instability and institutional vulnerabilities.

The books do not provide solution(s) and it is rather a general evaluation of the situation, focusing more on general examples than on a case-by-case analysis of the situation. In many respects, I felt the need of more information and reports and economic references. An interesting solution outlined, but not too much developed further is to use the policy of bond market, which I find a creative alternative, but in order to emit bonds, you need a reliable market, a case not very sure for many African countries. The final pledge for more creativity is welcomed, but in the case of political science, you need more stable elements in order to create long term perspectives for institutional and, not less important, economic development.

In fact, my feeling after reading this book was that I agreed with many ideas regarding the failure of the policies of aid and I had more insights about the scale of the lack of achievements, but I am still moving around understanding how it is possible to go beyond the current level of underdevelopment. Maybe an approach based on investigative journalism skills will reveal more about the scale of lack of success and, by identifyng clearly - and not only rhetorically - the main actors - will be possible to build up further reliable scripts for new perspective(s).

A future for Sudan?

Let's first see what are the prospects, according to the policy of Obama administration.

Blogs grow up

in Madagascar crisis.

Alternative information, counter-weight to media tools controled by the state. And cyber-space is open for everyone with an Internet connection.

Clinton and Africa

for the moment, it looks like a succesful meeting.

Clinton is quite familiar with the African problems and visited the continent several times as a first lady and thereafter. A guarantee she could understand better the emergencies from this region. Because, otherwise, the nice smiles in the front of the camera and the photo opportunities with victims of various human and natural calamities is quite "normal".

What about Sudan? The president, Omar al-Bashir, indicted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, is moving freely and explains himself in interviews in the international media.

Clinton set to meet Congo leader

The US top-diplomat is on a seven nation African tour.

What to do with Eritrea?

The African tour - the schedule.

Int'l court to decide on Darfur warrant

Mike Corder

AP

February 23

Judges at the International Criminal Court said Monday they will announce next week whether they will order the arrest of Sudan's president on charges including genocide and crimes against humanity in Darfur.

Prosecutors at the world's first permanent war crimes tribunal asked last July for a warrant, accusing Omar al-Bashir of masterminding a campaign of murder, torture and rape by government troops and Arab militias in the Darfur region.

The president would be the first sitting head of state ordered arrested by the court.

But even if the judges issue a warrant on any or all of the 10 charges in their ruling March 4, it remains unlikely al-Bashir will be sent to the court's headquarters in The Hague any time soon. Sudan does not recognize the court's jurisdiction and refuses to hand over suspects.

It is unusual for judges to announce when they plan to publicize such a decision — but they have never previously tackled such a high-profile case since the court started work in 2002.

In a written statement, the three judges on the panel said they announced the date because they were "deeply concerned" at rumors about their decision.

Arab and African nations have lobbied for the court to drop or postpone the case against al-Bashir as his government and rebels seek a peace deal that would end fighting in the vast desert region of Darfur.

The war there began in 2003 when rebel groups took up arms against the government complaining of discrimination and neglect. U.N. officials say up to 300,000 people have died and 2.7 million have fled their homes.

Sudan's intelligence chief Salah Abdallah has warned the country could revert to hard-line Islamic rule if al-Bashir is indicted.

"Our message to those who stand behind the ICC is that we were Islamic fundamentalists but have become moderate and civilized and this continues to be our conviction," Abdallah said in comments carried Saturday by Sudanese newspapers. "If they press us to return to our past position, we will no doubt return. And if they want us to return into hard-liners anew, that is a simple thing to do. And we are capable of doing it."

The court has launched cases in Congo, Uganda, Central African Republic and Sudan but has only four suspects in its custody, all of them Congolese militia leaders. The first trial started last month, with Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga pleading innocent to charges of recruiting and using child soldiers.

Lebanon marks fourth Hariri murder anniversary

Ten of thousands of people gathered this Saturday in Lebanon, to commemorate the fourth anniversary of the killing of the former Prime-Minister Rafik Hariri. The participants lashed out at Syria and the Lebanese opposition, and campaigned for the upcoming parliamentary elections in June. According to local media reports, 13 persons were wounded in stone attacks at the end of the demonstration.


AFP
February 13

Lebanon on Saturday commemorated the fourth anniversary of ex-premier Rafik Hariri's assassination as final preparations are underway for the international tribunal set up to bring his killers to justice.

The Western-backed parliamentary majority has urged supporters to show up in force at Martyr's Square in central Beirut to demand justice for Hariri and other anti-Syrian figures killed in Lebanon in the last four years.

"They died so that the nation can rise again. The international tribunal will render justice for everyone," according to placards posted throughout the city ahead of the rally.

Hariri died in a massive car bombing in February 2005 that also killed 22 others. The assassination was widely blamed on then Lebanese power-broker Syria, which has denied any involvement.

The attack on the Beirut seafront was one of the worst acts of political violence to rock Lebanon since the 1975-1990 civil war, and led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops after a 29-year presence.

The UN tribunal to try Hariri's alleged killers is due to open its doors on March 1, housed in the former headquarters of the Dutch intelligence service on the outskirts of The Hague.

The tribunal will also try those presumed responsible for a series of attacks on other Lebanese political and media figures.

US President Barack Obama on Thursday vowed to support UN moves to bring to justice Hariri's killers.

"As we share our grief with the Lebanese people over the loss of prime minister Hariri, we also share our conviction that his sacrifice will not be in vain," Obama said in a statement

"The United States fully supports the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, whose work will begin in a few weeks, to bring those responsible for this horrific crime and those that followed to justice."

MP Moustapha Allouch, a member of the parliamentary bloc headed by the slain ex-premier's son and political heir, Saad Hariri, said he had no doubt that the tribunal will serve its purpose.

"There are those who had doubts about the tribunal and thought it was a political instrument but it has now become a reality," Allouch told AFP.

Seven suspects have been arrested in connection with Hariri's assassination. Among them are four generals, including the former head of Lebanese state security.

The UN probe has also implicated senior officials from Syria but Damascus has strongly denied any connection with Hariri's death and accuses Washington of using the tribunal as a political weapon.

The Hezbollah-led alliance in Lebanon, which is backed by Syria and Iran, for its part is demanding full transparency as far as the UN probe and tribunal.

"We don't want the ongoing investigation and the tribunal to be politicized because any such move would affect credibility," Hezbollah MP Hassan Hoballah told AFP.

Meanwhile the alliance led by the militant group has accused the parliamentary majority of using Saturday's commemoration to rally voters ahead of legislative elections in June.

Christian leader Michel Aoun, who is allied with Hezbollah, said earlier this week that Hariri's death was "paying off electorally" for the majority.

Sundance films shine spotlight on global struggles

Reuters

PARK CITY, Utah - A charismatic U.N. diplomat and a determined international prosecutor were profiled at the Sundance Film Festival this week in films highlighting their struggles for justice and nation building.

"Sergio" tells of U.N. official Sergio Vieira de Mello, who helped create an independent East Timor before he was killed in Iraq. "The Reckoning" follows International Criminal Court chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo and his team as they fight to prosecute war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity.

Both films, which are in the U.S. documentary competition of the independent film festival, also show their protagonists fighting international bureaucracy.

"The best advocates for human rights have to be congenital optimists," said Pamela Yates, who directed "The Reckoning."

"They have to be willing to take the blows and get up the next day to go to work -- (Moreno-Ocampo) is definitely one of those people."

The International Criminal Court (ICC) was established in 2002 and Moreno-Ocampo was elected chief prosecutor the following year. The court now has 108 member states.

"I thought, isn't it amazing that we have an International Criminal Court that can try a sitting head of state for genocide," Yates said in an interview. "That's the extreme, but actually in the course of making the film the extreme came to pass."

In July 2008 the court indicted Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, accusing his state apparatus of killing at least 35,000 people in the Darfur region and being responsible for the deaths of another 100,000 through hunger and disease.

HARD TO ENFORCE

However, the ICC cannot arrest people even after they are indicted, Yates said. "The ICC has no police force so they have to rely on the member states to effect the arrests."

Sudan is not a member state, and Al-Bashir has said he will not cooperate with the court, which has also targeted rebel leaders in Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic.

Yates began filming three years ago and said she aimed to encourage a global debate about international justice while also boosting the court.

Greg Barker, director of "Sergio," said that Vieira de Mello, a former U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, was an extraordinary man who recognized the U.N.'s flaws but still believed it represented the best hope for people in distress around the world.

"Something about Sergio and his nuanced approach to seeing the world and dealing with complicated problems in a very sophisticated way just appealed to me," Barker said of the Brazilian, who died in Iraq in a truck bomb attack in 2003 aged 55. Had he lived, he might have been a future U.N. Secretary-General.

"On just pure story level it was too good to pass up, just the drama of the day (he died) plus this guy as the main character -- he's just so compelling, he's like a natural movie star, he jumps off the screen," Barker said.

Barker mixes an account of Vieira de Mello's death with scenes from his career, which included working in countries such as Mozambique, Cyprus, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and the former Yugoslavia.

Hunger strike for Zimbabwe change

BBC

Archbishop Desmond Tutu is among activists in southern Africa who have launched a fast and hunger strike in solidarity with the people of Zimbabwe.

The new Save Zimbabwe Now movement says African leaders must abandon the policy of quiet diplomacy and recognise there is no legal government in Zimbabwe.

A Johannesburg Methodist church, long a place of refuge for Zimbabweans in exile, will be the protesters' base.

Power-sharing plans in Zimbabwe remain stalled since a deal in September.

President Robert Mugabe and opposition factions ended 12 hours of talks on Tuesday with no progress.

The activists said they would protest next Monday at a special regional summit, set for South Africa or Botswana, that has been convened in the latest effort to break the deadlock.

'Lost legitimacy'

The BBC's Peter Biles in Johannesburg says with no end in sight to Zimbabwe's political impasse, the daily suffering of ordinary people goes on.

Food shortages, a cholera epidemic, the collapse of the health and education systems, and an economic meltdown are among Zimbabwe's litany of woes.

The Methodist church in the centre of Johannesburg was draped on Wednesday with anti-Mugabe banners as well as the drying laundry of the hundreds of Zimbabweans living there.

Kumi Naidoo, a veteran of the anti-apartheid movement, began a 21-day, water-only fast.

Retired Cape Town Archbishop Tutu, 77, long among Mr Mugabe's sharpest critics, will fast one day a week.

The Nobel laureate has in the past urged the international community to use the threat of force to oust Mr Mugabe.

Human rights activist Graca Machel, who is also the wife of former South African President Nelson Mandela, attended the launch at the church but said she would not be fasting for personal reasons.

The 63-year-old said of Mr Mugabe's administration: "Any government which goes and assaults its own people has lost any kind of legitimacy, completely."

Wilson Mugabe, a pastor from Zimbabwe who is not related to its president, broke down in tears as he told the congregation about the plight of his country men and women.

"Please hear us as Zimbabweans, we've suffered enough," he said.

Ms Machel and Mr Tutu are both members of the Elders, an international team of statesmen founded by Mr Mandela and including ex-US President Jimmy Carter, which tries to find solutions to global crises.

In November, Mr Mugabe's government barred the Elders from making a fact-finding tour of Zimbabwe.

P.S. Perhaps a more efficient protest would be to gather food and basic supplies for the people in Zimbabwe. People dying in Africa because of hunger or wars is the "normality". The force of real solidarity, of people offering a real platform for change appears a harder task.

Ethiopia troops leave Mogadishu

It could be the end of the war or not. The conflict is not over and Somalia is only a generic name of a country lacking government or any other functional institutions.

Darfur: Neverending war

Darfur, still fighting at the brinks of chaos.

Holiday mood in Africa

This period of year is very very busy in Africa, as many plots and coups and turmoils are at the order of the day in:

Guinea

Zimbabwe

resignations and expected turmoil in Somalia

continuing conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia

Cholera threat in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe’s health system is in collapse, the local doctors fearing a wave of deaths, with a cholera epidemic sweeping through the capital city of Harare. Cholera might outbreak rapidly, 72 cases being already identified in South Africa. According to the non-governmental group Doctors without Borders (MSF), the epidemic is threatening up to 1.4 million people in Zimbabwe. The country is under the rule of president Robert Mugabe, accused of massive violations of human rights. The country is facing a perpetual economic crisis with serious shortages of basic products. In august 2008, the inflation hit 11,200,000 percent, with an expected annual rate of inflation of more than 230 million percent. Beginning of this November, the international non-governmental organization the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria accused the government of misusing a 7.3 million USD grant.

Congo - 1,250 people dying daily

The natural resources of a country could represent a valuable source of wealth. The primordial condition is to set up proper, functional institutions and to have the minimal basis of a state. If not, everything could be at the mercy of small or larger entropic groups with terrific effects on the population and the resources are spoiled in the advantages of military/armed groups. In Congo, for example, since 1998, 5, 400,000 people have died because of a deadly conflict, the equivalent of the population of Denmark.
The total population is of 65.75 million, distributed on 905,063 square miles, being the third largest country by area in Africa. It is reach in natural resources, as diamonds, copper, zinc and coltan.
The victims are dying mostly because of hunger and diseases.
The Democratic Republic of Congo, former Belgian colony, acquired its independence in 1960. After the assassination of Patrice Lumumba, the power was seized and kept for 30 years by Mobutu Sese Seko, whose reign was rotten by corruption and dictatorship. In 1994, he was lashed following a civil war, nurtured by the Rwandan refugees, after the Hutu’s massacre of the Tutsi tribe, who occupied the Eastern part of the country. Laurent D. Kabila, a former rebel himself, became president in 1997. He was later assassinated in 2001 and followed by his son Joseph. Despite some efforts to create certain normality, by organising elections – the first free elections ever, in 2006, confirming Joseph Kabila as president – or signing peace accords, in 2003, the conflict between various warrior groups are continuing. According to International Rescue Committee, almost 1.250 people are dying daily, while the UN is hesitating to take a final decision to send more troops in the area.

Moammar Gaddafi is talking to the West

Libya succeeded to have a very successful image lifting in the last years. Moammar Gaddhafi and his sons are having these days intensive dialog with both US and EU despite the fact that from the democratic point of view the country is very far from an incipient democracy – no political parties, no freedom of speech, no democratic institutions. But, as the Chinese example is showing quite well, a certain formula of capitalism, with a strong state involvement could survive, with the condition of having adequate resources.

In March 2008, the Middle East Institute from Washington DC, held an international conference „Libya, Africa & The West” http://www.mideasti.org/conference/libya-africa-west outlining and explaining the overall interest to this country from the last period.