Book review: Daring to Drive, Manal al-Sharif

Manal al-Sharif is worldwide known for her bold decision to face the traditional anti-women approach of Saudi authorities of forbidding women to drive. But it is more than that, although, her stubborness turned her into a symbol of women self-awareness not only in her country, but in the entire Middle East and the world. 

In her memoir, Daring to Drive, she tells her story, sharing her experience about growing up as a girl and being the target and victim of men's hate and opression. I was thinking twice before using this word, opression, but this is how the women situation in this country looks like: a slave that should silently follow the rules created by men. 

Manal al-Sharif dares not only to drive, but also to challenge those absurdities, some of them not necessarily part of the religious teachings, but recent time inventions. An educated women, with a traditional background and her own history of religious observance, she is carefully observing the changes undergone by the Saudi Arabia while noticing the constant marginalization of women from the public sphere. From discrimination at school and at the market place to physical violence within the family, women are always the target and never properly protected by the law against abuses. 

But in a inter-connected world as ours, it is hard to keep the situation without raising protests and inspire online social unrest. Manal did her part, and her achievements is an example for other women in the area to dare too, because cowards have all to lose. Her resilience and decision to go forward is an encouragement for women all over the world, but particularly in women-unfriendly countries like Saudi Arabia.

A recommended read to anyone interested in this part of the world, but also curious about women rights movements in the time of the Internet.

Rating: 4 stars

Disclaimer: Book offered by the publisher in exchange for an honest review

Hollande in Lebanon, what to expect

source: sightcall.com

When things are not going on as expected on the home affairs front, the foreign policy can help. At least when it comes to such a special relationship as the one between France and Lebanon.

French president, Francois Hollande is expected in Beirut the 16th of April for a working visit, part of a tour in the region between 16-18 April which includes also Egypt - state visit -and Jordan - meeting with King Abdullah II regarding the regional partnership and the fight against terrorism.

The current situation in Lebanon

Since the end of the mandate of the previous president Michel Suleiman in September 2014, the presidency of Lebanon is vacant. Compared to other situations when the various factions haven't reach an agreement for the next presidential candidate that lead to open conflicts, this time things seem to be less explosive. Hollande is supposed to express during his visit the support for coexistence and proper functioning of the local institutions, including the presidency.

The country was also affected by the Syrian civil war, with refugee camps in the country. France kept a very low profile in the issue of refugees, compared to the German EU partner and the French president is interested in helping the country with intelligence and financial support for diminishing the war repercurssions.

In most situations to be addressed, the French president is expected to offer commitment towards stability without offering concrete solutions. Another surprising fact is that during the war in Syria, the country remained stable.

In the post-war Syria, France would prefer a minimal influence of both hungry for more regional power actors Iran and Turkey, a trend which on long term can positively influence the internal situation in Lebanon too.

However, under the curtains, France keeps a permanent contact with Iran, an important player in the country with high interests through the support for the terrorist organization Hezbollah. The influence of France in this case is however limited, a major influencer being rather Russia, with good relations on both sides. In an interview with Al Mayadeen TV on March 21, the secretary general of the terrorist organisation, Hassan Nassrallah, noticed the 'common goals' between Hezbollah, Iran and Russia. It is the usual terrorist propaganda for the consumption of the Arab public, as an experienced diplomat as Lavrov sees much further than this. As for now, Russia can help the settlemet of an agreement for the election of a new president. For example.

Another important aspect of the French-Lebanese agenda is the delivery of French weapons, part of a $3 billion grant by Saudi Arabia, the highest ever given to the military sector. France also encourages Saudi Arabia's influence in the country, as a counter-balance to the Iranians. 

French-Lebanese strong connections

Out of the many others former French colonies, Lebanon always remains a special partner. Besides the interest of so many wealthy countries to get involved in the local affairs, not only for a good cause, France remains the main source of foreign direct investment. Thanks to France, Lebanon is one of the main Mediterranean beneficiaries of financial and technical assistance from the EU. Again, the friends for benefits from the region do not hurry up to support the economy, only the croonies from Hezbollah.

In addition, thousands of French-Lebanese citizens live and work in Lebanon, and around 250,000 people of Lebanese origin live in France. 

France continues to be influential but not the predominant power in the region. The effects of this visit, scheduled for last year but delayed for security reasons, are not to be seen immediately, but France keeps playing hard games in the Middle East and given the comptitors, it is preferably to many, if not most of them. 

Meir Dagan, almost the end of an era

The picture of his grandfather before death used to be in his office

The death of the former cheif of Mossad for nine years, Meir Dagan, can be almost the end of an era, of an old generation of public personalities in Israel whose personalities were defined by the World War II. Dagan, born as Huberman, on the train between Soviet Union and Poland in 1945, used to have in his office the picture of his grandfather down on his knees before being killed by Nazis, made a life mission that Holocaust 'will never happen again'. 

Dagan served as director of the Israel's most powerful intelligence agency beetween 2002 and 2011, under three prime-ministers: Ariel Sharon, Ehud Olmert and Benjamin Netanyahu. He ended his mandate on medical reasons, although during the exhange of declarations during the last years elections, Netanyahu affirmed that in fact he refused to extend his mandate. Dagan offered to the media the proof of his letter resignation letter where he requested the replacement. 

Officer of the Israeli Defense Force - IDF - he fought during the Yom Kippur War and the 1982 Lebanon War. As chief of Mossad, he ordered several operations, some of them together with other secret services, aimed at killing terrorists who put in dangerous the state of Israel. During one of them, for instance, operated together with the CIA, was killed Imad Mughniyeh, the so-called Minister of Defence of Hezbollah. After becoming a public figure, he often criticised Netanyahu for the way in which he managed the Iran problem and was a harsh opponent of the idea of an Israeli attack against Tehran. In Dagan's opinion, the then and current prime-minister turned Iran into an Israeli problem, thus limiting the interest of the rest of the world in the issue. During the last elections, he supported Isaac Herzog, part of a tandem with Tzipi Livni that used to work for the Mossad during his mandate.

Dagan was also active in the business sector, and was an amateur painter and a vegetarian too. 

Egypt versus Iran, and not only

In an interview offered to a very pro-Iran sympathetic Dieter Bednarz from Spiegel the last week, the foreign minister of Egypt, Sameh Hassan Shoukry outlined several times the unsatisfaction with the constant involvement of Iran in the internal affairs of other countries from region, such as Syria, Bahrain, Iraq or Yemen.Following the latest evolutions in the region and the high proof of Iranian influence especially in Yemen and Syria, based on an expansionist conception focused on strengthening of religious - Shiilte - ties in the region, Egypt stays for now on the side of the opposition to Tehran politics, similarly with Saudi Arabia. Egypt does not  have diplomatic relations with Iran, following the peace treaty with Israel. 

Currenly, Egypt is coping with a resurgence of ISIS regroupement in Sinai,which jeopardizes not only the security in the region, but also tends to isolate Egypt. In the last years, the country kept losing significant amounts of money due to the diminishing of touristic presence. 

In the interview offered to Der Spiegel; Shoukry repeats on several occassions that Tehran involvement is wrong and the opposition against the Iranian officials is justified, including through the measures took against its influence agents, such it was the case of the Shiite leader Nimr Baqir al-Nimr. The Sheikh was condemned to death the 2nd of January. He often pledged for religious freedom in the Kingdom who practices a Wahhabi version of Sunni islam and considers the Shi'a as heretics. Western media and NGOs portrays the sheikh as a fighter for religious freedom. 

Shoukry, a close confident to current president Sisi and former ambassador in the US, Austria and Switzerland during Mubarak, gave the interview before his official visit to Germany.

As things look now, there is Iran against the rest of independent states in the region, with no benefits for anyone, especially for the regional stability.

Book review: The Arab Revolutions

I saw this German collective volume shortly after it was published and was tempted to buy it immediately, interested to read the ideas about the new situation in the Middle East from a German perspective. The Germans were always very interested in the area and they have a lot of well trained specialists that travel often in the area, for academic and economic purposes.

However, I did not expect too much to find so many data and only few evaluations, if any, of the current situation. The overall tone of the book - analysing the 'revolutions' (a term whose opportunity is not discussed at all) in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia, Jordan, UAE, Libya - is naively optimistic, as most cases are seen as a fight of 'good' vs. 'evil'. I did not identified any critical perspective of the situation and even less the seeds of the current Islamist debacle in almost the entire area.

For someone with a fresh mind, the book will offer a lot of details and historical information about the 'revolutionary' moment and thus, could be easily used as a basic source for documenting the situation in the Middle East. 

New story of UNFIL Mandate in Lebanon

In a couple of days, UNFIL Mandate in Lebanon is about to expire. In August 2010, the mandate was extended for another two years.

Due to the tensed situation in the region, it could be possible to expend another extension of the mandate. Some local politicians even requested the expansion of the mandate within the joint border with Syria. At the end of June, Turkey already decided to continue to allow its military in UNFIL for one more year.

The extension should be decided by the UN Security Council. 

After so many tensions and conflicts, Lebanon continues to be a stronghold of influences from Syria and Iran. More or less openly, the official representatives of this country are regularly involved in influence the daily local policies. Very often, the literary sources mention the Lebanon as the 'Paris of the Middle East' and maybe it used to be so - apparently, Paris is the fascination cities of so many continents and countries than the reference is sometimes too stereotypical to be at least 50% true - but how culture could flourish when it is no independence and secret services are careful to oppose any manifestation of independence. In comparison with Syria, the Lebanese intellectuals did not cope with the same pressures, but the regular presence of Hizbullah terrorist within their borders diminished clearly the cultural strength and attractivity of Lebanon. 

Maybe, one day.

Stratfor: 'The Israeli Crisis'

The Israeli Crisis is the name of the latest analysis of Stratfor. 

The evaluation of the threats faced by Israel is interesting, but this was always the situation from the beginning of the history of the state of Israel. What I consider it is stereotypical and repeated ad nauseam without understanding the real challenges is the following fragment of sentence: 'Israel's national security - particularly if its strategic environment deteriorates - rests on the US'. The international community should realize that the security and existence of the state of Israel is not a matter of special relationship between Washington and Jerusalem (the capital city of the state of Israel, fyi), but a consideration of life and death of democracy. It is not a gamble under the table in order to do not harm the new and old Arab friends from the Middle East, but it is a test of democracy and credibility of the European institutions. The advantage of the chaotic and inarticulated policies of Obama administration in the Middle East was that it left a lot of place for the Israeli diplomacy to state its interests which are not in contradiction with the overall interests of the democractic community.

The comparison between the state of Israel and the French Third Republic would deserve, maybe, a better explanation beyond stylistic rhetorics. Till then, let's hope that the democracies and the wise people from Bruxelles will realize that the state of Israel should exist and enjoy the autonomy of a free and autonomous state. Otherwise, we may rather speak about the 'democracy crisis'.

EU and Syria

I continue to keep my strong opinion that in the case of Syria, EU was completely out of sight. It could be because EU doesn't matter too much in the area, but also because it did not find any convincing and reliable way to support its opinions. When you do not have any influence and credibility in time of peace, do not expect to find one out of the box during the war. And, as many from the EU are well aware, Syria is in war for more than 12 months.

When it comes to the coercition measures, EU restricted the freedom of movement of top Syrian officials and forbade the exportation of luxury goods to Syria. Also, top EU ladies aired a video appeal to Assad's elegant wife to convince his husband to give up the slaughtering of his own people. 

Today, the European Council decided to impose the right to local authorities the right to inspect vessels and aircrafts bound for Syria, in search of weapons. The Brussels authorities expressed their concern regarding the situation of Syrian refugees, some of them recently returned back from Lebanon. 

Maybe once the war will be over, EU should reconsider its role and strategy regarding not only Syria, but the Middle East in general, and end up by focusing obsessively only on one issue managed disastrously partly for leftist bias, partly for complete lack of sensibility for the subject. 

Some knowledgeable words about the Muslim Brotherhood

When it comes to decision-making process in the field of foreign affairs, I strongly believe that the local knowledge is very important. As an experienced top diplomat, you need to know not only the local culture, but also the local psychology and the deep history of some political parties and movements.

Especially when in discussion is the Middle East, many Western countries wish more than understand the reality. Of course it is difficult to clearly refuse to be in touch with the elected representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, but at least, they could better prepare their homeworks and be more reserved when it comes to patting them all smiles on the shoulder.

For those curious to find out more about the 'Brothers', whose networks covers all the Muslim countries in North Africa and the most of the Middle East, here is a short description and history of the gang, by a former ambassador of Israel in Jordan and Egypt, as part of Moshe Dayan Center dedicated series.

Another interesting information about the top leadership of the Brotherhood is provided in this analysis of the Council on Foreign Relations. When reading the couple of lines dedicated to the current president of Egypt, I could not resist but thinking about Ahmadinejad - a level 2 bureaucrat with good connections (in the latest case, the Revolutionary Guards). It seems that Dr. Khairat al Shater is someone that we will hear about soon more often in the next months. 

Crisis guide: Iran

Many people nowadays are trying to talk about Iran, some are doing it professionally, some in a biased way.

The Crisis guide: Iran, by the Council on Foreign Relations is trying to present as many points of view as possible, in a very interactive way. In less than 9 minutes, you can say and show a lot about one of the hottest point on the planet and at least from this point of view, it is a very interesting approach. 

You have an overview of the current situation, various historical timelines, details about the Iranian regime, the regional situation, the nuclear program as well as useful resources for those interested to find out more. The interviews and points of view of experts in the region and political leaders, are intercalated with images from Iran. 

An interesting idea that makes foreign policy and diplomacy readable to an extended audience.

Should Iran get the bomb?

I always like to read new and mind blowing perspectives on foreign affairs. In addition, I am a dedicated reader of Foreign Affairs for an early age and thus, was more than impatient to read why Kenneth N. Waltz considered that Iran should get the bomb (the nuclear bomb). 

The arguments are simple and the essay is short in comparison with what you can really expect in Foreign Affairs - I am wrong to notice that the famous the author the shorter the essay, it is as the fame will exempt you from expanding your arguments based on your well known credentials? In his opinion, Iran should have the bomb because it will create more responsibilities for the authorities in Tehran and will establish a certain nuclear balance in the region with long term effects on the regional stability. It is like a 'wow' effect, isn't it? How did we not realize it and how there are still people that do not realise the simplicity of the solution. 

But, wait a minute, are we talking about France or Germany, or any other countries with a clear - at least for the next 5 years - democratic perspectives and clear engagement to respect the international rules of behavior? We are talking about a country where, even though some worries about the degree of mental inadequacy could be overrated, continues to be unpredictable and unreliable in its engagement on behalf of the international community. What about a world free of nuclear power? It does not make too much sense for very practical reasons but maybe I will write more about this on a different occasion. 

In an interview for The Diplomat, he explained further his intentions and the perspective on the nuclear balance, but it does not make too much sense from the cultural and historical point of view, as he apparently ignores some basic facts about the reasons why some countries would need to have the bomb and the degree of responsibility in handling it. 

Following this week negotiations, Iran looks as a quiet dove interested in the scientific development. But when it comes to the legal obligarions, the situation is apparently a completely different one. You have a region with a high degree of instability and only one democracy - which is not Iran, by the way. Syria presents already a danger for the region due to the significant stockpile of chemical weapons. In addition, we often forget that Iran is a country with frequent earthquakes and as long as it is no reliable control on their nuclear facilities, you risk a bigger tragedy than in the case of Fukushima. 

In conclusion, even if I enjoyed reading Waltz' piece of opinion, I dare to say that it does not say too much about the reality and even if it would have been an advertorial it blindly ignores almost every chunk of naked reality.

Syria’s chemical danger

As the fights in Syria continue, and the international community is unable to stop the slaughter that last for over a year, there are many other technical aspects related to this country that should worry the big democracies. One is represented by the fate of Syria’s chemical warfare. The main players in the next government in Damascus are not known, but the need to rely on a democratic – non-jihadist – government would be more than wishful thinking. However, the world is worried and is hoping/wishing/sending the message that they would prefer that the chemical stockpile will be transferred into ‘democratic hands’.

Till then, a short review of Syria’s chemical dangers.

The legal framework

Syria is not part of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and its support for the ban on WMD was only at the declarative level. It is signatory of the Biological Warfare Convention but has not ratified it yet. Also, it is part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and maintains a civil nuclear program. The international community tried for years to investigate suspicions that Dair Alzour facility produce plutonium but failed to obtain clear evidences. However, the same was said about the chemical warfare that was officially declared by officials in Damascus a couple of years ago. The declarations of the officials were directed against possible attacks from abroad.

With an international community too busy with the London Olympic Games, the crisis in Europe and the summer holidays to intervene, the only possible target of the declarations could be only the State of Israel, where the official declarations were very cautious.

The history of chemical weapons

The involvement of Syrian authorities for developing the stockpile of chemical weapons started in the early 1980, according among others, to a declaration of the then CIA director William Webster in 1989. With the help of Russia and other big powers – France, among others – Syria succeeded to have it. It is also said that the first chemical weapons were offered by Egypt in 1973, on the eve of the attack on Israel, but the main provider seems to be the same Moscow. After Egypt and Israel signed the basic treaty in 1979, this support for Damascus took and end and Moscow became officially the main direct provider.

As in many other countries with problematic democracies and long history of oppression of their own citizens – see Iran, North Korea, for instance – such weapons involves a lot of investment and under the table negotiations with the big powers – to be read corruption. As many other countries in the area, the excuse of the regime for such programs was that they feel threatened by the state of Israel, a lame excuse to justify their underdevelopment and lack of any concerns for the fate of their ‘people’. However, the acceleration of the efforts towards acquiring chemical weapons was determined as well following various conflicts with Turkey, either due to the support of Syria for the Kurdish independence, or the various water sharing conflicts over the Euphrate river. The so-called political ‘Muslim’ unity manifests rather when it is about a hate-based cause.

For the moment, it is supposed that it manufactures: Sarin, VX, mustard gas and Tabun. The production is developed at least in five locations, many of them the playground for different recent fights: Al Safir – where it probably it is hosted as well a Scud missile base, Cerin – where the biological weapons are developed -, Hama – where cyanide gas was used in 1982 against an uprising of the Muslim Brotherhood -, Homs, Latakia and Palmyra. Some of the biological weapons that the Syrian scientists developed could be: anthrax, tularemia, cholera, ricin, canulpox. It is also said that Syria helped Russia to install anthrax in missile warheads.

The current Syrian production could be of few hundred tons of chemical agent per year. The clear locations and the exact capabilities remain at a great extent vague.

Moscow continue to be a strong supporter of Assad’s regime – and latest media news outlined that his glamorous and British educated wife found refuge in Putin’s Russia. And, as in many other post-Cold War cases, the old people from the old guards continued to get involved in various businesses with or without the direct support of their new bosses. Some paid for this as it was the case of retired Lieutenant General Anatoliy Kuntsevich in 1996, found guilty for shipping 800-kilograms of precursor chemicals to Syria.

What’s next

Both Moscow and Washington are trying to deter Assad – wonder how do they keep in touch nowadays? – and his cronies to give up the idea of using the chemical weapons.

The big question will be how to keep a tight control of the nuclear capacities and the chemical stockpile in the middle of the chaos. Among all the ‘spring’ countries, Syria presents the most dangerous situation and thus, the old enemies should decide to work together. Once again, at least when it comes to the Middle East affairs, the EU gave another proof of inadequacy.

Sources

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/syria/index.html

To believe or not believe Iran?

A couple of resources made by Chatham House about Iran and the Middle East.

As the blog is back on track, there is more to come, soon, about Iran, the Middle East and the crazy world we live in.

Will Enthusiasm for Democracy Endure in Egypt and Elsewhere?

The latest report from Pew Research Center.

Facing the new media freedom in N.Africa and the Middle East

The Tunisian dilemma
Reporting in Libya: virtually impossible
A Saudi game
US Assistant Secretary of State about the situation of the media in the region
Yemen: Security forces attack journalists
Wave of arrests of Syrian bloggers
UAE Internet policies
RSF: Media continues to be target

Brookings Institute: Understanding the age shifts in the Middle East

An analysis from June 2010.

Daily Media Digest

N. Africa and the Middle East


Libya: UN approved tough sanctions, UK Forces resumed the rescue,
Tunisia: three killed during the clashes
Yemen: accusations of splitting the country
Pledges for competitive elections in Egypt
Bahrain opposition leader returns from exile

Latin America

Political prisoners freed in Cuba
Dialogue between Uruguay and Argentina

Asia


North Korea is threatening the South
Tightened security in Shanghai

Africa

Zimbabwe: Constitutional discussions in danger
Gunfire in Abidjan

Europe

Ireland: Fine Gael's victory
Cameron's clarifications about the "multiculturalism" speech
Timelines of Assange's trial - in the perspective of his extradition to Sweden
Which league plays Berlusconi?
Clashes and anti-governmental protests in Croatia

US and Canada

Canada's immigration policy
US: The danger of budget cuts

New Zealand and Australia


Australia: Tougher sanctions against Gaddafi
New Zealand: The death toll

Daily Media Digest

North Africa and Middle East

The water issue
Possible EU sanctions on Libyan regime
Al Qaeda branch in North Africa backs the anti-Gaddafi revolt. The delusion of African grandeur. World nations are evacuating their citizens. Gaddafi tighten grip. A wave of 350,000 migrants on hold

Africa

Zimbabwe fears an Egyptian scenario

Europe

Germany and France want equal footing on EADS
Germany: 2 Islamic terrorist suspects arrested
Zu Guttenberg: The dispute continues
Ireland: predictable defeat of the ruling party
David Cameron calls for radical reform of EU aid
US and Canada

More US pressures to Libya
Sarah Palin to visit India next month

Australia and New Zealand

The aftermath of the New Zealand earthquake: 98 persons

Asia


China: proposing death penalty for organ trafficking
Taiwan and China: more talks on individual tourism
UNESCO envoy to visit Thailand and Cambodia

Global markets

The price of the oil, on rise

Daily Media Digest

N. Africa and the Middle East


Protests spreading in Libya. Live testimonies about the events: http://audioboo.fm/feb17voices
Tunisia seeks Ben Ali extradition
The unrest in Morocco continues
Egypt: Banks and pyramids are now open. Will be the new government preoccupied by acquiring nuclear weapons?

Israel monitoring Suez-bound Iran ships

Asia


Failure of the Jasmine Protests?
Philippines: Remember People Power
ASEAN meeting trying to solve the border dispute


Europe


France: Dominique Strauss-Kahn, possible competitor for Sarkozy?
EU: More money for the Mediterranean countries?
Hungary: Structural reforms not on table
Russia asks Serbia to do not join NATO


Australia

Gillard, to meet Obama soon

Africa

Somalia: Suicide car-bomb near Mogadishu

Latin America

Cuba: News about the latest release of prisoners
The Chile-Peru dispute on Wikileaks
Peru: crack-down on illegal gold miners in Amazon

Daily Media Digest

Middle East

Al Jazeera: Death toll in Libya - 200 persons, at least
Yemen: Separatist leader arrested and Students continue the protests against the president
Bahrain under fire. US top-diplomat call for reforms "now"
Newsweek, on Egypt: The Facebook freedom fighters and The tragedy of Hosni Mubarak
Iran: Rafsanjani's daughter arrested
US vote and the UN Resolution on Settlements. The reactions from the Arab world: Arab League, Palestinian protests, Jordan regrets

Europe


EU bets on Ireland's recovery
Bilbao: Support for the Basque party
Romania, Bulgaria and Schengen


Latin America


Dissident freed in Cuba
Calls for boosting ties with the Middle East
Waiting for Obama
Political movies at Berlinale


Asia


Chinese security officials respond to call for protests
Japan to dig site linked to WWII human experiment


Africa


Protests in Morocco, asking the limitations of King's powers
EU's answer to the protests in North Africa
Uganda: Controversial vote

Global trends

G-20 meeting is over