Hollande in Lebanon, what to expect

source: sightcall.com

When things are not going on as expected on the home affairs front, the foreign policy can help. At least when it comes to such a special relationship as the one between France and Lebanon.

French president, Francois Hollande is expected in Beirut the 16th of April for a working visit, part of a tour in the region between 16-18 April which includes also Egypt - state visit -and Jordan - meeting with King Abdullah II regarding the regional partnership and the fight against terrorism.

The current situation in Lebanon

Since the end of the mandate of the previous president Michel Suleiman in September 2014, the presidency of Lebanon is vacant. Compared to other situations when the various factions haven't reach an agreement for the next presidential candidate that lead to open conflicts, this time things seem to be less explosive. Hollande is supposed to express during his visit the support for coexistence and proper functioning of the local institutions, including the presidency.

The country was also affected by the Syrian civil war, with refugee camps in the country. France kept a very low profile in the issue of refugees, compared to the German EU partner and the French president is interested in helping the country with intelligence and financial support for diminishing the war repercurssions.

In most situations to be addressed, the French president is expected to offer commitment towards stability without offering concrete solutions. Another surprising fact is that during the war in Syria, the country remained stable.

In the post-war Syria, France would prefer a minimal influence of both hungry for more regional power actors Iran and Turkey, a trend which on long term can positively influence the internal situation in Lebanon too.

However, under the curtains, France keeps a permanent contact with Iran, an important player in the country with high interests through the support for the terrorist organization Hezbollah. The influence of France in this case is however limited, a major influencer being rather Russia, with good relations on both sides. In an interview with Al Mayadeen TV on March 21, the secretary general of the terrorist organisation, Hassan Nassrallah, noticed the 'common goals' between Hezbollah, Iran and Russia. It is the usual terrorist propaganda for the consumption of the Arab public, as an experienced diplomat as Lavrov sees much further than this. As for now, Russia can help the settlemet of an agreement for the election of a new president. For example.

Another important aspect of the French-Lebanese agenda is the delivery of French weapons, part of a $3 billion grant by Saudi Arabia, the highest ever given to the military sector. France also encourages Saudi Arabia's influence in the country, as a counter-balance to the Iranians. 

French-Lebanese strong connections

Out of the many others former French colonies, Lebanon always remains a special partner. Besides the interest of so many wealthy countries to get involved in the local affairs, not only for a good cause, France remains the main source of foreign direct investment. Thanks to France, Lebanon is one of the main Mediterranean beneficiaries of financial and technical assistance from the EU. Again, the friends for benefits from the region do not hurry up to support the economy, only the croonies from Hezbollah.

In addition, thousands of French-Lebanese citizens live and work in Lebanon, and around 250,000 people of Lebanese origin live in France. 

France continues to be influential but not the predominant power in the region. The effects of this visit, scheduled for last year but delayed for security reasons, are not to be seen immediately, but France keeps playing hard games in the Middle East and given the comptitors, it is preferably to many, if not most of them. 

Meir Dagan, almost the end of an era

The picture of his grandfather before death used to be in his office

The death of the former cheif of Mossad for nine years, Meir Dagan, can be almost the end of an era, of an old generation of public personalities in Israel whose personalities were defined by the World War II. Dagan, born as Huberman, on the train between Soviet Union and Poland in 1945, used to have in his office the picture of his grandfather down on his knees before being killed by Nazis, made a life mission that Holocaust 'will never happen again'. 

Dagan served as director of the Israel's most powerful intelligence agency beetween 2002 and 2011, under three prime-ministers: Ariel Sharon, Ehud Olmert and Benjamin Netanyahu. He ended his mandate on medical reasons, although during the exhange of declarations during the last years elections, Netanyahu affirmed that in fact he refused to extend his mandate. Dagan offered to the media the proof of his letter resignation letter where he requested the replacement. 

Officer of the Israeli Defense Force - IDF - he fought during the Yom Kippur War and the 1982 Lebanon War. As chief of Mossad, he ordered several operations, some of them together with other secret services, aimed at killing terrorists who put in dangerous the state of Israel. During one of them, for instance, operated together with the CIA, was killed Imad Mughniyeh, the so-called Minister of Defence of Hezbollah. After becoming a public figure, he often criticised Netanyahu for the way in which he managed the Iran problem and was a harsh opponent of the idea of an Israeli attack against Tehran. In Dagan's opinion, the then and current prime-minister turned Iran into an Israeli problem, thus limiting the interest of the rest of the world in the issue. During the last elections, he supported Isaac Herzog, part of a tandem with Tzipi Livni that used to work for the Mossad during his mandate.

Dagan was also active in the business sector, and was an amateur painter and a vegetarian too. 

Egypt versus Iran, and not only

In an interview offered to a very pro-Iran sympathetic Dieter Bednarz from Spiegel the last week, the foreign minister of Egypt, Sameh Hassan Shoukry outlined several times the unsatisfaction with the constant involvement of Iran in the internal affairs of other countries from region, such as Syria, Bahrain, Iraq or Yemen.Following the latest evolutions in the region and the high proof of Iranian influence especially in Yemen and Syria, based on an expansionist conception focused on strengthening of religious - Shiilte - ties in the region, Egypt stays for now on the side of the opposition to Tehran politics, similarly with Saudi Arabia. Egypt does not  have diplomatic relations with Iran, following the peace treaty with Israel. 

Currenly, Egypt is coping with a resurgence of ISIS regroupement in Sinai,which jeopardizes not only the security in the region, but also tends to isolate Egypt. In the last years, the country kept losing significant amounts of money due to the diminishing of touristic presence. 

In the interview offered to Der Spiegel; Shoukry repeats on several occassions that Tehran involvement is wrong and the opposition against the Iranian officials is justified, including through the measures took against its influence agents, such it was the case of the Shiite leader Nimr Baqir al-Nimr. The Sheikh was condemned to death the 2nd of January. He often pledged for religious freedom in the Kingdom who practices a Wahhabi version of Sunni islam and considers the Shi'a as heretics. Western media and NGOs portrays the sheikh as a fighter for religious freedom. 

Shoukry, a close confident to current president Sisi and former ambassador in the US, Austria and Switzerland during Mubarak, gave the interview before his official visit to Germany.

As things look now, there is Iran against the rest of independent states in the region, with no benefits for anyone, especially for the regional stability.

How the Iron Drome works

The shield built by humans that prevent most of the terrorist attacks

Bonus: It is possible to - rationally - understand the Middle East conflict? 

Crisis guide: Iran

Many people nowadays are trying to talk about Iran, some are doing it professionally, some in a biased way.

The Crisis guide: Iran, by the Council on Foreign Relations is trying to present as many points of view as possible, in a very interactive way. In less than 9 minutes, you can say and show a lot about one of the hottest point on the planet and at least from this point of view, it is a very interesting approach. 

You have an overview of the current situation, various historical timelines, details about the Iranian regime, the regional situation, the nuclear program as well as useful resources for those interested to find out more. The interviews and points of view of experts in the region and political leaders, are intercalated with images from Iran. 

An interesting idea that makes foreign policy and diplomacy readable to an extended audience.

The Syrian-Turkish relations

It is a cheap idea to support how united the countries from the Middle Eastern area are. In fact, with the exception of their hate against Israel – as a tool to excuse their disregard for basic rights for their citizens - and the support for the extremist Palestinian factions, there is no interest in going and acting together.

As Syria is in the news – but not in the minds of the decision makers – daily, the old and deepening conflict between Syria and Turkey I decided that I should start looking more carefully to the history of the bilateral relations between Damascus and Ankara.

Overall diplomatic framework

Syria has an embassy in Ankara and two consulate general in Istanbul and Gaziantep. Turkey has besides the embassy in Damascus one consulate general in Aleppo.

Both Turkey and Syria are members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and of the Union for the Mediterranean.

The relation between Damascus and Ankara were molded at a great extent by the so-called ‘independence’ attitude of the new authorities in Ankara – to be read more tempted to follow the usual religious oriented patterns. Within the various Islamic fora, Turkey was often accused of being a Trojan horse, due also to the previous good relationships with the state of Israel, and its prestigious position in NATO. Many Muslim countries clapped their hands when the Turkish Parliament refused in 2003 to cooperate militarily with the US for the invasion in Iraq.

In 2004, Assad was the first ever president that ever went to Ankara in a state visit. In 2008, Turkey started to play the role of mediator between Damascus and Jerusalem on the issue of the Golan Heights, but it gave up its neutral role after qualifying the 2008-2009 operation in Gaza as ‘crimes against humanity’ committed by the Israeli Defense Army. On 26 April 2009, Syria and Turkey organized three-day joint military exercise developed in the border areas.

The casus belli

There are a couple of points that marked regularly the relations between the two countries:

-       -  The 1939 conflict regarding the annexation of the Hatay Province to Turkey. Hatay Province won in 1938 independence from the French Mandate of Syria and as the Republic of Hatay decided to join Turkey through a referendum that was never recognized by Damascus. Even though the province appears on many maps in Syria as still being part of this country, following the historical visit to Ankara, Assad declared that Damascus has no more interests in winning back the province. According to various media reports, it is said that many Syrian nationals bought in the last years properties in this Turkish region.

-        - The water dispute within the Southeastern Anatolia Project refers to the decision ot Turkey to build several dams on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers

-       - Syria’s open support for the Kurds. Repeatedly, it was alleged that Kurdish separatists were trained in Syria by one of the most sought Nazi war criminals, Alois Brunner who apparently was received open arms here  Eastern Syria – or what the Kurds call Western Kurdistan – is home for more than 2 million Kurds who should be considered in any discussions regarding the future of the region. However, in October 1998, the Syrian authorities decided to expel the Kurd leader Abdullah Öcalan to Turkey where he was put in prison, following unprecedented tensions when the Turkish tanks were deployed at the border. In the coming months, the issue of the Kurdish minority will continue to be at stake, as Turkey clearly outlined that it will not accept the creation of a Kurdish entity within Syria.

-        The recent evolutions

The immediate effect on the current uprising on the bilateral relations was the high number of refugees – around 300,000 that flew to Turkey at the beginning of the conflict. The same Erdogan that hold hands with Assad declared to the Anatolian Agency that “Syria is not acting in a human manner. This is savagery”. Part of the change of perspective was the serious incident that took place a couple of months ago after on 22 June 2012, Syria shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom military jet near the Turkish-Syrian border, due to what the Syrian military alleged it was a violation of the Syrian airspace by Turkey. In the last years, Assad decided to grant Syrian citizenship to some Kurds another example that, in fact, in many Middle Eastern countries, governments are not acting for the sake of an idea, but rather against a particular other.

Despite the recent political turmoil in Ankara, Turkey continues to be an important NATO member and a candidate country to the EU. Even though the Cold War is over, some of the disagreements could be included on the old bill that Russia will never ask to be paid from the US in the Middle East. After officially losing the control in Central and Eastern Europe, Moscow could be as desperate as to negotiate some influence in the Middle East and thus cannot accept by itself to loose Syria (too).

Turkey is interested in a stable Middle East and, eventually, in a regime with whom to continue its quiet expansion of its interests.