Monday, December 6, 2010
Latin America? What's going on?
Saturday, October 30, 2010
The last 23 years of terror
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Israel launches overnight air raids on Gaza
GAZA CITY — The Israeli military launched aerial raids overnight in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, but no one was injured or killed in the sorties, witnesses and officials said Friday.
Israeli officials said the three raids, targeting a residential area in the north of the Palestinian enclave and two in the south, were in response to an earlier missile attack by Palestinian militants.
"Our planes attacked terrorist installations in the north of the region and two tunnels located in the south which could serve for attacks against Israel," an Israeli defence spokesman said, confirming the raids.
On Thursday evening, "a rocket fired from the north of the Gaza Strip fell in the Ashkelon region without causing any injuries," south of Tel Aviv, the spokesman told AFP.
The Ansar al Sunna group claimed responsibility for the attack, in a statement.
Israel launched a devastating assault on the Hamas-run Gaza Strip in December 2008 aimed at halting rocket fire. Some 1,400 Palestinians and 13 Israelis were killed in the 22-day war.
Monday, March 8, 2010
The Gods for political use
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Dubai
Friday, June 5, 2009
The hedgehog and the fox
That starts with ensuring Israel's qualitative military advantage. I will ensure that Israel can defend itself from any threat - from Gaza to Tehran. Defense cooperation between the United States and Israel is a model of success, and must be deepened. As President, I will implement a Memorandum of Understanding that provides $30 billion in assistance to Israel over the next decade - investments to Israel's security that will not be tied to any other nation. First, we must approve the foreign aid request for 2009. Going forward, we can enhance our cooperation on missile defense. We should export military equipment to our ally Israel under the same guidelines as NATO. And I will always stand up for Israel's right to defend itself in the United Nations and around the world".
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Palestinian unity talks resume in Cairo
AFP
Rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas resumed reconciliation talks in Cairo on Wednesday aimed at agreeing a government of national unity acceptable to the international community.
The Egyptian-mediated talks between the Islamist Hamas and the Western-backed Fatah of Palestinian Authority president Mahmud Abbas were adjourned on March 19 after failing to agree on a new government.
The two factions met on Wednesday in the presence of Egypt's intelligence chief and pointman for Israeli-Palestinian affairs Omar Suleiman, Egypt's official MENA news agency reported.
MENA quoted an unidentified senior Egyptian official calling on Fatah and Hamas to "face their responsibilities and rise above partisan (quarrels) and the fight for power."
"Egypt will invite the rest of the (Palestinian) factions if there is a breakthrough in the discussions," the official said.
Senior Fatah official Nabil Shaath said remaining differences concern the makeup and programme of the government, the system by which elections will be held next year and the future makeup of Palestinian security forces.
Fatah has been pushing for the formation of a government that would be accepted by the international community, which has boycotted previous unity governments that included Hamas.
Hamas, which won Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006, has refused to recognise Israel, renounce violence, or accept past peace agreements -- the three main conditions set by Israel and the West.
The Hamas team, including representatives from the Gaza Strip as well as in exile in Damascus, is headed by the movement's deputy leader Moussa Abu Marzouk. The Fatah delegation is headed by Ahmed Qorei.
Hamas, which seized the Gaza Strip in a week of deadly fighting in June 2007, routing Fatah forces from the territory, does not recognise Israel and wants to replace it with an Islamic state.
The Islamist movement had agreed with Fatah in early 2007 to form a unity government that "respected" past agreements with Israel.
The Middle East Quartet, comprising the United States, Russia, the United Nations and the European Union, has set conditions on dealing with Hamas that require the movement to recognise Israel, renounce violence against the Jewish state and comply with past Palestinian-Israeli agreements.
Hamas says those conditions are unacceptable.
The talks come as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took the helm of a right-wing government that has raised fears about the future of the Middle East peace process.
The Palestinians have given a cold welcome to the new government, with Abbas saying that Netanyahu "does not believe in peace" and urging the international community to pile pressure on Israel.
The European Union last week warned of "consequences" if the new government does not commit itself to the principle of the two-state solution, saying relations would become "very difficult."
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Israel arrests Hamas political leaders
Mohammed Daraghmeh
March 19
Israel rounded up 10 Hamas leaders in the West Bank early Thursday, two days after indirect talks between Israel and the Islamic militant group on a prisoner swap broke down.
Among those detained were four Hamas lawmakers, a university professor and a former Hamas deputy prime minister.
The Israeli military said in a statement that those arrested were involved in "restoring the Hamas administrative branch." Hamas in the West Bank has been the target of a crackdown by Israel and the security forces of moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the past two years, ever since the militants seized Gaza by force.
The detentions appear to be an attempt to pressure the group after the failure of recent efforts to win the release of an Israeli soldier, Sgt. Gilad Schalit, who is being held by Hamas in Gaza.
Ahmed Bahar, a Hamas leader in Gaza, denounced the arrests as "immoral blackmail by the Zionist occupation."
Israel has detained dozens of Hamas politicians in the West Bank on various occasions following the capture of Schalit, 22, in a cross-border raid in June 2006.
The detainees in the latest raid include Nasser Shaer, a former Palestinian deputy prime minister, and four Hamas lawmakers. Some have already been detained in the past and released.
Outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had hoped to secure the release of Schalit before a new Israeli government is formed, possibly within days. To that end, he dispatched two senior envoys to Cairo over the weekend to try to clinch an Egyptian-brokered deal with Hamas, which rules Gaza and has no direct ties with Israel.
But the envoys returned to Israel without a deal in hand, and on Tuesday Olmert declared that Israel would not free all of the hundreds of Palestinian prisoners the Islamic militants demanded in exchange.
Some were involved in attacks that killed dozens of Israelis, and Olmert insisted that there were "red lines" that Israel "will not cross."
Incoming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is expected to partner with hawkish parties in Israel's new government, has not commented on the failed release efforts or how he plans to deal with Schalit's case.
The failure of the prisoner swap talks threatens to set off a long chain reaction of setbacks. Israel has vowed not to lift its crushing blockade of impoverished Gaza until Schalit is returned home. That could seriously impede reconstruction there after Israel's recent military offensive because building materials and equipment won't be able to enter the territory, home to 1.4 million Palestinians.
The continued blockade could also hamper efforts to cement a long-term truce between Israel and Hamas, which in turn would carry the threat of a sudden escalation in the low-level violence that has continued since the war ended on Jan. 18.
On Wednesday, Schalit's father, Noam, blamed Olmert for failing to free his son and said the family would dismantle a protest tent it set up outside Olmert's residence on Saturday — 1,000 days since the serviceman was captured.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Israeli rivals share tough line on Hamas and Iran
Amy Teibel
AP
Israel's new coalition government — whether led by hard-line Benjamin Netanyahu or his moderate rival Tzipi Livni — is likely to take a tough line on two burning issues: Hamas and Iran.
As the two began courting potential coalition partners Wednesday, two scenarios took shape: a narrow alliance of hawks who would stall peacemaking with the Palestinians, or a broad power-sharing government that would give Israel a more moderate face and greater international support.
With only a few thousand votes by soldiers still to be counted, Livni's Kadima Party had one more seat in parliament than Netanyahu's Likud. But Netanyahu's natural allies on the right have a clear majority of 65 in the 120-seat parliament, giving him the edge in forming a coalition.
President Shimon Peres will consult all 12 parties in the new parliament next week before choosing either Netanyahu or Livni to try to form a government — a process likely to take weeks if not months.
The two offer vastly different approaches when it comes to peacemaking with the Palestinians: Livni supports giving up territory to make room for a Palestinian state, while Netanyahu has said he considers current U.S.-backed Mideast peace talks a waste of time.
However, they both take a hard line when it comes to the Islamic militants of Hamas, who overran the Gaza Strip in 2007, and the potential threat of Iran's nuclear program.
Both threaten harsh military action against Hamas if rocket fire from Gaza persists and reject negotiations with Hamas in the wake of a punishing Israeli offensive in Gaza last month. They also agree the Hamas regime should be toppled, though neither has spelled out how that should be done.
As for Iran, Israel considers it the nation's biggest threat and rejects Tehran's assertion that its nuclear program is to produce energy, not bombs. Both Livni and Netanyahu have hinted that military action might be necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining an atomic weapon.
These key areas of accord might nudge Netanyahu and Livni into a joint government, especially since neither is in a strong position as coalition maneuvering begins.
The results of Tuesday's vote were inconclusive. Likud has only 27 seats to Kadima's 28 — less than a quarter of the house each — which means that whoever forms the government will have to lead a fractious coalition. The key is held by Avigdor Lieberman, whose Yisrael Beitenu Party emerged as the third-largest with 15 seats. Though he is firmly in the hawk camp, he did not rule out serving under Livni.
"Political Tangle," read the headline on the front page of the Yediot Ahronot daily, flanked by smiling photos of the two would-be premiers.
Lieberman hopes to redraw Israel's borders to push areas with heavy concentrations of Arabs outside the Jewish state and under Palestinian jurisdiction. Those who remain would be forced to sign an oath of loyalty to Israel, and anyone who refused would lose the right to vote or run for office.
A Likud-Kadima national unity government could leave Lieberman, whose rise in Israeli politics is troubling to many in Israel and abroad, on the sidelines.
One possibility is a government based on Netanyahu's fellow hard-liners. Another is a broad "national unity" team under Netanyahu or Livni, with participation of the other, along with the centrist Labor and some small parties.
A third option is a power-sharing arrangement in which one would serve as prime minister for a set period, and then the other would take over — an arrangement called "rotation" when it was tried in the 1980s.
The outcome could prove critical to peace efforts.
Livni spent a year leading Israel's team in negotiations with the Palestinians and is committed to the idea of a Palestinian state. So, too, is Defense Minister Ehud Barak's Labor Party. Netanyahu, by contrast, has staked his political reputation on opposing the sweeping territorial concessions that would be required to clinch such an accord.
Besides broad agreement over Iran and Hamas, internal politics might push the two together.
Joining forces with Livni could allow Netanyahu to exclude from his government extreme nationalists whose presence could cause trouble with the Obama administration, which wants to move ahead quickly on an Israel-Palestinian peace deal.
It could also let him avoid costly capitulation to ultra-Othodox Jewish parties that traditionally have demanded large budgets for pet projects as the price for joining governments.
In Washington, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Obama "looks forward to working with whoever makes up that next Israeli government in a search for lasting and durable peace in the region."
In a speech early Wednesday in which he claimed victory, Netanyahu said he would push for a national unity government, but he would start with his natural allies. Livni, too, called for a national unity government but did not specify with whom.
Dan Meridor, a veteran politician who returns to parliament under the Likud banner, told The Associated Press Wednesday that a broad-based government is the best option.
"I've been in narrow governments and broad governments, and a broad government is much easier to handle," he said.
But nothing is certain. Netanyahu himself talked of going it alone as the votes were being counted.
"The Israeli people have expressed their opinion clearly and sharply," he said in his victory speech. "The national camp, led by the Likud has won a clear advantage. ... The people want a change. The people want to follow a different path. Our path has won, and it is the path that will lead the people."
Former Palestinian Information Minister Mustafa Barghouti said Wednesday the election showed an Israeli turn to the right.
"There is no difference between Livni, Netanyahu and Barak," he told The Associated Press in Washington. The election results show that "Israel is responding with negative change to Obama."
Meanwhile, Israel gave approval Wednesday for the export of 25,000 flowers from Gaza to Europe. The shipment of carnations, the first in more than a year, came at the request of the Dutch government, it said in a statement.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Amnesty Accuses Hamas of Killing, Torturing Palestinians
Voice of America
February 10
An international human rights group says Hamas has killed or tortured dozens of Palestinians the militants accused of "collaborating" with Israel.
Amnesty International says at least 24 men have been shot dead by Hamas gunmen since the end of December, and scores more have been kidnapped, shot in the legs, beaten or tortured.
The London-based group asserts in a report released Tuesday that the attacks began shortly before Israel's 22-day military offensive targeting the Gaza Strip, and continued after a cease-fire took effect January 18.
Amnesty International says the victims include former members of the Palestinian Authority security forces and other activists from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party.
Hamas has not yet responded to the report.
Israel's ground, air and sea attacks on Gaza left 13 Israelis and more than 1,300 Palestinians dead. The offensive destroyed thousands of homes, and damaged schools, mosques and hospitals.
Two Norwegian doctors who spoke out about the death and destruction they witnessed during the war won a freedom of speech award in Norway Tuesday.
The Freedom of Expression Tribute, Fritt Ord in Norwegian, honored Erik Fosse and Mads Gilbert for "tirelessly relating, with visual testimony, the suffering of the civilian population during the Gaza bombings."
The men were the only western doctors in Gaza when the war began.
Amnesty International has accused Israel's military of committing war crimes during the offensive. Israel says it respected international law.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Hamas: Draft for Gaza truce has been reached
Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Haaretz Correspondents
February 5
Egypt and Hamas have reached a draft agreement on a cease-fire with Israel in the Gaza Strip, a representative from the Islamist group told the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram on Thursday.
The representative, Salah al-Bardawil, said that the draft stipulates a year-and-a-half long truce between Hamas and Israel. It also includes the opening of all border crossings for 80 percent of goods. Israel would need to clarify exactly what type of goods it would allow in, Bardawil said.
Bardawil told the Egyptian newspaper that according to the draft agreement, the Rafah crossing would be closed from time to time. He also said that Israel rejected a proposal to station international observers on the Rafah border.
Israeli security officials said Wednesday they believed Egypt and Hamas were making significant progress in drafting terms for a long-term lull in fighting in the Gaza Strip, but that a number of unresolved issues remain between the two sides.
Egypt had set Thursday as the target date for signing the agreement, but the differences in opinion mean it may take several more days or even longer before a deal is reached, with all clarifications set.
Israel is not participating in the talks, but is expected to arrive at a verbal agreement with Egypt that would allow the lull to continue at a later date.
Egypt has been pushing for an agreement that includes a lull for a year and a half, while Israel prefers to see one lasting only a year, and in the framework of a non-binding agreement.
A key issue in the negotiations is the opening of Rafah crossing, which Hamas is seeking to have opened completely, with Turkish troops monitoring its operation, in accordance with a plan drafted by the United States three years ago. Egypt is opposed to such a move, but is nevertheless seeking to place a force loyal to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at the crossing, a proposal Hamas has thus far resisted.
Another outstanding issue is the Israeli request to create a half-kilometer buffer zone in the area known as the "security parameter" on the Palestinian side of the border fence with Israel. Israel is seeking to prevent the entry of armed militants to the area to combat the placement of explosive devices or the digging of tunnels there.
Another critical issue involves the link between the release of captive Israel Defense Forces soldier Gilad Shalit with the lull and the opening of crossings. Israel is demanding that even a partial opening of the crossings be dependent on progress towards Shalit's release, for example providing a clear sign the soldier is still alive. Hamas has until now opposed such a link. Egypt has expressed uncertainty in relation to its capacity to force Hamas into such an agreement, but promised Israel it would make efforts towards that end.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Hamas says it's back in control of the Gaza Strip
AP
GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip— Bearded Hamas activists on Friday delivered an envelope with five crisp $100 bills to a veiled woman whose house was damaged during Israel's invasion of Gaza, the first of promised relief payments by the militant group.
In another part of the territory, a bulldozer cleared rubble and filled in a bomb crater where a week before a top Hamas leader had been killed in an Israeli air strike.
Since a truce took hold this week, ending Israel's three-week onslaught, Gaza's Hamas rulers have declared victory and gone out of their way to show they are in control.
They have pledged $52 million of the group's funds to help repair lives, the money divvied up by category. The veiled woman received emergency relief money for her two-story home in the northern town of Beit Lahiya.
Hamas, which is believed to be funded by donations from the Muslim world and Iran, said the emergency relief would include $1,300 for a death in the family, $650 for an injury, $5,200 for a destroyed house and $2,600 for a damaged house.
More than 4,000 houses were destroyed and about 20,000 damaged, according to independent estimates.
"We are in control and we are the winner," Hamas legislator Mushir al-Masri declared this week, after attending the funeral of four Hamas gunmen.
But Israeli strikes destroyed all of Hamas' security compounds and most government buildings. Its top two leaders, strongman Mahmoud Zahar and Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, have not yet appeared in public.
Israel claims to have killed more than 700 Hamas fighters, while the militants say they lost about 280 armed men, the vast majority members of the police force killed in surprise bombings on the first day of the war.
But beyond the losses, Hamas is wrestling with a fateful choice — whether to keep fighting and drive Gaza deeper into poverty and suffering or moderate in exchange for open borders and a measure of stability.
Gaza had buckled under a tight border closure by Israel and Egypt for 19 months, suffering increasing shortages, and the war only heightened the misery.
On Thursday, hundreds lined up with blue gas canisters along the main north-south road, near the town of Deir el-Balah, after word spread that cooking gas was being distributed.
Hamad Abu Shamla, 24, waited for seven hours, only to leave empty-handed. The unemployed carpenter — he lost his job to the blockade — said he last had cooking gas five months ago, and that he, his wife and four children have mostly been living on canned food and bread since then.
He said he had already promised his family a steaming plate of couscous for lunch, and was sad to return home and disappoint them.
"We build our hopes on God," he said, when asked about his future. "We don't know what to do. We are empty-handed ... and we don't know what to do."
Hamas would need huge sums to fund reconstruction — some $2 billion according to first estimates — but the international community for now refuses to funnel the money directly to the militants.
Yet Hamas has rebuffed proposals that it set up a unity government with its moderate West Bank rivals, led by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. It is also cool to demands that Abbas' troops or foreign border monitors be deployed to prevent weapons smuggling into Gaza.
Israel and Egypt, which have kept Gaza's borders closed since Hamas seized the territory by force in June 2007, say they won't open the gates unless Hamas relents.
Before the war, Hamas was able to soften the pain of the blockade because weapons, cash and commercial goods were coming in through hundreds of tunnels under the Gaza-Egypt border. Israel says the shipments included explosives and rockets Hamas has been firing at southern Israel.
Israel bombed many tunnels during the war, though reporters have seen smugglers resume operating in some and rebuild others.
For now, most Gazans seem to rally behind Hamas, united in their anger at Israel, though there are some murmurs of discontent.
"Hamas fought the Israelis. No one else did," said Samir Summad, 66, whose four-story house was damaged during an air strike last week that killed Said Siam, a top Hamas leader.
At the time, Siam was in the house next door, and the massive bomb flattened the building and dug a deep crater into the sandy ground. On Friday, new cinderblocks were already stacked at the scene and a bulldozer pushed aside the remaining rubble.
Summad would not say whether he resented Siam for putting the neighborhood at risk. Siam was visiting a brother at the time of the strike. "If I had known he was there, I would have run away," said Summad, adding that five of his family members were wounded in the attack.
Summad said a government inspector came to his house to assess damage, including blown-out windows.
Hamas officials say the need open borders to rebuild Gaza. Yet they are evasive about how they hope to lift the blockade without easing their demands.
Hamas officials scoff at the idea of giving a foothold to Abbas, who has been increasingly sidelined, in part because he was perceived by many people as too soft on Israel during the war.
"We have a legitimate government in Gaza that came through democratic choice," said a Hamas spokesman, Fawzi Barhoum, referring to Hamas crushing victory over Abbas' Fatah movement in 2006 parliament elections.
Yet Hamas is taking a risk by sticking to a hard line that will likely keep Gaza's borders closed. Popular support could erode quickly, since most Gazans have no more reserves to withstand a continued closure.
Even before the war, the vast majority of Gaza's 1.4 million people were poor. The blockade wiped out tens of thousands of job, most factories closed for lack of raw materials and water, power and sewage systems became increasingly erratic.
Shehadeh Shehadeh, 39, a Gaza City pastry chef who learned his trade in Israel a decade ago, said he voted for Hamas in 2006 but said he believes the group must become more pragmatic.
He sold his last black forest cake a month ago and can't bake anymore because he's run out of ingredients available only in Israel. The windows of his apartment were blown out during the war, in an airstrike on the nearby Hamas government complex.
Shehadeh, like many Gazans, would like to see Hamas and Fatah reconcile and wants open borders. "I want to stop and breathe for a bit, and live," he said. "Until when will we keep saying, we want resistance and we want war?"
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Gaza's smuggling tunnels open again
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Latest from the Middle East
The tasks of diplomacy - The Jerusalem Post
Egypt pushes Hamas to accept truce - AP
China is entering the stage - Xinhua
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Pew Center: Hamas popularity, on the rise, again
Palestinians in East Jerusalem and in the West Bank, where Hamas rival Fatah dominates, have also demonstrated against Israel, some carrying the green flag of Hamas into the streets.
However, before the current conflict in Gaza, Hamas hardly enjoyed universal popularity among Muslims, and among some key Arab publics, its support had been waning.
The 2008 Pew Global Attitudes survey found significant opposition to the organization in several predominantly Muslim countries, not to mention considerable opposition to suicide bombing -- a frequent tactic of Hamas in the past -- as well as deep reservations about one of Hamas' chief sponsors, Iran.
Still, given the striking antipathy toward Israel throughout much of the Arab and Muslim worlds, if Hamas survives reasonably intact and comes to be viewed as the Palestinians' primary defender against the Jewish state, its popularity may rise.
Read the full report: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1075/before-israels-invasion-hamas-popularity-was-waning-among-its-neighbors-even-in-gaza-itsel
See also: ADL - Anti-Semitism, on the rise
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
War in the Middle East - day 11
- UN secretary general called for a cease-fire - Telegraph
- Egypt proposed a ceasefire - Reuters
- French president Nicolas Sarkozy ended in Egypt his Mideast trip - VoA
- Venezuela expels Israel's envoy - BBC
- The War 2.0, The Jerusalem Post
- The war from the media perspective - NYTimes
Saturday, December 20, 2008
ANALYSIS / Has the Gaza ceasefire really breathed its last?
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Ha'aretz
The way things looked yesterday afternoon, the cease-fire hadn't breathed its last. According to Hamas, the official expiration date falls today, December 19. But in fact, resuscitation efforts - by the Israelis, mostly - continue. Paradoxically, it's defense officials regularly accused of warmongering who are trying to prevent renewed fighting.
True, rockets have been hitting communities around Gaza in recent weeks, but senior security officials still feel the time is not yet ripe for a broad ground operation. This is the view not only of Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi and Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad, head of the Defense Ministry's political bureau, but also of Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin, who isn't pressing for action either.
There are myriad arguments against a war in Gaza, but the strongest is the one defense officials can't utter aloud because it has to do with the politicians above them. It would be hard to go into Gaza at the height of an election campaign. When one considers how political battles are already affecting decision making and public statements, it's not difficult to imagine what it would be like to try to run a war in the period leading up to the vote.
So for the time being we can expect turbulent times along the Gaza border, but in the slightly longer run, Israel (and more importantly, perhaps, Hamas) does not have an interest in an all-out confrontation. Even when the pronouncements sound more insistent than ever, it's worth recalling how many times in recent years Israel has found itself in a similar situation - and ultimately decided not to take action. It's quite possible that a major operation will eventually take place, but the decision to go ahead will only be made when there's a genuine sense that there is no other choice.
The Israel Defense Forces recently updated its operational plans for various potential escalation scenarios. It has also formulated different levels of response that fall short of an all-out war. But the chief of staff knows that there's no such thing as a half-war, and that even a limited entry into part of the territory (the logical targets would be the rocket-launching areas in northern Gaza and the smuggling zone in the south) could evolve into something bigger.
And while the military plan is relatively clear, there is still a gaping hole in the political sphere: Just what will Israel do after the IDF occupies the Gaza Strip? The ministers currently pushing for action are liable to find themselves in the position of former U.S. secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld, who had to admit that the Bush administration did not adequately prepare itself for what would happen after the occupation of Iraq. "Stuff happens," Rumsfeld explained with a shrug when confronted with images of the widespread mayhem in Baghdad.
Amos Gilad has made it clear in media interviews that we saw what happened when we went into Lebanon in 1982 to expel Fatah and ended up creating Hezbollah. We need to take into account that an occupation of the Gaza Strip would require us to feed 1.5 million people, endanger relations with Egypt and Jordan and potentially ignite a firestorm in the Muslim world.
It's hard to say that Israel made the most of the months of the cease-fire. The government approved the budget for upgrading the protection of communities near Gaza only two weeks ago, after six months of pleading from Barak and Ashkenazi. Introduction of the Iron Dome system for rocket interception is not likely to meet the ambitious timetable set by the defense establishment.
A rocket expert familiar with the program says that "Rafael [Advanced Defense Systems] is doing excellent work, but there are still some problems in integrating all the parts. One reason is that Barak did not a appoint someone as a 'czar' holding all the authority, as was done in the past with projects like the Arrow missile." The saga of the flawed handling of the Qassam interception program will soon receive a scathing assessment in a report by the state comptroller.
Early electioneering
The Israeli reporters invited to the office of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday evening asked him a raft of questions about the upcoming Israeli election. Abbas, with Israeli MK Ahmed Tibi (Ta'al) in attendance, was evasive. "It's an internal Israeli matter. We'll work with any government that is elected in Israel," he said.
When asked about continuing his tenure, he explained almost casually that there will be elections for the Palestinian presidency and parliament next year. Even though Hamas opposes early parliamentary elections, which are currently scheduled for January 2010, Abbas said that if the attempts to renew the dialogue between Fatah and Hamas are not fruitful, he will unilaterally declare early elections. "And what will happen if Hamas refuses to go along? How will you hold elections in Gaza?" he was asked. He didn't have an answer.
Although the likelihood of elections in the territories soon is low, the two organizations were going at it this week as if they were in the throes of a heated campaign. Last Saturday, Hamas held a rally in Gaza marking the 21st anniversary of its founding, and the crowd numbered around 200,000. It was a tremendous show of power, not only because of the event's magnitude (about every seventh Gazan took part), but also because of the exemplary order. A Gazan journalist says the money Hamas spent on the rally could have easily helped several thousand people survive the difficult siege conditions for another month.
Meanwhile, on Monday at the Muqata in Ramallah, there was a reception for the 227 prisoners Israel released as a gesture to Abbas. The crowd here was only in the hundreds, but they waved Fatah and Palestinian flags and cheered loud and long for Abbas when he began to speak. Ironically, while Abbas and Fatah are succeeding where Hamas has so far failed - prisoner releases and improving the economy - Fatah had trouble recruiting a big crowd for its event.
But Hamas has other problems to contend with. The consensus that once prevailed in the organization is cracking. At the beginning of the week, the rifts were hard to obscure, as Khaled Meshal, head of the political bureau in Damascus, announced that the truce was ending, while Hamas spokesmen in Gaza were saying that everything was still open. Within 24 hours, everybody in Damascus and Gaza was touting the new official line: The cease-fire is over, but Hamas will respond only if attacked by Israel.
Like the frog in the pot
The repulsive spectacle about Gilad Shalit staged by Hamas at its Gaza rally once again reflects the deep cultural chasm between the two sides. While the organization follows the Israeli media and many of its leaders are alumni of Israeli prisons, they still don't get us and we don't get them. The show in Gaza was a modern incarnation of an old Islamic practice of publicly scorning an enemy before going out to battle. It's also Hezbollah-type thinking, aimed at the soft underbelly - public consciousness. However, if the hope in Gaza was that such a spectacle would hurt Israeli morale, it mainly evoked disgust at Hamas' disdain for human life. At the same time, it's very possible that the numerous ways Israeli is putting pressure on the people in Gaza is only boosting support for Hamas.
The Shalit affair has become a pretext for political mudslinging, which isn't doing a thing to help secure his release. The organizations calling for his release have become a national movement, headed by a retired brigadier general and with the soldier's picture printed on T-shirts. It's hard to know if any of this is bringing results or only reinforcing Hamas' assessment that it can break Israel's fortitude.
The handling of the Shalit affair will certainly be pored over in the future. The foul-ups, particularly at the start, could well deserve the state comptroller's scrutiny. There were plenty of steps that Israel could have taken early on: declaring the Palestinian prisoners and Shalit prisoners of war, forbidding Red Cross visits to the prisoners, or abducting Hamas members from Gaza to serve as bargaining chips. Each of these ideas has its potential benefits and risks. But any move like this would also have necessitated negotiations that would last even more months, during which the risk of Shalit being harmed or disappearing would increase.
It's unlikely that Shalit will return home during the tenure of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, under whom the abduction occurred. Ofer Dekel, the coordinator of the negotiations who has already considered resigning several times, will probably step down around the time Olmert leaves office. The exhausting negotiations before the prisoner swap with Hezbollah placed him in a harsh confrontation with the heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet security service.
The argument between Dekel and Shin Bet chief Diskin has not abated and is particularly charged. It is still going on for two basic reasons: The IDF messed up when it did not thwart the abduction and the Shin Bet messed up when it couldn't locate Shalit.
Throughout the time that has passed since, various operational plans for rescuing Shalit from Gaza have been considered. But they never went ahead because the intelligence wasn't precise enough and the army couldn't come up with a plan with a good chance of rescuing Shalit while getting the rescue force out of Gaza with minimal casualties. The IDF is presuming that Hamas has learned the lessons of the failed Nachshon Wachsman rescue operation, which ended with the soldier being killed by his captors when the Sayeret Matkal burst in to where he was being held. Arab media reports that Shalit is being held somewhere booby-trapped with explosives are being taken as credible.
There are plenty of logical explanations on why Shalit has still not been rescued, more than 900 days since he was abducted, just as there are plenty of excellent reasons not to re-occupy the Gaza Strip. But Israel's dilemma is reminiscent of the fable about the frog that's put into a pot of hot water where the temperature rises one degree at a time. The creature becomes accustomed to the steadily worsening situation without fully appreciating its implications.