Foreign Policy Focus

The centuries-old conflict in the ancient Middle East is being influenced by a young generation of citizens, soldiers and militants who have grown up using new media.

Cellphones are being used as a form of psychological warfare to send threatening text messages. Here are a few examples of the use of new media in the Gaza war:

Israeli government officials have also been using technology such as text messaging, social networking sites on Facebook and MySpace and the microblogging site Twitter to communicate Israel's point of view to the western world and to a younger demographic.
Relief efforts and various organizations are finding a strong donor base in young people online who are using the internet to form grassroots movements and to co-ordinate fundraising events in support of Palestine.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has its own YouTube Channel and according to an ISF spokesman, contains "exclusive footage showing the IDF's operation success".

Stay tuned as the high tech new world continues to collide with centuries-old conflicts.

(Times) Facebook Users Go to War Over Gaza
(FT) Websites And TV Spur Flood of Donations For Political Causes In Arab World
(USAToday) Cellphones Put to 'Unnerving' Use in Gaza
(BBC) Gaza Crisis Spills onto the Web
(Time) Fighting the Media War in Gaza

European Worries About Reliance on Russian Energy Were Already High

January 15, 2009
Pew Global Attitudes Project

As Russian and Ukrainian leaders squabbled over gas supplies in late 2008 and early 2009, Eastern Europeans farther down the pipeline went without heat.

Both Eastern and Western Europeans are vulnerable to these disputes because they rely heavily on Russian gas supplies, most of which are pumped through Ukraine.

Not surprisingly, the Pew Global Attitudes poll found that majorities in a number of European nations were concerned about their country's reliance on Russian energy.

Just as public concern about energy dependence has become widespread, so too have unfavorable views of Russia and current Prime Minister Putin.

And surveys show a clear linkage between concern about energy dependence and unfavorable views of Russia.

Read the full report: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1083/europeans--worries-about-reliance-on-russian-energy-were-already-high

Thursday, January 15, 2009

N. Korean leader names third son as successor: sources

By Kim Hyun
SEOUL, Jan. 15 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has recently designated his third son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor and delivered a directive on the nomination to the Workers' Party leadership, sources well-informed on North Korea said Thursday.

The decision by the elder Kim comes earlier than expected and was likely driven by his poor health condition after suffering a stroke last August, multiple intelligence sources said. Kim's 68th birthday is next month.

If actualized, the junior Kim's succession would be the second father-to-son power transfer in the communist country, unprecedented in modern history.

"(Kim) delivered a directive around Jan. 8 that he has named Jong-un as his successor to the leadership of the Workers' Party," one of the sources told Yonhap News Agency on condition of anonymity.

Jong-un, now 25, was born to Kim's third wife, Ko Yong-hi, who died of breast cancer at the age of 51 in 2004. The youngest of Kim's three sons, Jong-un was educated at the International School of Berne and is known to be a fan of NBA basketball. After his return to Pyongyang in his late teens, the North has kept him under a shroud of secrecy and very little is known about his character.

Kim Jong-il was 32 when he was tapped as successor by his father and the nation's founder Kim Il-sung in a general meeting of the Workers' Party in February 1974. He took over after his father's death in 1994.

Jong-un's nomination was completely unexpected in the North, even among party leaders, multiple sources said.

"The sudden nomination caught even senior members of the leadership by surprise," another source said. "The power elite who have learned of Jong-un's designation are rushing to line up behind the junior Kim and this climate will rapidly spread across North Korean society," the source said.

The elder Kim is known to have shunned talks of a power transfer out of fear that the communist country would be subjected to mockery and that he would immediately become a lame duck.

The sources said Kim's deteriorating health condition changed his mind. North Korean media has portrayed the leader as healthy and active in recent weeks, reporting on his visits to factories and military units and releasing photographs of the reported tours. But sources say Kim has remained mentally feeble ever since the stroke.

Observers have said Kim favored his youngest son the most among his children. In his bestselling memoir "I Was Kim Jong Il's Cook," Kenji Fujimoto, a former Japanese sushi chef for the North Korean leader, said Kim thought of his second son, Jong-chol, as too effeminate and unfit for leadership, mostly seating Jong-un next to him.

"He is the spitting image of his father. Even his body build is similar," Fujimoto said in the book.

Kim's first son, Jong-nam, is frowned upon due to his liberal Western tastes and prodigal behavior and was not interested in assuming power, they said. Jong-nam is 38 and Jong-chol is 28.

Jong-un refrained from socializing in Berne, spending most of his time outside of school at home, according to the wishes of his father, who did not want him to be influenced by the West. When he ate out, he was accompanied by Ri Chol, the North Korean ambassador to Switzerland, who is known to be the manager of Kim Jong-il's secret funds, sources said.

The youngest son is said to be 175 centimeters tall and weigh about 90kg due to a lack of exercise. He reportedly already has high blood pressure and diabetes. Unlike his brothers, no images of him have been captured by foreign media.

The sources said Pyongyang will soon launch a propaganda drive to officially raise Jong-un's public standing.

North Korea is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on March 8, which Seoul experts forecast will promote young economic elite to lay the groundwork for the post-Kim era. The Institute for National Security Strategy, which is an arm of the National Intelligence Agency, said in a report in late December that economic pragmatism will emerge with the generational shift in the North.

Pyongyang has refrained from its usual anti-U.S. tirade in recent weeks and on Tuesday strongly urged Barack Obama's new U.S. administration to drop its "hostile policy" and normalize bilateral relations, a move that will also help lift economic sanctions on the North.

Kim Ho-nyoun, spokesman for Seoul's Unification Ministry that orchestrates inter-Korean policy, said, "Concerning the reported designation, we have not been able to confirm."

Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea studies professor at Seoul's Dongguk University, said the alleged designation was a sensitive issue but acknowledged it is feasible. The notion of a father-to-son takeover has become an inveterate part of the secretive state, he noted.

"North Korea has talked a lot about its founder Kim Il-sung and his father, as well as the current leader Kim Jong-il. Hereditary succession has become for the country a kind of conventional constitution," he said.

"The leader's health has worsened and he might have wanted to nip in the bud those who are trying to reach for power," Koh said.

Russian oligarch Alexander Lebedev to buy London Evening Standard

Luke Harding in Moscow and Mark Sweney
guardian.co.uk
January 14

Alexander Lebedev and London Evening Standard montage

Alexander Lebedev: read the Evening Standard when he was a young KGB agent. Photographs: AP/Public domain

The billionaire and former KGB agent Alexander Lebedev is to buy London's Evening Standard tomorrow, in a dramatic move that would see him become the first Russian oligarch to own a major British newspaper, MediaGuardian.co.uk can reveal.

Lebedev is poised to buy a controlling stake in the ailing title, following a year of secret negotiations with Lord Rothermere, its owner and the chairman of the Daily Mail & General Trust.

Under the terms of the deal Lebedev will purchase 76% of the newspaper, with the Associated Newspapers group retaining 24%. His son Evgeny, who lives in London, is due to sign the deal with Daily Mail & General Trust tomorrow. The agreement will make Lebedev the paper's controversial new proprietor.

A source close to DMGT admitted: "The deal is still very much alive." DMGT failed to comment.

The purchase will be an astonishing moment in British press history – the first time a former member of a foreign intelligence service has owned a British title. Speaking to MediaGuardian.co.uk on Wednesday, Lebedev said he had read the Evening Standard and other British newspapers when he was a young spy at the Soviet embassy in London in the late 1980s.

"I had to read every newspaper. I was there for that," he recalled. "I had to read the FT, the Guardian, Standard and the Daily Mail." The Standard was "a very good newspaper" with some "brilliant journalists," Lebedev said, adding that the Daily Mail was a "highly influential" title that closely reflected British public attitudes.

The Standard's sale to an ex-Russian spy is likely to have been discussed at the highest levels of government. It follows three years of fraught relations between London and Moscow following the November 2006 murder in London of Russian dissident Alexander Litvinenko – and the Kremlin's refusal to extradite Andrei Lugovoi, his alleged killer.

In Russia, however, Lebedev is known as a semi-opposition figure who has frequently been at odds with Vladimir Putin, Russia's former president and current prime minister. In 2003 he ran unsuccessfully against Moscow's pro-Kremlin mayor Yuri Luzhkov. Lebedev is also part owner of the critical Novaya Gazeta paper, one of the last sources of media opposition inside Russia to the government.

Last night Lebedev said he had no intention of interfering in British politics if he became the Standard's new owner. "My influence would be next to zero," he declared. He promised an "absolutely" hands-off approach, and said it would be up to the Standard's editor-in-chief and journalists to agree the paper's editorial line.

But it is understood that the Standard's editorial direction would inevitably change. The paper would be less under the influence of its sister paper, the Daily Mail, sources suggest, and would not necessarily reflect the Mail's rightwing editorial line. It would probably continue, however, to support Boris Johnson, London's Conservative mayor, they add.

The Daily Mail group is likely to fund the cost of redundancies for some Standard journalists, it is understood. The Russian tycoon also wants to establish a new editorial and advisory board for the Standard. This could include heavyweight global figures such as Mikhail Gorbachev – the former Soviet president and Lebedev's personal friend – as well as Tony Blair, former French president Jacques Chirac and leading Russian editors.

It was last night not clear how much Lebedev is paying for the Standard. Before the credit crunch, Forbes listed him 39th among Russia's top 100 billionaires, with a $3.1bn fortune. He puts his own wealth now at $2.5 billion. His portfolio includes one of Russia's largest private banks, a 30% stake in Aeroflot, Russia's state airline, and other interests including a London restaurant and a luxury Italian hotel.

On Wednesday Lebedev, who holds an annual fundraising event in London to support a charity for children with cancer, said he accepted it would be difficult to revive the Standard's flattening circulation. But he said he was keen to own the newspaper since – as a figure working outside the Kremlin – he has exhausted the publishing possibilities in his native Russia.

"As far as I'm concerned this [buying the Standard] has nothing to do with making money. There are lots of other ways. This is a good way to waste money," he told the Guardian.

The Evening Standard is facing a combination of the industry-wide downturn in advertising, the shift of readers to the internet and a war of attrition in London with rival News International. The two publishing companies have waged a bitter loss-making battle since launching their respective free afternoon papers, London Lite and the London Paper, in 2006.

Associated Newspapers, the DMGT subsidiary that also publishes the morning fresheet Metro, launched London Lite partly to protect the Standard against the London Paper. In November it emerged that DMGT had sought a truce of some kind with News International, an offer that was rebuffed. It has instead looked at a range of radical options for the Evening Standard – which now include its sale to a cash-rich Russian businessman.

Mr. Lebedev don't want to make money out of the Standard which he knew very well as a former KGB spy. The good Samaritan and the friend of the media.

Russian oligarchs, tycoons, former whatever always were interested - not for profit, of course - in the media. For the moment, remember the Gazprom-NTV case, only 8 years ago:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/1595416.stm

http://cpj.org/2001/04/gazprom-occupies-ntv-headquarters.php

http://www.eng.yabloko.ru/Publ/2001/Papers/mtimes-040401.html

'Synergy, symmetry, strategy' - Greek OSCE Chair pledges to be honest broker, forge stronger ties among States in time of challenge

VIENNA, 15 January 2009 - The OSCE is well placed to address Europe's changing geopolitical challenges in a time marked by crises, the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, Greek Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis, said today in her first address to the Organization's 56 participating States.

She also reiterated the 2009 Greek OSCE Chairmanship's commitment to ensuring the continuation of the OSCE's field presence in Georgia.

"Greece assumes the OSCE Chairmanship at a time when the quest for security in our region has become ever more complex," Bakoyannis told the OSCE Permanent Council. "In these circumstances, I believe the OSCE remains a vital point of reference within the UN framework. The OSCE is the only regional forum that encompasses the wider Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian regions. It is also rooted in a unique, ambitious concept of security based upon shared values, agreed commitments and the fundamental dignity of the individual."

She called the crisis in Georgia "both a challenge and an opportunity".

"This crisis has shaken us out of our complacency, and reminded us that our job is not done. It therefore provides us with the opportunity to look afresh at the mechanisms we have created, to re-dedicate ourselves to the full implementation of our agreed commitments, and to consider new ways to build indivisible security," she said.

Bakoyannis also underscored the urgent need to find consensus on continuing the OSCE's work in Georgia: "The future of the OSCE presence in Georgia requires our special attention. It is evident that the situation on the ground and throughout the region requires more OSCE presence, not less. The OSCE has a long tradition of imaginative and flexible solutions, but these can only work if there is good will and political courage on all sides."

Pledging the Chairmanship's commitment to acting as an honest broker, Bakoyannis said that Greece was ready to continue discussions on the future of European security.

Bakoyannis outlined the Chairmanship's priorities for the year, based on the cornerstones of "synergy, symmetry and strategy", including the peaceful resolution of the region's protracted conflicts and enhancing the legal status of the OSCE.

Priorities in the politico-military dimension of the OSCE's work include promoting implementation of OSCE commitments on counter-terrorism as well as border security and policing, including enhancing engagement with Afghanistan, an OSCE partner country.

In the economic and environmental dimension, the Chairmanship will focus on the challenges of migration as well as addressing the security aspects of environmental challenges, especially climate change. "Greening the OSCE" - promoting environmental sustainability within the Organization - will also be a focus.

Bakoyannis said the Chairmanship's priorities for the human dimension of security would be strengthening rule of law in the region, as well as gender equality and mainstreaming.

She also emphasized the OSCE's role in ensuring that the global financial crisis does not threaten stability and security in its region. Addressing energy concerns, Bakoyannis reminded participating States of their commitment, adopted in 2003 in Maastricht, calling for "a predictable, reliable, economically acceptable, commercially sound and environmentally friendly energy supply".

Greece took over the one-year Chairmanship of the Organization on 1 January, succeeding Finland. Kazakhstan will follow in 2010.

For PDF attachments or links to sources of further information, please visit: http://www.osce.org/item/35886.html

For further information contact:

Martin Nesirky - Spokesperson
Press and Public Information Section
Wallnerstrasse 6
1010 Vienna
Austria
Tel.: +43 1 514 36 6150 (office) +43 664 859 08 26 (mobile)
Fax: +43 1 514 36 6105
E-mail: spokesperson@osce.org

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Peaceful protest turns to riot in Sofia

By Kerin Hope in Athens and agencies

January 14

Financial Times

Bulgarian police on Wednesday clashed with demonstrators outside the parliament building in Sofia amid rising political and social tension over continued energy shortages.

Witnesses said police broke up an anti-government rally organised by students and ecological groups after being pelted with snowballs. ”We are tired of living in the European Union’s poorest and most corrupt country,” said a statement by the rally organisers.

”This government is a symbol of theft and corruption,” said protester Alexander Atanasov, 31. ”They simply have to go,” said Tsetska Vachkova, 31.

When police tried to drive rioters away from parliament, some began to destroy cars and hurled metal bars and cobblestones dug up from the streets at shop and office windows. Police made more than 170 arrests.

The violence came as Sergey Stanishev, the prime minister held talks in Moscow on resuming gas transfers to Bulgaria, one week after the pipeline from Romania was shut down. Gazprom supplies 100 per cent of Bulgaria’s gas imports.

Riots also broke out on Tuesday in fellow ex-communist Latvia after a peaceful anti-government demonstration. Thousands of protesters had gathered in Riga to demand the resignation of the government, accusing it of economic mismanagement.

Strikes on Israel From Lebanon Raise New Tensions

by Farnaz Fassihi

The Wall Street Journal

January 15

BEIRUT -- The war in Gaza, with its mounting casualties and threat of destabilizing the region, is presenting Lebanon's government with a new challenge: controlling its border with Israel as the risk of a second front in the war looms.

On Wednesday, three rockets fired from southern Lebanon hit Israel, the second such incident since the conflict between Hamas and Israel started nearly three weeks ago. Israel responded by shelling southern Lebanon and flying a helicopter gunship low above the area. No casualties were reported on either side. The Lebanese army found three other rockets ready to be launched into Israel and some explosives.

European Pressphoto Agency

Lebanese soldiers inspect a rocket that fell short of the Israeli border. Other rockets struck Israel Wednesday in attacks Lebanon condemned

No one has claimed responsibility for the attacks, and Lebanon's moderate, pro-Western prime minister, Fouad Siniora, condemned them. Lebanese officials speculate that they are the work of militant Palestinian groups that operate from within the several Palestinian refugee camps inside Lebanon. The Iranian-backed Shiite group Hezbollah said Wednesday that it wasn't responsible for the attacks.

Automated calls in Arabic warned residents of Beirut and southern Lebanon not to retaliate against Israel, as images of dead Palestinian children in Gaza flickered across Arabic news broadcasts in Lebanon, fueling resentment and anger at Israel. The Lebanese army sent special forces to the south to beef up security.

The government said all Lebanese factions, including rival party Hezbollah, had a consensus not to drag the country into another war with Israel.

"The risk is always there that things can quickly escalate, but these are really the acts of people outside the government. It's not accepted by us whatsoever and clearly we don't want to open this front," said finance minister Mohamad Chatah, a close adviser to Mr. Siniora.

Lebanon, despite its tiny size, is regarded as a key element in stabilizing the region. It has often been the place where regional powers such as Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia fought out their grievances against each other and against Israel and the U.S.

The country is just starting to recover from two years of political standoff and a period of violent clashes in 2008 between Hezbollah and the U.S.-backed Sunni political party aligned with Mr. Siniora. When consensus for a government was reached in May, Hezbollah gained veto power, delivering a blow to the U.S.'s influence in Lebanese politics.

Mr. Siniora has been eager to show Lebanon can act as one state. He struck a cease-fire deal between Hezbollah and Israel after a month-long conflict in 2006 by vowing to implement a United Nations Security Council resolution that mandates the south, a Hezbollah stronghold, be policed by the Lebanese army and U.N. forces.

The threat of rogue elements in the south could hurt Mr. Siniora. Lebanon will have parliamentarian elections in June and all parties, including Hezbollah, have been campaigning on their ability to rebuild and unite the country.

"Everything we have built in the past few years is at stake. If the frequency of the attacks increases, if there are any casualties on both sides, we have a lot to lose," says Oussama Safa, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies in Beirut.

In Gaza City, Israeli soldiers engaged with Hamas militants in the densely populated streets. Rockets continued to strike Israel. Palestinian casualties reached over 1,000 Wednesday with 4,550 wounded, according to medical workers from Gaza's Ministry of Health. Thirteen Israelis have died, including 10 soldiers, according to Israel's military.

-- Joshua Mitnick in Tel Aviv contributed to this article.

Write to Farnaz Fassihi at farnaz.fassihi@wsj.com

Stratfor Geopolitical Diary: Obama's Mexico Challenge

Stratfor.com

Mexican Interior Secretary Fernando Gomez Mont on Wednesday criticized a report from the U.S. Joint Forces Command that warns of the potential for the Mexican state to collapse, and says a devolution of control in Mexico would require U.S. intervention. Gomez Mont’s statement, along with rising concern throughout the United States over Mexico’s stability, serves as yet another reminder of the challenges that face the Mexican government — and the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Barack Obama.

At a time when violence in Mexico has soared to record highs — with over 5,700 people killed in organized crime-related violence in 2008 — the U.S. government has gradually begun to take notice of the severity of the situation. While the United States certainly has been waiting for the transition to a new administration, there has been a shift in the way Mexico is being discussed in policy circles. This shift has included the release of a Joint Operating Environment 2008 report from the U.S. military warning of the possible “sudden collapse” of Mexico. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Department of Justice and National Security Council have all, in one way or another, expressed similar concerns that either Mexico will collapse under the strain of the violence, or that there could be significant spillover of violence into the United States.

Some of this rhetoric is tuned at a pitch designed to alert the incoming Obama administration to the dangers of failing to address the storm brewing south of the border. And to some extent, the Obama team is listening. Mexican President Felipe Calderon has been the only foreign head of state to meet with Obama prior to his inauguration next week, and the two expressed hopes for mutual cooperation in coming years. And in a statement during her confirmation ceremony yesterday, Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton said the new administration will pursue a more involved relationship with Mexico and the rest of Latin America.

Crafting a Latin America policy from whole cloth will be a challenge for the Obama administration, as the region’s relationship with the United States has wallowed in a certain degree of neglect from the outgoing Bush administration. Clinton promised that the Obama administration would use energy partnerships to secure a close relationship with Latin America — a particularly important policy goal given that Venezuela and Mexico are among the top five suppliers of oil to the United States. Obama’s administration also plans to do away with travel and remittance restrictions Bush has levied against Cuba.

But Mexico’s volatile security situation remains perhaps the most significant potential challenge to the new administration, and it is not clear whether there is a great deal more that can be done to face the issue. With connections strengthening between U.S. street gangs and Mexican cartels, the problem of Mexican violence is by no means limited to the Mexican side of the border.

This is not to say that the U.S. government has been idle in facing the issue; the Merida Initiative allocated hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars to enhancing training and equipment for Mexican law enforcement. But Merida is just the highest-profile of a series of initiatives the Bush administration has been quietly implementing with Mexico over the last few years, including record increases in extraditions, expansion of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency’s (DEA) administrative presence in Mexico and increased intelligence sharing. Boosted funding for local U.S. law enforcement and border patrol has facilitated operations along the U.S. side of the border and helped to reduce some arms smuggling into Mexico, and has had a major impact on border traffic patterns. This means that the low-hanging policy options available to a U.S. president have already been implemented — and what remain are the more difficult policy decisions.

For example, one of the Mexican government’s top complaints is over the flow of illegal weapons from the United States into Mexico. The United States is the No. 1 source of illegal weapons in Mexico (although there is a significant flow through Central America), and many of the weapons smuggled into Mexico are purchased legally and untraceably at gun shows inside the United States. Sources within the Mexican government consider greater funding for programs like Operation Gunrunner, which funds arms interdiction on the U.S. side of the border, to be one of the main areas in which the Obama administration could deliver significant changes for Mexico. However, the chance that substantial revisions to the way the United States approaches gun and weapons regulations will be made in the name of a partnership with Mexico appear to be low.

But inflexibility is not limited to the United States. The degree to which Mexico is unwilling to allow any sort of operational freedom for U.S. law enforcement, or the presence of U.S. military advisers, prevents any serious help from U.S. agencies such as the DEA, which have proven to be highly effective at combating organized crime in countries like Colombia. Mexico remembers well the U.S. invasions of its north in 1914 and 1916, during the Mexican Revolution. Many blame the United States for breaking the back of the Mexican government by forcing the military to split its deployment into fighting Zapatista rebels in the south and Pancho Villa to the north. Thus Mexico, as a whole, is loath to allow U.S. troops to tread on Mexican soil in the new century.

The possibility of genuine U.S.-Mexican cooperation in combating the horrific violence plaguing Mexico raises more questions than it answers. But without a notable change in the patterns of violence (for instance, a shift to targeting civilians on either side of the border, or the assassination of major leaders in Mexico) to provide greater urgency and impetus for a policy shift, there seems to be little that can be done without expending a great deal of political capital. With the Obama administration facing challenges from a resurgent Russia to a chaotic Pakistan, major shifts in policy toward Mexico do not seem likely in the near future.

Chinese officials gamble, and their luck runs out

By Mark McDonald

Thursday, January 15, 2009
The New York Times

MACAO: As mayor of a small city in the Chinese hinterland, Li Weimin started out innocently enough, playing the slots in nearby Macao, games with names like Five Dragons, Chinese Kitchen and Super Happy Fortune Cat.

But he soon began to try his hand at other games, and for higher stakes, financing his increasingly frequent trips to glitzy casinos by dipping into the municipal budget and several real estate firms under his control.

"It was easy for me to borrow or divert money from those places," the 43- year-old Li said at his trial, according to a state-run newspaper, China Daily. Eventually he lost $12 million and was sentenced to 20 years in prison.

Li is one of an increasing number of Communist Party bosses and government officials who, government prosecutors say, pillaged state funds, company accounts and municipal treasuries to try their luck in Macao, which sits just across the border from Guandong Province.

Many of the biggest losers have been sent to prison and at least 15 have been executed. Some have committed suicide. The scandals have become a source of deep embarrassment for the Chinese government, which has now begun cracking down on travel visas for Macao.

While gambling remains illegal in mainland China, it is pure oxygen for Macao, which Portugal handed back to China in December 1999. The tiny territory, which has been enjoying a gambling-tourist-building boom since 2004, relies on gambling for 75 percent of its tax base.

Now the biggest gambling market in the world, Macao has annual gambling revenues higher than the Las Vegas Strip and Atlantic City combined. Among its 31 casinos is the world's largest, the Venetian Macao.

Much of that prosperity is now threatened, experts here say, not only by the global economic crisis but also by the crackdown on gambling by the government in Beijing. The issue is so sensitive in China that more than a dozen interview requests over the past month were refused by government and party leaders.

A Chongqing official, the head of the local Communist Party's propaganda department, was accused of embezzling a total of $24 million. Along with a co-worker, he blew at least half the money at the Casino Lisboa here, according to Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency.

The Chinese officials who gamble here lose mostly at baccarat, the game of choice in Macao, but they also lose at blackjack, poker and a dice game called Fish-Prawn-Crab. And even though many of them are neophyte gamblers, they often bet thousands of dollars on a single hand.

A 2008 study of 99 high rollers from mainland China showed that 59 had some sort of state affiliation: 33 were government officials, 19 were senior managers at state-owned enterprises and 7 were cashiers at state businesses. They were typically men, between 30 and 49 years old, and lived in mainland areas close to Macao.

The government officials reported losing an average of $2.7 million each, according to the study, which was conducted by Zeng Zhonglu, a professor at Macao Polytechnic Institute. State managers lost $1.9 million each, on average, and cashiers dropped an average of $500,000. Most said their gambling careers lasted less than four years before they were found out.

Their losses at the tables bankrupted at least 10 companies. An editorial in the Beijing Youth Daily said gambling by public officials "threatens the safety of the national treasury," though it is unclear just how much public money has been gambled away.

"I doubt even the Chinese government knows," said Desmond Lam, an expert on Macao and Chinese gambling who is currently a senior research fellow at the University of South Australia. "Still, the figure is likely to be very substantial, at least in the hundreds of millions so far.

"And if you include the undetected money, it must be higher."

China had tried repeatedly to clamp down on gambling by public officials but had never had much success until hitting on the idea of limiting visas. The new visa regulations, which went into effect last summer, limit mainland officials to just one trip every three months, and for no more than seven days, and have been highly effective, gambling analysts and scholars say.

"It has been a very, very serious problem, but it's better now," said Zeng, the author of the study on high rollers. "The mainland government has strict controls over officials coming to Macao."

But along the way, the restrictions have helped turn Macao's boom into something of a bust, a connection that was underscored on Monday, when the stocks of Macao casino companies plunged by a fifth after Beijing announced that it would retain the visa controls. Share prices of the companies are down more than 80 percent on average from their highs a year ago.

Casino bosses, tour operators, shop owners, restaurateurs and hoteliers say they are feeling the pain from what Samuel Yeung, the manager of the landmark Hotel Lisboa, calls "the tightening control of mainland China."

Gambling revenues are plunging and luxury shops are empty. Soaring hotel and apartment towers stand half-finished. Thousands of construction and casino workers have been fired. Last month at the Venetian, half the singing gondoliers on its indoor "Grand Canal" were abruptly fired.

"The government is saying Macao is going too fast and we need to cool it down," said Davis Fong, a business professor and director of the Institute for the Study of Commercial Gaming at the University of Macao. He cited a freeze on new projects and tighter regulations on the territory's casinos.

It is as if the gold is running out in the Klondike.

"It's not so much the global downturn that's having an effect on Macao; it's the visa restrictions that are having the most impact," said Anil Daswani, an analyst in Hong Kong who follows the gambling industry for Citigroup. "Clearly there was way too much capital coming into Macao, and the mainland is trying to cool the economy.

"But it's definitely worrying. Volumes are down materially."

The gas war - the dispute continues

By DAVID JOLLY, The New York Times

The standoff between Russia and Ukraine over the flow of natural gas left millions of homes in Europe without heating fuel for another day on Wednesday. The Russian gas monopoly, Gazprom, said in a news release that Naftogaz, its Ukrainian counterpart, had refused for a second day to accept natural gas from Russia for transit to Europe, despite the presence of European monitors whose presence was meant to ensure the flow of exports. In Kiev, Ukraine, Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko was quoted by the national news agency as saying that the transfer of Russian gas to Europe had not been restored because of Russian actions. In Strasbourg, France, José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, told members of the European Parliament that officials were considering legal action against the Russian and Ukrainian companies involved in the cutoff.

See also:

The costs of this war - EU Observer

Bin Laden strikes back

(No, he's not dead.)

Euro at 10

Achievements and responsabilities: J.Cl. Trichet's speech

Protests in Latvia's capital

Riga, hit by anti-government riots.

Two Arab parties banned from Israeli poll

Reactions after the Knesset Central Elections Committee decided on Monday disqualifying the Balad and the United Arab List- Ta'al to participate at the February 25 Israeli parliamentary elections.

Jerusalem Post

Ha'aretz

Fundamentalism, fought with the education weapon

When going to school, for a young girl is not something normal and, plus, it involves life risks. In Afghanistan.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Latest from the Middle East

Last operations on the ground, Day 18 - IHT

The tasks of diplomacy - The Jerusalem Post

Egypt pushes Hamas to accept truce - AP

China is entering the stage - Xinhua

Two men stoned to death in Iran

As simple as death. The stoning did not exist in Iran until 1983. Last year, Amnesty International started a campaign against these practices. Unsuccessful.

The working agenda of the EU Czech Presidency

The priorities of the EU Czech Presidency - http://www.eu2009.cz/en/czech-presidency/programme-and-priorities/programme-and-priorities-479/

Ethiopia troops leave Mogadishu

It could be the end of the war or not. The conflict is not over and Somalia is only a generic name of a country lacking government or any other functional institutions.

Darfur: Neverending war

Darfur, still fighting at the brinks of chaos.

Obama team, preparing the changes

One of the first decisions to be taken by the new US president, after January 20, will to start the process of closing Guantanamo. Today, Hillary R. Clinton appears before the Senate, in the hearings for the position of top US Diplomat.

UPDATE: Hilary Clinton promised to renew the US leadership. But, of course, starting from a current situation and trying to manage projects already started, as the situation in Afghanistan. US are having already a leadership position and the State Department is already working on various diplomatic fronts, through its diplomats all over the world.

See also: Key foreign policy statements by Obama, Clinton - Reuters

Voices of difference: Christopher Hitchens in Slate

John Vinocur, IHT - Diplomacy weakened by words without action

German minister of Foreign Affairs, Frank-Walter Steinmeier - Open letter to Barack Obama - The US-German partnership

Busy time in Moscow

For the moment, Russia decided to end the gas crisis. Meanwhile, Russia's ruble falls to a six year low, threatening to deepen the country's economic crisis. Even, for sure, the president in Kremlin had a very full agenda, Dmitri Medvedev found some time to post opinions on his blog about the need to revitalize the sports in his country and allowed, for the first time in months, the posting of comments from the readers.

The last press conference of W. Bush

George W. Bush recognized he made some mistakes, but praised his eight years in office as a "good, strong record", at his last press conference held Monday, January 12, at the White House. His few regrets: the handling of Iraq - Abu Ghraib, "a huge disappointment" -, the reaction in the case of Hurricane Katrina or the choice, after the 2004 elections, to focus on Social Security reform instead of first addressing immigration issues.

On Thursday night he's expected to deliver a farewell address, a ritual dating to George Washington.

Friday, January 9, 2009

Obama, the brand

The US are in serious recession, but the brand "Obama" is going better and better, 11 days before the inauguration of the new president's mandate.

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Democracy is restored in Bangladesh

After two years of military rule, the new Bangladeshi prime-minister sworn in, January 6. The first session of the new Parliament will be hold January 25. Fighting terrorism and corruption will be one of the priorities of the new Cabinet, altogether with restoring the independence of the judiciary, or the guarantee of a secular state. In the new Government, five women out of 31 members are coordinating ten important domains, among which the Foreign Affairs.

Journalist killed in Sri Lanka

Parliamentary protests in Sri Lanka after the killing of an outspoken journalist who covered topics of high-level corruption. Sri Lanka is fighting a 25 years war with the Tamil Tigers, which left at least 70,000 victims.

See also: Transparency International on Sri Lanka

TIME on Lasantha Wickramatunga

Press Advisory - ECFR experts call for Energy Security Summit

Following recent developments in Europe 's gas crisis, experts at the European Council on Foreign Relations have issued the following reactions:

Pierre Nöel, Senior Policy Fellow and energy Expert, says: "It's high time the EU gets serious about gas security and presses ahead with the creation of a single gas market. Moreover, the EU must be instrumental in the push for investment in energy security in Eastern Member States. The Czech Presidency should organise a summit where each member state is asked to present a national action plan, which could be backed by common resources."

Andrew Wilson, Senior Policy Fellow and expert on Russia and Ukraine, says: "Europe has woken up to the fact that gas 'crises' are now an annual New Year event, and is rightly resentful at being held hostage to a far-off argument between two neighbouring states. But the truth is even worse: Europe is being held hostage to a Russo-Ukrainian corruption scheme which is a cancer in the politics of the whole of Eastern Europe ."

Vessela Tcherneva, Senior Policy Fellow and Head of ECFR's Sofia Office, says:

"The lesson from the gas crisis in Bulgaria and other countries in the region is that close bilateral relationships with Russia do not translate into gas security. Countries such as Bulgaria , Serbia and Greece , who played the role of Russian 'Trojan horses', were among the first whose gas deliveries were interrupted. Only a European-wide solution - interconnecting the networks of East and West - can be a sustainable one."

ECFR argues for an EU energy security conference to discuss and agree national strategies by vulnerable states to make the European Union less vulnerable for these kinds of crisis situations. The Czech presidency should take the lead in designing a common EU response to this recurring challenge, which regards the whole EU, and not only the East European countries, which are directly affected by the gas cut.

See more on this issue:

EU press Russia to comply its obligations

The players of the game

Pew Center: Hamas popularity, on the rise, again

Pew Global, January 8, 2009

In the Middle East and elsewhere, Muslim reaction to the Israeli offensive in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip has been swift and angry, with protests in Amman, Beirut, Istanbul, Tehran, Jakarta, and several other capitals.

Palestinians in East Jerusalem and in the West Bank, where Hamas rival Fatah dominates, have also demonstrated against Israel, some carrying the green flag of Hamas into the streets.

However, before the current conflict in Gaza, Hamas hardly enjoyed universal popularity among Muslims, and among some key Arab publics, its support had been waning.

The 2008 Pew Global Attitudes survey found significant opposition to the organization in several predominantly Muslim countries, not to mention considerable opposition to suicide bombing -- a frequent tactic of Hamas in the past -- as well as deep reservations about one of Hamas' chief sponsors, Iran.

Still, given the striking antipathy toward Israel throughout much of the Arab and Muslim worlds, if Hamas survives reasonably intact and comes to be viewed as the Palestinians' primary defender against the Jewish state, its popularity may rise.

Read the full report: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1075/before-israels-invasion-hamas-popularity-was-waning-among-its-neighbors-even-in-gaza-itsel

See also: ADL - Anti-Semitism, on the rise

Stephen J. Hadley on Korea, Iran, Pakistan and Africa

Stephen J. Hadley, national security adviser of the Bush administration made his farewell speech:

- In the Middle East, Iran will be the biggest challenge for the new administration;

- The peace in this region have to continue to be on the top of the agenda - "a democratic Iraq, a free Lebanon and a democratic Palestinian state" are the key-elements of a substantial change;

- North Korea should accept a verification agreement;

- African countries need support in order to decrease the skepticism over the advantages of democracy;

Preparing the change in Washington

Vanity Fair: An Oral History of the Bush White House

Yushchenko Seeks to Use Gas War to Push Ukraine Closer to West

By James M. Gomez and Agnes Lovasz

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko may be calculating that his “No” to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in their dispute over natural gas will make the West more likely to say “Yes” to him.

Yushchenko’s rejection of Russia’s demand that his country pay more for Russian gas reinforces his message that Ukraine’s future lies in closer ties with the European Union, which meets today to look for ways to resolve the dispute, rather than with Russia, its neighbor and fellow former Soviet republic.

The dispute comes as Ukraine is torn by infighting between top politicians, a sharp decline in Yushchenko’s popularity and a global financial crisis that prompted a bailout by the International Monetary Fund. The risk is that his tactics may backfire, weakening the country’s bid to join the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

“When people in Europe look at Ukraine, all they see is squabbling, self-serving politicians, and they don’t have much sympathy in the West any more,” said Katinka Barysch, deputy director of the London-based Centre for European Reform.

“The Russians have zero credibility but the Ukrainians don’t have much more,” she said.

Russia’s gas monopoly, OAO Gazprom, and NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy yesterday said all gas shipments to Europe through Ukraine were halted, causing some countries to ration supplies. The two state-controlled companies blamed each other for the stoppage. About 80 percent of Russian gas to Europe flows through Ukraine.

Mediation

A team of EU lawmakers today will hold mediation talks in Brussels with the two companies to try to forge a compromise. Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in Russia’s upper house of parliament, said Ukraine is drawing out the conflict to erode Russia’s relations with Europe. Russia has been on poor terms with its neighbor since Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution, which brought Yushchenko to power with promises to join the EU and NATO.

Yushchenko, 54, criticized Russia’s August war with Georgia and pleaded with NATO in Brussels on Dec. 1 to ignore Russia’s opposition to Ukraine’s application to join the Atlantic accord. On Nov. 25, he urged Russia to reach agreement on gas pricing before the end of December, saying the issue would otherwise become “political, not economic.”

“There are attempts in Ukraine to tarnish the image of Russia as a reliable energy partner,” said Alexander Rahr, director of Russian programs at Berlin’s German Council on Foreign Relations. Ukraine “is forming an image of Russia as a foe and Ukraine as a victim.”

Czech Complaint

Ukraine’s EU bid so far hasn’t been helped by the conflict. Czech Prime Minster Mirek Topolanek, whose country took over the EU’s six-month rotating presidency on Jan. 1, warned yesterday that the 27-nation bloc would have to toughen its response to the gas crisis if supplies are not restored by today. He said he spoke with Putin yesterday, adding that both countries may have to compromise.

European Commission President Jose Barroso, speaking at a press conference in Prague yesterday, warned the two countries not to let the dispute hurt the rest of Europe and said it may erode the EU’s trust in both nations. “It’s critical” that supplies “start immediately,” he said.

Ukraine’s relationship with NATO hasn’t improved either, after the organization last month stuck by its April decision to offer neither Ukraine nor and Georgia a pre-membership plan.

Political Adversaries

While bidding for support abroad, Yushchenko is losing friends at home as he regularly feuds with Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko and prepares to run for re-election against Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian opposition leader he beat in 2004.

A Dec. 17-24 survey by the Kiev-based Razumkov Center for Economic and Political Studies gave Yushchenko’s party a 4.5 percent popularity rating, compared with 27.2 percent for the party of Yanukovych.

His support began to wane in 2006, when Russia withheld gas to Ukraine for the first time over a pricing dispute. Yushchenko backed down in the face of Russian demands to pay double the price. Last year, he dissolved parliament and called for early elections to be held in December, only to delay the elections indefinitely and re-establish a coalition government with Timoshenko, whom he had previously dismissed -- a move that raised further doubts about the country’s stability.

At the same time, the global financial crisis has caused the national currency, the hryvnia, to plunge and the credit market to freeze up, prompting the IMF to approve a $16.4 billion loan on Nov. 6. Gross domestic product, which grew at a 6.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter, may shrink by as much as 7 percent in the first quarter of next year, Yushchenko said on Dec. 16.

Eastern Europe

Should the dispute continue beyond the next few days, eastern Europe’s economy, already hit by worldwide economic and market turmoil, may suffer further, said Rory MacFarquhar, an economist at Goldman Sachs in Moscow.

Slovakia and Hungary, both EU members, restricted natural- gas supplies to industrial customers a day after Slovakia declared a state of emergency. Bulgaria, which depends on Russia for all of its gas needs, will seek compensation for any financial and economic losses incurred from the shutoff, Economy Minister Petar Dimitrov said at a press conference in Sofia yesterday.

“If it drags on, then it will potentially have a huge impact,” said Neil Shearing, an emerging-market economist at London-based Capital Economics.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

The Middle East front

- Lebanon fire rockets hit the north of Israel

- The bombardments continued in Gaza, while the US is supporting the ceasefire

- No UN Security Council agreement reached

- Thomas L. Friedman - Mideast's Ground Zero

Sino-American relations, 30 years after

NYSE celebrated on Monday the 30th anniversary of establishment of China-US relations, with the participation of the architect of the new Sino-American cooperation, former secretary of state Henry Kissinger.

See also: Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte's address

Switzerland, to decide availability of EU agreements

The extreme right Swiss national party started a campaign against the possibility that Bulgarians and Romanians work freely in the country. February 8 a referendum will be hold in order to decide if the citizens of these two countries could benefit of the same rights with older EU members. Swiss business leaders launched too a campaign in order to safeguard the agreement with the European Union. At the end of the last year, Switzerland joined Schengen area, and Lichtenstein remained as an inner border of the EU, its application to be part of the free travel agreement being still under consideration.

Cuban revolution turns 50

The last 50 years of the official Cuba, in Reuters' pictures - http://uk.reuters.com/news/pictures/rpSlideshows?articleId=UKRTR22ZAN#a=1. On the occasion of the anniversary, they were held various events - lower profile than usual -, as ordinary Cubans continue to struggle daily through hard times brought on by a sputtering state-run economy and a decades-long trade and travel embargo by the United States. It is not clear how the new Obama administration will position regarding Cuba, but before a clear statement, a group of human rights supporter asked the lifting of the embargo.

Ashura celebrations in Shi'a communities

Millions of members of Shi'a communities celebrated Ashura in the Iraqi city of Karbala.

See also: http://www.slate.com/id/2208110/

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Russia is using again the gas weapon

On another fronts, the dispute between Russia and Ukraine over the gas supplies is affecting seven European and Balkan countries.

War in the Middle East - day 11

- Israel agreed to open an humanitarian corridor to Gaza, starting Wednesday - VoA

- UN secretary general called for a cease-fire - Telegraph

- Egypt proposed a ceasefire - Reuters

- French president Nicolas Sarkozy ended in Egypt his Mideast trip - VoA

- Venezuela expels Israel's envoy - BBC

- The War 2.0, The Jerusalem Post

- The war from the media perspective - NYTimes

US and the Middle East

How the new US Middle East policy could look like: http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20090101faessay88104/richard-n-haass-martin-indyk/obama-s-middle-east-agenda.html

Richard N. Haass is a diplomat and author of many books dealing with foreign policy, and since 2003 president of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Martin Indyk is former US ambassador to Israel and former Clinton's National Security Council Middle East adviser. He has served as Middle East adviser to the prime minister of Australia, and as an international media and communications adviser to former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir in Israel.

A new American embassy in Iraq

The new US embassy in Iraq was opened Monday, January 5, within the Green Zone. The Iraqi prime-minister, Nouri al-Maliki, was absent, while on a two-day visit in Iran, more than three weeks ahead the parliamentary elections, a new test of the nascent democracy from Baghdad. The works at the embassy lasted for three years. The event is considered a moved towards a normalization of the diplomatic and political life in the former dictatorship run country.

Samuel Huntington - 1927-2008

A selection of articles of Samuel Huntington, dead at the end of the last year, published in Foreign Affairs. Even he was mentioned mainly for his highly controversial theory from the "Clash of Civilizations", Huntington had lots of contributions in the area of the theories about sustainable democracies and changes.

An obituary of his former student, Fareed Zacharia - http://www.fareedzakaria.com/articles/articles.html