Book review: The Arab Revolutions

I saw this German collective volume shortly after it was published and was tempted to buy it immediately, interested to read the ideas about the new situation in the Middle East from a German perspective. The Germans were always very interested in the area and they have a lot of well trained specialists that travel often in the area, for academic and economic purposes.

However, I did not expect too much to find so many data and only few evaluations, if any, of the current situation. The overall tone of the book - analysing the 'revolutions' (a term whose opportunity is not discussed at all) in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia, Jordan, UAE, Libya - is naively optimistic, as most cases are seen as a fight of 'good' vs. 'evil'. I did not identified any critical perspective of the situation and even less the seeds of the current Islamist debacle in almost the entire area.

For someone with a fresh mind, the book will offer a lot of details and historical information about the 'revolutionary' moment and thus, could be easily used as a basic source for documenting the situation in the Middle East. 

Jerusalem is not for trade

Without being too close to the way in which the Democratic Party sees the world, but curious about politics and especially the US electoral campaign, I was a bit surprised when I've heard about their intention to include in their electoral platform the reference to Jerusalem, as the capital city of the Jewish state.

I was not always online and not always careful about what's going on in Washington DC, but as far as I know, in the last four years, it was a President representing the Democratic Party who selected the head of the State Department. Some things are hard to understand sometimes, but the representatives of the Obama administrations had the occasion to travel quite often to Israel and to understand where the capital city is located. In addition, a representative of the the same State Department under Obama administration outlined that no way to do any change of strategy and no plans to change the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Jokes put aside, I don't think that the history of the city of Jerusalem should be a matter of playing games at the political gatherings. This is another example of bubbling politics but also of desperation from the part of Obama team, trying to get on their side many Israelis with American passport, some who made aliyah recently. However, any smart kid in the primary school in Jerusalem will know that this is not a political business and with or without the official recognition of the Democrats, Jerusalem will always be the capital city of the state of Israel. They better try to focus on economy and the social failures, they have a lot of things to do in this respect.

Online updates for the US elections

US  elections are only a couple of months away and the boiling online environment is getting ready little by little.

We will publish in the coming days an in-depth analysis of the main challengers and the possible results, but till then, we found an interesting overview of the most important sources of information for the next time, via Storify. 

One of the merits of Pres. Obama was to introduce the 2.0 into the American politics and I am ready to learn more about the e-campaigns this time too. For the moment, there are alreaby digital handbooks being published, some in a very innovative way. 

What's next? What should we follow mostly, mainly when it comes to the next electoral fight in the US? Working hard to publish some interesting insights soon.

Foreign policy news on Tumblr?

I am familiar with Tumblr and even operate a blog on this platform, and I am aware of the constraints. In general, the most successful Tumblr blogs are covering colorful domains, as fashion, arts and spectacular teens productions.
However, with a lot of inspiration,Tumblr could be used as well for foreign policy news and blogging. An example is the new blog of the International Relations and Security Network - ISN ETH Zurich that launched recently a new online media tool. It is an elegant and appealing presence, pleasant to read and with a very interesting content.

Poland's challenges

Poland in between worlds, continents and geological challenges. A Stratfor analysis worth to read.

New story of UNFIL Mandate in Lebanon

In a couple of days, UNFIL Mandate in Lebanon is about to expire. In August 2010, the mandate was extended for another two years.

Due to the tensed situation in the region, it could be possible to expend another extension of the mandate. Some local politicians even requested the expansion of the mandate within the joint border with Syria. At the end of June, Turkey already decided to continue to allow its military in UNFIL for one more year.

The extension should be decided by the UN Security Council. 

After so many tensions and conflicts, Lebanon continues to be a stronghold of influences from Syria and Iran. More or less openly, the official representatives of this country are regularly involved in influence the daily local policies. Very often, the literary sources mention the Lebanon as the 'Paris of the Middle East' and maybe it used to be so - apparently, Paris is the fascination cities of so many continents and countries than the reference is sometimes too stereotypical to be at least 50% true - but how culture could flourish when it is no independence and secret services are careful to oppose any manifestation of independence. In comparison with Syria, the Lebanese intellectuals did not cope with the same pressures, but the regular presence of Hizbullah terrorist within their borders diminished clearly the cultural strength and attractivity of Lebanon. 

Maybe, one day.

Is Somalia ready for a new president?

At the beginning of the next week, Somalia will held presidential elections, over a year after the Islamic forces were kept away of the official game. 

The country still faces democratic problems, corruption and the need to counter the influence of Al Shabaab who continues to control large areas of the country in order to guarantee security and stability. 

Local analysists are optimistic and hope that at least little by little the situation will enter a certain path of normality. Some are even returning back in the country with big hopes and desire to contribute to the reconstruction process. In many areas of the country, the fights against Shabaab continues. 

The candidates promise to restore the rule of law and to contribute to the overall peaceful efforts. The neighbouring countries as Kenya are equally interested in a positive outcome due to the potential of regional conflict represented by the Islamist forces. 

Obviously, not only the president will be needed to end up the political turmoil, but the coordinated efforts of the Parliament, Government and international organizations involved in the area. 

The top agenda of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit in Mecca

For the next two days, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation - with status of permanent observer mission to the UN in New York - extraordinary summit will take place in Mecca, discussing the latest top issues for the member countries, among which:

- The decision to suspend Syria's membership from OIC following the serious situation affecting this country. As expected, Iran opposes.

- The issue of democratic transition in the region - including possibly the latest situation in Egypt.

- The idea of this extraordinary meeting was: "to examine the situation in many countries of the Islamic world, intensify efforts to confront this situation, address the sources of discord and division therein, reunite the Islamic ummah and promote Islamic solidarity". A nice objective, but the reality tells that the Islamic countries are divided not only by the classical Shi'a vs. Sunni division line, but also by the clear difference in terms of culture, democratic experience and political committment.

- Afghanistan-Pakistan discussions are scheduled on the sidelines.

- The conference will be attended also by the US Special Envoy Rashad Hussain.

Securitizing Migration

For those interested in the various aspects of migration - economic, social and security mostly - they could consider listening to this podcast, by the deputy director of the Geneva Center for Security Policy, via the International Relations and Security Network.

Women in Tunisia are fighting for their rights

Shortly after they won the right to protest following the January 2011 regime change, the women in Tunisia went back on the streets again, asking for their rights. 

Over 6,000 Tunisian women requested at the beginning of the week against the predicted restrictions against women's rights that might be introduced into the new Constitution, under the influence of the politicians close to Salafi Muslims. 

Let's hope that the proud women in Tunisia will be able to continue enjoying the right to ask for their rights and will not give up the obvious pressures that the Islamist forces are ready to exert against them.

Stratfor: 'The Israeli Crisis'

The Israeli Crisis is the name of the latest analysis of Stratfor. 

The evaluation of the threats faced by Israel is interesting, but this was always the situation from the beginning of the history of the state of Israel. What I consider it is stereotypical and repeated ad nauseam without understanding the real challenges is the following fragment of sentence: 'Israel's national security - particularly if its strategic environment deteriorates - rests on the US'. The international community should realize that the security and existence of the state of Israel is not a matter of special relationship between Washington and Jerusalem (the capital city of the state of Israel, fyi), but a consideration of life and death of democracy. It is not a gamble under the table in order to do not harm the new and old Arab friends from the Middle East, but it is a test of democracy and credibility of the European institutions. The advantage of the chaotic and inarticulated policies of Obama administration in the Middle East was that it left a lot of place for the Israeli diplomacy to state its interests which are not in contradiction with the overall interests of the democractic community.

The comparison between the state of Israel and the French Third Republic would deserve, maybe, a better explanation beyond stylistic rhetorics. Till then, let's hope that the democracies and the wise people from Bruxelles will realize that the state of Israel should exist and enjoy the autonomy of a free and autonomous state. Otherwise, we may rather speak about the 'democracy crisis'.

New clashes in Yemen

New clashed erupted this Tuesday in Sana'a months between various military groups pro and against the new rule in Yemen. As in the case of Algeria or Egypt, the representatives of the military are part of an elite that sometimes decides the fate of the country and the latest clashes were likely determined by the declared intentions of the new government to go further with reforming the Army.

A reform of the Army, in Yemen and elsewhere - Turkey, for instance -, cannot be done smoothly, as each group has its own interests and political games. Strategically speaking, Yemen is part of the main frontline against Al Qaeda and the counter-terrorism measures and preparations took at the local level continue to be an important part of Western interest in the area. 

As in the case of many other countries affected by the 'spring' it is difficult to make predictions about what the future will bring for Yemen: to the serious economic problems or the water crisis, there are several separatist worries and the structural need to cope with corruption and organized crime - looting state institution is part of the daily normality in Sana'a and elsewhere. 

Many people are poor and hopeless while the smart and young intellectuals prefer to apply for scholarships in the US. Safety is important but in order to achieve it you should be done more for setting up the new institutions. A new Iraq within Yemen? Hard to say it clearly now.

Russia and Internet freedom

I spotted a couple of days ago in Der Spiegel an interesting analysis about why Internet is considered dangerous in Russia and how its effects are countred through various official policies.

The debacle in Greece, a new episode?

The economic and social situation in Greece seems to continue the dangerous turn, as the EU leaders - mainly Germany - are not satisfied with the turn over of the reforms. The most dangerous though in this context is the resurgence of the far right and the increased hate against foreigners. Following an ambiance already heated by the presence of the far-right into the Parliament, the home affairs officials decided a couple of days ago to detain around 6,000 persons, out of them 1,600 will be deported soon, because considered illegal immigrants. On Sunday, supporters of the far-right attacked a car with a Pakistani man accused of murder. 

We should not ask ourselves what could be next. Take your time and look in the history books.

South Korea-Japan, the new episode of the old story

An interesting evaluation of the latest evolutions in the South Korea-Japan bilateral relations, by the International Security Network. 

Is Angola ready for the elections?

On August 31, Angola will organize parliamentary elections, for the first time since the end of the civil war. For 27 years after Angola became independent from Portugal, the country was revaged by a civil war that made over 300,000 victims. 

The current president, Jose Eduardo dos Santos is in power for 33 years and the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) - which is expected to win again - is in power since 1975. During the Cold War, MPLA benefited from the support of Cuba and the Soviet Union. The main opposition is represented by the Union for the Total Liberation of Angola (UNITA) which includes former Army rebels and which is very active in the oil-rich enclave of Cabinda. Cabinda is an important source of oil for the US and China. Angola is rich in other natural resources, as gold, uranium, diamonds and gas.

In 2001, a young movement was created following the model of the 'Arab spring', but the organizers are usually harassed by the police and the representatives of the security forces - and the so-called 'caenches', muscle men. A new Constitution was adopted in 2010, but the level of application depends at a great extent by the good will of the Santos regime. 

According to a recent report by Human Rights Watch, there are a couple of problems that the authorities in Luanda should consider seriously in order to guarantee a free and fair choice. 

The main observations of HRW are:

- the need to limit the political and security forces involvement in harassing media and the political oppositions;

- the need to clarify the situation of organizers of anti-governmental protests that disappeared since March;

- the National Election Commission should guarantee the impartiality of the electoral process.

Even though the results of the elections are predictable, the content of change depends at a great extent of the change taking place till the next elections is hard to predict. 

Cleaning the traces of the Vietnam War

37 years after the end of the Vietnam War, the Agent Orange continue to produce effects in Vietnam. The issue is part of the bilateral dialogue between Hanoi and Washington and recently US announced that it will get involved in cleaning the contaminated areas.

Wars are a never ending story, in fact, and more important that who the winner is, is the way in which the post-war collaboration develops.

Foreign Policy lectures: Cicero

When you are in Germany, read what Germans read. And this sentence could be repeated for various countries that I am visiting all round the year. As long as I know the local language, it is important to get connected through the local political culture. And apparently, I cannot live too much without knowing what is going on in the cultural life. 

As for Germany, for a long time I used to read regularly FAZ and Der Spiegel. Most of the news I hear from radio or, when necessary, I have the Google alerts that offer a basis for further documentation. In the last months, I started to read also Cicero, the "Magazine for Political Culture".

It was created in 2004 as part of Ringier Group and with the aim to be the German variant of The New Yorker or the Atlantic Monthly. Together with the advertising and arts publication Monopol, it is part of the serious porfolio of Ringier. I do not have yet the explanation of the choice of the name Cicero for the publication.

It counted as contributors various local politicians or literary stars - as Wladimir Kaminer or Martin Walser - but also Madeleine Albright and Umberto Eco. Initially planned for 15 pages, it reached around  40 in the first issues, and over 100 nowadays. The design is friendly and you can find almost everything you need for a lazy monthly lecture. If you are a foreigner and you are curious about what is going on in the German political life, buy Cicero and your image will be less blurred. 

A big part of the publication is focused on various local issues, including, in the July issue, the Schlecker case, but during time it also addressed various controversial issues. In 2005, the publication was the subject of a state investigation after it published secret documents about the terrorist of Jordanian origin al-Zarqawi. 

Most German media - of Western origin - was created in the 1970s, but Cicero succeeded at a certain extent to win permanently new readers. Within the first 2 years, it suceeded to reach a 50,000 copies and nowadays it sells around 83,000. 

Militancy in Central Asia: More Than Religious Extremism

The latest Stratfor analysis: Militancy in Central Asia: More Than Religious Extremism

EU and Syria

I continue to keep my strong opinion that in the case of Syria, EU was completely out of sight. It could be because EU doesn't matter too much in the area, but also because it did not find any convincing and reliable way to support its opinions. When you do not have any influence and credibility in time of peace, do not expect to find one out of the box during the war. And, as many from the EU are well aware, Syria is in war for more than 12 months.

When it comes to the coercition measures, EU restricted the freedom of movement of top Syrian officials and forbade the exportation of luxury goods to Syria. Also, top EU ladies aired a video appeal to Assad's elegant wife to convince his husband to give up the slaughtering of his own people. 

Today, the European Council decided to impose the right to local authorities the right to inspect vessels and aircrafts bound for Syria, in search of weapons. The Brussels authorities expressed their concern regarding the situation of Syrian refugees, some of them recently returned back from Lebanon. 

Maybe once the war will be over, EU should reconsider its role and strategy regarding not only Syria, but the Middle East in general, and end up by focusing obsessively only on one issue managed disastrously partly for leftist bias, partly for complete lack of sensibility for the subject.