Foreign Policy Focus: Japan

Based on what appears to be a successful test of an atomic bomb more powerful than the one North Korea detonated in 2006, former U.S. government and independent analysts say the North's technical skills are improving slightly.

Of greater concern, according to national security adviser James L. Jones, is the possibility that North Korea could sell or share its nuclear technology with others. He would not say whether the U.S. intelligence community judged the test to be a significant step forward.

"The fact that they have this kind of technology and are obviously willing to export it is very troubling," Jones told reporters Tuesday.

The U.S. government remains officially mum on technical details about the underground blast that took place Monday in North Korea. It could be days or weeks before radioactive gases from the underground test are detected and analyzed by U.S. and allied intelligence.

North Korea appears to be marginally closer to having both a nuclear warhead and the means of delivering it to the United States or U.S. allies in the Pacific. In April, Pyongyang launched a long-range missile in what represented a modest improvement over earlier missile tests. The government reported launching a series of short-range missiles on Tuesday.

The nuclear test proves that North Korea's basic warhead design works, said Charles Vick, a missile expert with Global Security.org. The next challenge is reducing its weight by about half, and then integrating the warhead onto a missile.

North Korea has said it has begun harvesting plutonium from spent fuel rods at its main nuclear plant to build up its atomic arsenal. It is thought to have enough weaponized plutonium to make more than a half-dozen atomic bombs.

In its official announcement of the test, North Korea said the explosion was larger than its 2006 test. Publicly available information supports that.

The U.S. Geological Survey recorded a seismic event — equivalent to an earthquake with a roughly 4.6 on the Richter scale — near the test site. The 2006 test registered roughly 4.1, according to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization, an arms control group.

Martin Kalinowski, a Hamburg University professor, says that corresponds to an explosive yield of about 3 to 8 kilotons of TNT, with a yield most likely of 4 kilotons.

That would be considerably higher than the half-kiloton yield in 2006. One kiloton is the equivalent of exploding 1,000 tons of TNT. For comparison, the U.S. nuclear bombs detonated in Japan during World War II ranged between 15 to 21 kilotons.

Jeffrey Lewis, director of nuclear strategy initiative at the New America Foundation, a think tank in Washington, cautioned that "it's really hard to know what the yield actually is." He said it might be as low as 1.5 kilotons.

Lewis described the range as "somewhere between what you wouldn't want dropped on your neighborhood, but it's nowhere near what was dropped on Hiroshima."

Discussions about yield and capability are somewhat beside the point, he added. The fact that North Korea has a weapon, and its intentions for it are unclear, are the true concerns.

"What's frightening is that they have a nuclear weapon, the uncertainty that comes from having a nuclear weapon, not the capability itself," said Lewis.

North Korea's nuclear test forced the Pentagon to scrap much of its planning for a meeting Saturday in Singapore among Defense Secretary Robert Gates and his Japanese and South Korean counterparts.

"Undoubtedly, the developments in North Korea over the weekend will be a focus of that conversation," Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell told reporters. He said it was believed to be the first discussion among the three nations' defense chiefs.

Associated Press writers Robert Burns and Lara Jakes contributed to this report.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Japan prepares crisis steps for NKorea missile

The Associated Press, International Herald Tribune

March 26

TOKYO: Cities on the northern Japanese coast are setting up hot lines and emergency headquarters and conducting safety drills to prepare for possible falling debris from North Korea's planned rocket launch, officials said Thursday.

North Korea has said it will launch a communications satellite between April 4-8, and has designated waters off northern Japan as a risk zone for falling fragments.

Japan and its allies have said the launch is intended to also test long-range ballistic missile technology. The government is readying an order to deploy a missile shield, including interceptors, to protect against debris that might fall short and hit Japan. The order is expected Friday.

"We are preparing to do everything we can to protect the safety and lives of the people," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura.

Japan is also set to shift some of the batteries of PAC-3 land-to-air missiles, now in around Tokyo, to the north coast and send a pair of destroyers carrying missile interceptors to nearby waters.

In the meantime, locals are getting ready.

Pyongyang has designated the waters off northern Akita and Iwate prefectures (states) as a risk zone for falling fragments, and officials in Iwate have set up hot lines connecting town offices and increased overnight staffing before and during the scheduled launch dates.

They have also reviewed contingency measures to deal with possible damage.

Some said there was little they could do.

"The problem is that we have no idea if it will hit us or where it will land until it happens," said prefectural disaster management official Shuzo Koshino. "We won't have time for evacuation or to do anything. Where do we evacuate to, anyway? We don't have underground shelters."

Koshino said many people are concerned about safety, as the launch dates overlap with the beginning of the country's school year, when many ceremonies are planned for new students.

"We must be prepared, but we don't want to incite fear among citizens or restrict their activity," he said. "We just have to believe that the chance of being hit by missile debris is smaller than getting hit by a car. Otherwise, you can't leave your house."

In Tottori on Japan's northwestern coast, officials held an emergency drill Wednesday.

Japan has also warned of additional sanctions against North Korea if the country went ahead with a launch, and the Japanese parliament is set to issue a statement Friday urging the North to scrap the launch, which Japan says violates a U.N. Security Council resolution barring North Korea from any ballistic missile development activity.

Japan imposed tight trade sanctions against Pyongyang in 2006 after it tested ballistic missiles in waters between the two countries and conducted an atomic test. Japan's current sanctions, which have been extended every six months, are set to expire April 13.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

8.000 Marines relocate from Okinawa

to Guam.

There are currently about 13,000 Marines stationed on Okinawa, and 23,000 U.S. troops there overall. They are part of about 50,000 U.S. troops deployed in Japan under a post-World War II mutual security pact.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

The economic crisis - opportunities for cooperation

The current economic crisis is opening the doors for cooperation and dialog, going beyond divisions at the political level. China, Japan and South Korea summit could be an example of how the international agenda will look like in the next year, at least. In the same time, by not discussing the problems with a tensioned potential doesn't mean these problems disappeared or will be solved by themselves.

Joint Statement of the Summit