To strike or not to strike. Iran.

Would this strike of Israel against Iran take place? If yes, why to leak the information to the media?

Peace by the force of the law

Israeli Defense Forces evacuated the Beit HaShalom House from Hebron. It tools one hour and a half, seven people were wounded - according to the police, the settlers are claiming 20; 2.000 people were involved in the action - police and military forces. Youngsters from Kyriat Arba through stones against Palestinian houses or blocked the road, near the Highway 1. IDF declared Hebron and the surrounding zone a military area.
President of the state of Israel, Shimon Peres: "These days especially, it is worth repeating the words of Ben Gurion, who said there is only one state and one law, and the existence of the state necessitates fulfilling its laws. The state must oppose those who break its laws without hesitation."
Tzipi Livni, minister of Foreign Affairs: "We have here a group that does not recognize the authority of the government, the authority of the court, or the authority of the army or police to act. Israel cannot be a state which has areas that are like the Wild West."
The Jewish community in Hebron is having its own interpretation.
The New York based business man Morris Abraham who claims he bought the disputed house for 1 million $, went on Wednesday in Hebron, and is threatening to sue the Israeli government if the settlers are evacuated.
In Hebrew, Beit HaShalom means "House of Peace". The story goes on. And on. And on.

Republic of Moldova and the human rights status

The Council of Europe Anti-Torture Committee published today the reports on the Republic of Moldova: ill-treatments of the police remained of serious proportions; conditions of detention are mostly unsuitable; prison overcrowding is still a problem.

Let's talk about diplomacy

James K. Glassman, US Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy held December 1st a conference at the New America Foundation on diplomacy 2.0. The technology and the new social networks are on the forefront of the new foreign policy conceptions, of course, with the backing of strategy aiming to fulfill objectives of strategic interest.

Words kill: Croatian journalists lives under threat. They are not alone

Words kill. Everywhere, from the very beginning of journalism. The last cases from Croatia - the killing of the owner and one executive of Nacional, the threats against another journalist covering, among others, controversial events from Croatia's recent history - are just an example, from a long list. The Preface of 2008 Reporters sans Frontieres Reports is summing up the whole landscape of the world media nowadays: Between impotence, cowardice and duplicity.

"We don't have any trace that leads to Mladic, unless a miracle happens"

Where is Radko Mladic? The Belgrad authorities are saying they do their best, but a miracle is needed, NATO is trying to find some connections with 13 years haunted fugitive Radovan Karadzic, whose trial is scheduled to start end January 2009, according to officials from the Hague Tribunal. How he was able to hide for such a long time, despite constant and systematic searches all over the Balkans- mainly from the part of NATO? Hiding under new identity and look, Karadzic used to sip regularly his red wine at the Belgrad's pub "Madhouse".

The wars in the Balkans were a profitable business, some of direct beneficiaries being helpful later, in hard times. Zoran Djindjici's killers were former "Red Berets" squad members, reconverted into the mafia businesses of the Zemun gang. And the explanation of the murder is not clear at all.

Obama's diplomatic changes

All the politically appointed US ambassadors were notified that they must vacate their post as of January 20, the first day in office of the new Obama administration. How many people are directly concerned it is not quite clear, media reports suggesting at least the US ambassadors in UK, France and Japan, the last two previously serving in the diplomatic service.

Also, it is not very clear who will replace them and what will be the new diplomatic representation strategy . The same for the financial and strategic perspective on national security issues, including regarding the US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Condoleezza Rice is on a farewell tour, and by now it is not certain how her professional future will look like.

Among the first diplomatic appointees, Susan E. Rice was nominated for the position of UN Ambassador, a high-profile position, held previously also by a former secretary of state, Madeleine K. Albright.

Pew Research Center: India, Global Optimism, Local Fears

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1046/india-terrorist-attacks

What future for EU enlargements?

The EU Commission proposed on Wednesday an Eastern Partnership with six former soviet countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus. The initiative as such would be launch in the first half of 2009, during the EU Czech presidency. The Partnership is likely to intensify the dialogue between EU and those countries on targeted domains, as social and economic development and better governance.

Each of these countries are facing serious system problems: Armenia and Azerbaijan are facing a long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh; Georgia is having extremely tense relations with Russia - culminating this August with an armed conflict with the trouble situation from Ossetia; Ukraine is facing a permanent political instability; Moldova is catched between a dangerous delay of solving the Transdniestr issue and a deep economic and political crisis, with a communist regime at Chisinau; Belarus is a non-democratic under the rule of Lukashenko. Even, at least in the case of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, a strong wish to became EU full members was expressed, it is doubtful these countries will be able to solve in a near future the huge system problems they are facing.

The EU Neighbourhood Policy is another useful tool, in EU's opinion, in order to establish a certain permanent, institutional relations with countries of interest for the European Union, but it cannot be considered a clear guarantee of the membership for the countries included - quite diverse, from Israel, North African countries or former Soviet countries. Ukraine already expressed its reluctance against being included in the ENP, as a way to keep Kiev indefinitely on the waiting line.

For the moment, EU is trying to find ways for speeding the reforms in Western Balkans and Turkey, countries included in the institutional mechanism for the accession. But, even in this case, a final date is not set as long as each of these countries are facing serious delays in meeting the EU accession criteria. In fact, the EU is working on many files in the same time in a very changing environment - the global crisis, the security threats, the energy issue, the enlargement, the relations with its neighbours, the Irish "no" vote for the Lisbon Treaty, the delay in the unification process in Cyprus - theoretically interconnected, but very difficult, by now, to be put in a coherent narrative.

Lessons learned?

Since 9/11 are they any lessons learned, useful in order to prevent similar attacks? Anne Applebaum is asking a couple of interesting questions regarding the overall level of efficiency in the fight against terrorism, in the light of the last terrorist attacks in Mumbai. When, again, everything occurred (again) out of any intelligence prediction.

Mumbai: The Hunt

The bloodshed in Mumbai is over, with 124 people killed and 284 wounded. The responsibility was claimed by a group called Decan Mujahideen.
The police is looking also after a possible mastermind of the attack, Abdul Subhan Qureshi, suspected of other terrorist attacks on India's soil.

Belarus: looking West for a "Chinese solution"? Democracy tests (1)

The latest evaluation report on Belarus was published by the Jameston Foundation. Shortly: the chances to topple Lukashenko soon are quite slim - he's still enjoying the support of the population - question 1: how accurate could be such evaluation, in a country where being against the regime is endangering the individual freedom ? - and of an emergent third class. The West opened again - question 2: does it sounds like: "I punished you because you haven't been polite, but now I decided to finish the punishment, because you haven't become more polite by that"? - even cautiously, while Lukashenko is hoping in a Chinese solution to his problems - centralized government, but in a focus for profit economic environment.

The opposition in Belarus is extremely diverse and weak, in a country at the mercy of Russia's changing mood. Only during the shorts laps of time when they are tensions between Minsk and Moscow, the Belarusian leaders try to look more friendly to the generically West.

In fact, the minimum sources required for having at least an approximate realistic idea of how the country is really looking are quite scattered and often contradictory. The academic researches are quite a few (David Marples' A Denationalized Nation is a good reference for the process of identity building, as Elena Korosteleva's Postcommunist Belarus, are valuable for the analysis of the authoritarian model and the wavering relations between Russia and the West). The scarcity of academic resources could be interpreted as well as a certain lack of immediate interest of European and American universities and think-thanks in covering this part of the world.

For a trustworthy action you have to know what are you talking about and with whom. The opposition is still in Belarus a generically term lacking high profile leaders so, it is problematic if, in the case that a change of leadership will occurs, who will be able to fully assume the main positions in a possible government - foreign affairs, justice, economy, army.

The post-orange revolutions' ambiguities in Ukraine and Georgia could be a reason for a cautious approach of both EU and US in relationship with Belarus. But the neighbouring Russia is another element that most be taken into consideration when thinking about a not too soon foreseeable "new Belarus", limiting considerably the possibility of an open action of state and non-state actors.

EU's Czech presidency, starting January 1 is promising to focus on Belarus too. In the same time, it's impossible to think about wonders in only six months time, and the current economic and financial crisis would continue to top the agenda. And, in fact, what could you offer to Belarus?

The international community is facing a situation typical to the Cold War, which should be addressed differently, but not yet clearly how. The enthusiastic revolutions of the 1989s, the liberation from communism of the "Eastern block" and the reunification of Germany, were followed shortly but difficult stick-and-carrot games and the EU and NATO memberships incentives were the salvation at the end of complicate transitions, schizophrenic positioning to human rights issues and a confusing, far from democratic behavior of a colourful political class. Almost 20 years after, they are not fully functional societies or are facing a serious shortage in terms of political leadership. Plus, in all of the former communist countries was common at a certain degree (including in Eastern Germany, the "Good Bye, Lenin" movie reflecting, in an ironic way this mentality split) the "nostalgia" after a period of a period idyllically considered as secure, at least in economic terms, translated into support for nationalistic, far-right politicians. But still, they are on the good track and their lessons learned are already taught in the Western Balkans, the new team preparing to get the European brand.

But, the choices are limited, as long the EU and NATO themselves are still in the need for a new organisational settlement and the geographical, political and economic resources are quite limited. You could talk about more need for democracy and the basic requirement to offer to your citizens their full enjoyment of human rights, to offer loans and training for democratic leaders and settlement of institutions or fight against corruption. Even to start a war against dictatorships, but the next day after the end of the battle, what you can really do?

We could identify quite easily the bad leaders and the bad political leaders. We cannot have one and only democracy, available anytime and universal; they are universal rights and freedom each democratic system have to enshrine and respect. It's up to the respective leadership of each country to find its own democratic path.

Terror hits India again

At least 101 people were killed and 290 injured in a terrorist attack on two luxury hotels in Mumbai. The coordinated attacks targeted also popular restaurants, a rail terminus and a Jewish Centre. This is the most serious, of a long series of terrorist activities hitting Mumbai and India in the last months.

CNN: Testimonies of witnesses


Key-developments, Hindu Times


BBC: Map of the locations


CSM: Home-grown terrorism in India


Council on Foreign Relations, on India's terrorism


TIME reporting


Twitter discussions


Mumbai profile

Lessons from the Armenian-Turkish dialogue

Today's editorial from the Lebanese Daily Star is quite interesting, drawing a parallel between the possible settlement of the conflict between Turkey and Armenia and the situation from Middle East. In foreign affairs, comparisons could be quite risky. You have to take into account the historical, international, geographical, cultural, internal contexts, tremendously different from a case to another.

But, a similarity, at least from the technical point of view, it is not completely out of sight. The complicate framework of dialogue between Turkey and Armenia was made possible, among others, by constant and stubborn efforts of Track II diplomacy. If Track I is referring to the usual work of the diplomats from the embassies, Track II have to deal with the informal side of the diplomacy, in which non-officials engage in dialogue for confidence building and conflict resolution. It could involve, for example, meetings between journalists, joint contests of children, concerts etc. The main idea is to make possible knowing the other - a conflictual one - through what it is human, natural and easy to understand. From this slowly and timely built, trust- oriented basis you arrive little by little to the institutional and political levels. This quiet basis in itself could exert a noticeable pressure for change on the institutions and political leaders.

As for the Middle East, such an approach is welcomed. But it have to be filled creatively with the proper content, tailored on the measure and scale of the conflict. And maybe wait for another generation.

See more:

Nagorno-Karabakh, history of the conflict

Middle East Institute, Washington DC, links on Lebanon and current evolutions in the Middle East

Track II diplomacy, lessons from the Middle East

Cash moves in financial crisis

Sovereign wealth funds from the Gulf states are focusing their strategies on the regional markets, in order to protect themselves of bigger losses of shares invested in Western companies. UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband, in a speech delivered November 24 in Abu Dhabi, invited UAE to invest in British wealth funds, after the prime-minister Gordon Brown itself made a similar call two weeks ago. Abu Dhabi is home to one of the world's largest sovereign wealth fund.

Barclays Plc. Britain's second-biggest bank would raise 7.3 billion pounds ($11.8 billion) by selling securities to investors including funds in Abu Dhabi and Qatar. Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a member of Abu Dhabi's royal family, will become its biggest shareholder.

Need of an EU common policy on China

China postponed the EU-China summit scheduled for December 1, one of the main reasons being the coming meeting between French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and the Tibetan spiritual leader, Dalai Lama. This meeting will take place in Poland, December 6, France being the president of the six-months EU rotating presidency.

According to Francois Godement, Director of the European Council for Foreign Relations -Asia Centre at SciencesPo in Paris:
"China's decision to cancel its scheduled summit meeting with the EU is a spectacular gesture and an unprecedented step in the bilateral relationship. In blaming Nicolas Sarkozy's upcoming meeting with the Dalai Lama, China takes its policy of routinely cancelling human rights dialogues with European officials to the highest political level. This aggressive move from China's diplomacy has been facilitated by the scurrilous divisions between EU countries themselves. Throughout the year, senior European leaders have scandalously failed to coordinate on the issue of Tibet and the Dalai Lama. The sorry spectacle of European disunity over the financial and economic crisis has confirmed to China's leaders that Europe is not a unitary actor and can be publicly provoked at no significant political cost. It is urgent for Europeans to realise the steep political price for their failure to agree on common principles and practice for their China policy."

Political turmoil in Thailand

The head of Thailand's army urged today the governemnt to dissolve parliament and call new elections, after yesterday anti-governement demonstrators seized Bangkok's international airport. The protesters are campaignig for six months against the government. In answer to the request, they refused to withdraw, and the chaos continue to affects thousands of passengers. The deepening crisis with dramatic effects on the economy is the manifested consequence of a divided society rotten by corruption and conjunctural applications of the law.

Multi polar competition is now open

At the end of the last week, National Intelligence Council released its 2025 Forecast of the Global Trends.
The reports, drafted with the participation of non-American specialists, are documenting the emergence, in the next 20 years, of a multi polar system, with an increased dispersion of power. US will remain the sole superpower, but in decrease, with an emergence of a clearer influence of India and China, as well as of non-state actors. Another “relatively certain” trend is a possible increase of the attraction for the Chinese model. As an “uncertain” evaluation, China could have more impact on the world the next 20 country than any other country (the world’s second’s economy, a leading military power, the largest importer of natural resources, the biggest polluter). China and Russia progresses towards democracy are equally included in the same “uncertain” categories.

February this year, NIC published Global Scenarios for 2025.

“Freedom is indivisible, and when one man is enslaved, all are not free”

One of the most charismatic US presidents, John F. Kennedy was assassinated 45 years ago, in circumstances still matter of public controversy. June 23, 1963, in Berlin, JFK delivered one of the most quoted speeches during the Cold War, in the front of almost one million people.
Historically, his speech was a very important expression of support of the US for the free world, but a promise impossible to be kept for those on the other side of the Curtain. Only 24 years after, another American president, Ronald Reagan, asked on Mikhail Gorbachev to tear down the wall.

See more:

17 November TIME 2003 issue is offering an extended texts and photographic coverage of his presidency.
http://www.time.com/time/2003/jfk/

Public diplomacy, on Twitter

Almost one year ago, US diplomats started to present their views on current foreign affairs activities on the blogs hosted by US State Department. It is not about revealing secrets, but presenting and discussing for and with the readers daily issues facing the diplomacy in the making. Recently, the 2.0. activities received on-line dimensions, after Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy Colleen Graffy get in touch with his followers on Twitter, about recent meeting in Romania and the Republic of Moldova.
One of the most active diplomatic presences on 2.0. space is the UK Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, who’s frequently posting on youtube personal accounts of the places he’s visiting as well as of the public statements and conferences, available in this way to quite a wider audience.These kind of openings of diplomacy aren't diminishing at all overall substance of the diplomatic exercise and, for sure, is not available for all the domains covered- as the treaty negotiations, for example. It is not necessarily about democratization of foreign affairs, but about a focus on a more explanatory dimension. Plus, it could offer a source of instant information for journalists, as well as an alternative source of information, as a possible countering to what it was called in the latest years "CNN diplomacy".