Sunday, December 19, 2010

Weekly Analysis: Bekaa Valley: The dangerous no man’s land















A small region might change the configuration of a whole region. It may fuel a conflict or change the local and regional balance. For today, we'll focus on one of the most dynamic and impredictable - in both bad and good sense - area from the Middle East: Bekaa Valley.

Geography
Beqaa (Arabic: البقاع, "valley"; Lebanese: [bʔaːʕ]; also transliterated as Bekaa, Biqâ‘ or Becaa) is a fertile valley in East Lebanon. For the Romans, it was a major agricultural source, and today it remains Lebanon’s most important farming region.
It is located about 30 km (19 miles) East of Beirut, and situated between the Mount Lebanon to the West and the Anti-Lebanon Mountains to the Wast. It forms the Northeastern most extension of the Great Rift Valley, which stretches from Syria through the Red Sea into Africa. Beqaa Valley is about 120 km (about 75 miles) in length and has an average width of about 16 km (about 10 miles). It has a Mediterranean climate of wet, often snowy winters and dry, warm summers. The region receives limited rainfall, particularly in the north, because Mount Lebanon creates a rain shadow that blocks precipitation coming from the sea.
When the region was part of the Roman Empire, the Beqaa Valley served as a source of grain for the Roman provinces of the Levant. Today the valley makes up 40 percent of Lebanon's arable land. The Northern end of the valley, with its scarce rainfall and less fertile soils, is used primarily as grazing land by pastoral nomads, mostly migrants from the Syrian Desert. Farther south, more fertile soils support crops of wheat, corn, cotton, and vegetables, with vineyards and orchards centered around Zahlé. The valley also produces hashish and cultivates opium poppies, which are exported as part of the illegal drug trade. Since 1957 the Litani hydroelectricity project—a series of canals and a dam located at Lake Qaraoun in the southern end of the valley—has improved irrigation to farms in Beqaa Valley.
The Beqaa Valley is home to Lebanon's famous vineyards and wineries. Wine making is a tradition that goes back 6000 years in Lebanon. With an average altitude of 1.000 m above sea level, the valley's climate is very suitable to vineyards. Abundant winter rain and much sunshine in the summer helps the grapes ripen easily. There are more than a dozen wineries in the Beqaa Valley, producing over six million bottles a year.

The politics, geopolitics and opium

But the economic and geographical advantages are not translated in benefits in the plan of the politics. The place remains a frequent playground for confrontation between clans and various supporters and opposants of the government. Sunni and Shi’a are very often part of an arm conflict. Very often, the clashes are mirroring the confrontations taking place in Beirut.
Drugs have a long tradition in the Bekaa Valley, from the days of the Roman Empire until today cultivators and tribal drug lords working with militias built up a thriving cannabis trade. During the Lebanese civil war, cannabis cultivation was a major source of income in the Bekaa valley, where most of the country's hashish and opium was produced, a multi-billion-dollar industry fueling the agricultural sector as well as political factions and organized crime. The trade collapsed during the worldwide crackdown on narcotics led by the United States in the early 1990s. Under pressure from the U.S. State Department, the occupying Syrian Army plowed up the Bekaa's cannabis fields and sprayed them with poison. Since the mid 1990s, the culture and production of drugs in the Bekaa valley has been in steady decline, by 2002 an estimated 2,500 hectares of cannabis were limited to the extreme north of the valley, where government presence remains minimal. Every year since 2001 the Lebanese army plows cannabis fields in an effort to destroy the crops before harvest, it is estimated that this action eliminates no more than 30% of overall crops. Although important during the civil war, opium cultivation has become marginal, dropping from an estimated 30 metric tonnes per year in 1983 to negligible amounts in 2004.
Due to increasing political unrest that weakened the central Lebanese government during 2006 Lebanon War and 2007 (Opposition boycott of the government) and due to the lack of viable alternatives (U.N. promises of irrigation projects and alternative crop subsidies that never materialised) drug cultivation and production have significantly increased, but remains a fraction of civil war era production and limited north of the Town of Baalbek, where the rule of tribal law protecting armed families is still strong.

Strategy

This region is considered very important for the balance of strategic interest in the region and a test for various military and geopolitical settings. It is still considered as playing an important role in the battle against Hizbullah militias.
From the strategical point of view, the place continue play a significant role in the military and political configuration of the region. In Bekaa Valley took place during the 1982 war an important battle considered an important element in the recent history of the military warfare.
The interest and challenge are determined by the limited if any authority of the central government over this area and the risks of widespreaded instability. For a while, here used to be a PKK training camp, to which Syria contributed largely. It is a no ‘man’s land used for drug trafficking, a source of black money for various terrorist activities.
What future for the region? Both easy and difficult to predict. The hardest way is for the Lebanese people to decide that they don't want to fully use of their present and future and to support political decisions in the advantage of their independence. Nobody else can do this.



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Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Dispatch: Presidential Elections in Belarus | STRATFOR

Dispatch: Presidential Elections in Belarus | STRATFOR

Bosnia, Albania Celebrate EU Visa Lifting

Chess moves in Tehran

President Ahmadinejad at Natanz in April 2008Image via Wikipedia//Ahmadinejad at Natanz, 2008



On 13 December 2010, Ahmadinejad dismisses Manouchehr Mottaki for (yet) unknown reasons and appointed Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Agency, in an acting capacity. Mottaki has been the Foreign Minister of Iran since 24 August 2005. He is the only Minister who was not replaced in Ahmadinejad's Cabinet after Ahmadinejad's reelection. Salehi will be Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs until Ahmadinejad nominates a person to Parliament for this post. No reasons were given for the surprise move, but several Iranian newspapers on Tuesday linked it to disagreements between Ahmadinejad and Mottaki over foreign policy, as it can be a show of power from the part of the president.  
Foreign and defense policy -- particularly relating to Iran's sensitive uranium-enrichment work -- is widely seen as the province of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with the Foreign Ministry playing a secondary role.


Mottaki, a career diplomat and former ambassador to Turkey, was sacked while in Senegal on an official visit. Several conservative papers linked the sacking to a dispute between Mottaki and Ahmadinejad over "parallel diplomacy," which flared up in summer after the president named his close aides as special envoys in the region. Ahmadinejad backed down only after Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei intervened.
"The president put an end to disagreement with the foreign minister," conservative newspaper Qods said, adding that Ahmadinejad's decision on envoys had drawn Mottaki's "harsh reaction." "Earthquake in foreign ministry" was the headline of Khabar newspaper, which is close to Ahmadinejad's rival if not enemy no.1, parliament speaker Ali Larijani. Mottaki was considered a close confidant of Larijani, whose presidential campaign in 2005 he has managed. "Ahmadinejad knows well that Salehi appeals to the West for his moderate views," Khabar said, predicting that the atomic chief will be "one of the managers to form a new circle in the government although he is not ideologically linked with the president." Hossein Shariatmadari, editor in chief of the staunchly conservative Kayhan newspaper and a man personally appointed by Khamenei, condemned Mottaki's firing as an "open insult." Mottaki's departure removes "the last remaining traditional conservative in the cabinet", according to Ebtekar newspaper
Earlier this month, at a security meeting in neighbouring Bahrain, Mottaki hailed as a "step forward" remarks by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Iran is entitled to a peaceful nuclear energy programme but only once it has demonstrated it can carry it out in a responsible manner. His comments appeared to cut across the Islamic republic's official position, repeated almost daily, that its enrichment of uranium is non-negotiable.
There were many media reports outlining that the move might be a public message of the president regarding his support from the Supreme Leader. But it might be in the same time a message sent publicly to the Supreme Leader regarding his support among diplomats, intelligence and his Revolutionary Guards. And the diplomatic service, in every totalitarian state, is one of the most exposed to be infiltrated and used for propagandistic and political aims.

Who is Ali Akbar Salehi

He was born on 7 July 1949 in Karbala, Iraq when his family was in Iraq for a religious visit. He earned a BSc from the American University of Beirut and, in 1977, a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, which he earned in 1977. Salehi is Associate Professor and Chancellor of Sharif University of Technology and a member of the Academy of Sciences of Iran and the International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Italy.
He was Chancellor of Sharif University of Technology from 1982 to 1985 and once again in 1989 to 1993.
Ali Akbar Salehi was appointed as Permanent Representative of Iran to International Atomic Energy Agency by President Mohammad Khatami in 13 March 1997 and was in post until 22 August 2005 for more than eight years He was reappointed in this position by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on 16 July 2009, after a surprise resignation of Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, the father of the nation’s nuclear program. He was close to Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a powerful cleric and former president who is a bitter rival of the president. Aghazadeh was among a group of pro-Rafsanjani officials who formed a political party, Kargozaran, in the early 1990s.
There have also been hints of behind-the-scenes differences between Aghazadeh and Ahmadinejad's energy minister over the planned opening of Iran's first nuclear plan at Bushehr, whose opening has repeatedly been delayed.
On 18 December 2003, under former reformist president Mohammad Khatami, Salehi signed the Additional Protocol to the safeguard agreement, on behalf of Iran that enabled IAEA inspectors to search Iranian nuclear facilities without notice and without restriction. He was replaced by Ali Asghar Soltanieh. He was also Deputy Secretary-General of Organisation of the Islamic Conference under Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu from 2007 to 2009. He resigned in July 2009 when was appointed as Head of AEAI.
"Iran's major international policies are defined in higher levels and the foreign ministry executes these policies. We will not see any changes in our basic policies," foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said at his weekly briefing. "I don't think there will be any changes in the nuclear policy and the talks" with world powers over Iran's nuclear programme, he said.
“Considering your commitment, knowledge, and valued expertise, and in accordance with Article 135 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and based on this decree, you are appointed as acting foreign minister,” read the presidential directive appointing Salehi to the new post.

The next atomic steps

Salehi was replaced as head of Iran's Nuclear Power Plants Production and Development Company by the acting deputy of the country's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Ahmadian. He is university professor and served in different administrative posts, including the position as the country's deputy energy minister Ahmadian was also the Managing Director of Atomic Energy Production and Development Company -- the Iranian contractor for the Bushehr Atomic Power Plant Construction agreement.
Mottaki’s sacking came just days after Iran held crunch talks in Geneva on December 6 and 7 with world powers over its controversial nuclear dossier.
Further talks are scheduled for next month in Iran's neighbour Turkey despite clear differences at the end of Geneva meeting between Iran and the group of P5+1 -- Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.
Salehi introduced the latest progresses in terms of atomic energy in an intervention for Al Jazeera, February 2010 uttering warnings against those who will oppose Iran’s program. As usual, it is difficult to say how is the “moderate” and who is the “hawk”, as the loyalties are wavering and opened to survival repositionings.
The messages sent by know are not very clear and maybe the next weeks will bring more clarity about the current political chessboard in Iran.



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Sunday, December 12, 2010

Book review: Longitudes and attitudes

Thomas Friedman, American journalist, columnis...Image via Wikipedia/Thomas Friedman


At the very beginning of my career in the domain of foreign affairs, reading Thomas Friedman's opinions was part of my daily introductory lessons. The same role was played by his books, From Beirut to Jerusalem or The World is Flat
Beyond the careful explanation of various global and regional contexts and their specific problems, what I was admiring at him was what I called the meaningful way of selecting ideas and the ways in which he was putting into balance various pro and con arguments. Every affirmation was offering the potential for a change of the current situation and aqt the end of his 700-word opinion, I was acquiring a different perception. 
I met again some of those short lessons reading Longitudes and Attitudes. Exploring the World before and after September 11 -  – a collection of articles dedicated to the US security, the Middle East and the American life post 9/11.
But my eyes and understanding are completely different. I continue to read his analysis with a lot of envy for the style and vocabulary, but I feel very often the desire of the journalist aiming to be considered too as a potential power-broker. And very often he, as other media stars from the US are playing this role. The question is what are the consequences of such a shift for the journalism. 
In his case, is the idea of insisting over and over again the same ideas - the main messages from the politicians' discourses - even the situations are changing as well as the actors. Plus, this is the idea of not risking to assume points of view agains the main waves of the opinion. As it is the case for the situation of the settlements in Jerusalem: this is the general trend, to accuse the Israeli governments for this. But, are we talking about the same situation from a year to another? And, in fact, what is the context? The journalism for the masses is tempted to avoid going into too much details, following the pattern familiar to the politicians.
But there are in this book a couple of ideas that deserve to be developed and discussed over and over again: as the fact that September 11 was an attack against the multicultural society of America and not a failure of intelligence but of imagination; the lack of a Manhattan project aimed to destroy terrorism; the lack of any society project from the part of terrorists as Bin Laden; the need for encouraging the discussion within Islam and to create the prospects for a deep reform of some Arab/Muslim states (mostly in the Saudi Arabia); US security dilemmas  after 11/9. In some pieces the world of foreign affairs and security is the pretext for a healthy laugh to tears - as it is the case of the idea of the Naked Air company, whose passengers would fly naked and will not give any chance to religious fundamentalists to put into practice their evil plans (pp. 96-97).
A very interesting information I forgot about was the relative support that US had in some Iranian circles shortly after 11/9 and the missed opportunity of the George W. Bush administration. 
The book it is an interesting diary of the foreign affairs world and a good reference for those aspiring for being good writers in the domain of the international relations. But, beyond your admiration, you have to continue using your brain and to be able to offer your own arguments and points of view.
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A possible explanation of the Latin American moves

from the Jerusalem Post, by Caroline Glick.
The trends were already there, our understanding of the dangers was missing.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Assange arrested in the UK

by the British Police. I deeply hope he will not be turned into a e-Che Guevara.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Latin America? What's going on?

After Brazil and Uruguay, Argentina announced today the recognition of the "Palestinian state". A "state" without institutions, elites and where the elected rulers are Hamas. 
What is the explanation? The post-WWII and post-Cold War headaches ? And, most importantly, will it be other states doing the same - Venezuela, Peru, Colombia? Is this move aimed to press an eventual discussion in the UN and, even more than that? I can understand the move, but the costs will be impressive for the whole region.
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Friday, December 3, 2010

Julian Assange - live @ The Guardian

The most wanted editor of Wikileaks answered live the questions addressed by The Guardian's readers. I am still treating the whole story with the huge benefit of doubt. But will continue the lecture of the Wikis.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Some wikis

Over the afternoon coffee, I spent some time reading a couple of cables from the too much praised Wikis:

The myth of the united Middle East and Mubarak's advice to John Kerry: don't leave Iraq now !
The political negotiations in Tel Aviv, after the elections and the cronic incapacity of the Palestinians to inspire credibility
The nuclear tactics of Iran
Erdogan simply hates Israel
The intricate and personal relationships of the Israeli minister of Foreign Affairs, Avigdor Lieberman and his friends from Moscow
Sending American advices to Hamas via Qatar



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On Wikis

For the moment, a couple of links with the hottest feed-backs and information about the releases:

NYTimes interactive and the explanation

The round-up story
Dealing with gossips - where is the relevance for the public interest?
Are we interested about anything but nothing?
Investigations in Australia
Israel in the cables

I am off for the moment, for reading some Wikis, of course.
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Saturday, November 27, 2010

Short break

For a couple of days I've been a bit focused on other interesting and challenging writing and editing projects. As I have a very personal deadline for finishing my book on diplomacy and 2.0, here will be my favorite playground for the next 30 days. Stay tunned for charming and smart analysis of foreign affairs!
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New WikiLeaks to be released soon!

Logo used by WikileaksImage via Wikipedia

The diplomats all over the world are on high level of alert these days, preparing for the release of 3 million documents of WikiLeaks. For the representatives of the institutions, the revelations will be harmful, with possible consequences, as it happened in the case of Iraq and Afghanistan, on the general security environment in the area. For the "civil society" representatives, it is a fight won in the support of transparency and will offer them the basis for requesting more accountable government.
For the moment, I am waiting to read and analyse myself - if enough time - the documents. I am curious what new information will be revealed, for example, in the case of Libya (most specific, the Lockerbie issue) or what will find out more about the negotiations in the Middle East. And this is a matter of pure curiosity.
As equally pure curiosity is involved when I am thinking about the ways in which (not fully mysterious given the intense information process taking place in the last days between Washington and the capital cities of important allies) those documents reached and continue to reach the open space of the "leaks". I agree that governments should be accountable for their decisions in the front of the public opinion. But, in the same time, I don't think that, if you publish million of documents on the web you contribute to increase the public awareness about a certain situation. Most part of the people will not have time to read them all, and even more will not be able to read them correctly. WikiLeaks is gaining popularity but this is all. From the point of view of the world, not too much.

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Thursday, November 11, 2010

Use and misuse of social media

Free twitter badgeImage via Wikipedia
The use and abuse of Twitter and other social media tools, with some examples from the campaign of the last mid-term elections, in The Atlantic. This article was a good wake-up emergency call reminding me that I am very much beyond my working schedule for my book about politics, diplomacy and 2.0. Shame on me...
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Writing about Tea Party

This is the first comprehensive book about the Tea Party movement, written by somebody involved directly in the whole phenomenon. I registered for receiving a preview, so I am not yet qualified to say more about it. Biased or not, supporters or not of the Tea Party, for somebody interested in the current trends in American politics, we have to read it and be able to analyse it critically.
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Saturday, November 6, 2010

The brother Facebook

Facebook logoImage via Wikipedia
The Islamist alternative to Facebook: Ikhwan Book, the "book" of Muslim Brotherhood, the radical religious opposition banned in Egypt, with the logo "One world unites us". 
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Another sad week for the human rights

MUNICH, GERMANY - OCTOBER 11:  Ai Weiwei, one ...Ai Weiwei - Image by Getty Images via @daylife
Some outlines:
Ai Weiwei, Chinese artist and activist was confined to house arrest in Beijing, preventing him to go to Shanghai, were he expected to take part to an event this Sunday marking the decision of authorities to destroy his art studio. 
The fate of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the woman condemned to stoning in Iran, is still unknown. 
Narsin Sotoudeh, the proeminent Iranian lawyer who defended members of the opposition and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi, is on hunger strike. This September, she was arrested by the Iranian authorities under the accusation of "acting against the national security".
Cuba, Iran and North Korea, honorable members of the UN Human Rights Council, harshly criticized human rights records in the United States. 
It is already enough for one single week.
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Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Focus of the day: Tea Party – What it’s behind a cup of American tea

A Tea Party protest in Hartford, Connecticut, ...Image via Wikipedia

Grass-roots movement or political protest? A historical legacy of the American history reevaluated or successful brand used symbolically to solve political contradiction?


Grass-roots movement or political protest? A historical legacy of the American history reevaluated or successful brand used symbolically to solve political contradiction?

The beginnings

The name "Tea Party" refered to the Boston Tea Party, a direct action started by colonists in Boston from the then British colony of Massachusetts, against the British government. On December 16, 1773, after officials from here refused to return three shiploads of taxed tea to Britain, a group of colonists boarded the ships and destroyed the tea by throwing it into Boston Harbor.

The action was the latest manifestation of a resistance movement throughout British America against the Tea Act, passed by the British Parliament in 1773, considered a violation of the right to be taxed only by the own elected representatives.

The Boston Tea Party was a key event in the growth of the American Revolution, who began near Boston in 1775.

The never ending revolution(s)

The label Tea Party has often been applied to other political protests, with different effects and political agendas. When Mohandas K. Gandhi led a mass burning of Indian registration cards in South Africa in 1908, a British newspaper compared the event to the Boston Tea Party. At the beginning of November 2010, representatives of Israeli Likud created a „tea party“ meeting protesting theagainst the policies of president Barack Obama. In Australia, the T.E.A. Party, self-assessed as a non-political movement, encloses the acronym: “Tax Enough Already”.

American activists from a variety of political viewpoints have invoked the Tea Party as a symbol of protest, but the senses differed of the original understanding. In 1973, on the 200th anniversary of the Tea Party, a mass meeting at Faneuil Hall called for the impeachment of President Richard Nixon and protested oil companies in the ongoing oil crisis. Afterwards, protesters boarded a replica ship in Boston Harbor, hanged Nixon in effigy, and dumped several empty oil drums into the harbor.

In 2006, a libertarian political party called the "Boston Tea Party" was founded, but without a significant further political involvement. In 2007, the Republican Ron Paul held a „Tea Party”on the 234th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party, and raised the record sum of $6.04 million in 24 hours.

In early 2009, a series of citizen gatherings called "Tea Parties" began to protest recent increases in government spending, particularly in President Obama's budget and economic stimulus package.

The new parties

On January 19, 2009, Graham Makohoniuk, a part-time trader and a member of Ticker Forum, posted a casual invitation on the market-ticker.org forums to "Mail a tea bag to congress and to Senate". Forum moderator, Stephanie Jasky helped organize the group and worked to "get it to go viral." Jasky is also the founder and director of FedUpUSA - a fiscally conservative, non-partisan activist group whose members describe themselves as "a group of investors" who sprung out of the market-ticker.org forums and previously held DC protests in 2008.

The founder of market-ticker.org, Karl Denninger (stock trader and former CEO), published his own write-up on the proposed protest, titled "Tea Party February 1st?," which was posted in direct response to President Obama's inauguration occurring on the same day, and railed against the bailouts, the US national debt and "the fraud and abuse in our banking and financial system" which included the predatory lending practices currently at the center of the home mortgage foreclosure crisis. By February 1, the idea had spread among conservative and libertarian-oriented blogs, forums, websites and through a viral email campaign.

On February 11, talk radio host and Fox Business Network anchor Dave Ramsey appeared on Fox and Friends, waving tea bags and saying "It's time for a Tea Party." He was on the show criticizing the newly confirmed Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner, who had outlined his plan to use the $300 billion or so dollars remaining in the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds. He intended to use $50 billion for foreclosure mitigation and use the rest to help fund private investors to buy toxic assets from banks.

New York Times reporter Kate Zernike, reports that some within the Tea Party credit Seattle blogger and conservative activist Keli Carender with organizing the first Tea Party on February 16, 2009. Another article, written by Chris Good of The Atlantic, credits Carender as "one of the first" Tea Party organizers.

The Protests

On February 19, 2009, in a broadcast from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CNBC Business News Network editor Rick Santelli loudly criticized the government plan to refinance mortgages, which had just been announced the day before, as "promoting bad behavior" by "subsidizing losers' mortgages" and raised the possibility of putting together a "Chicago Tea Party in July". A number of the traders and brokers around him cheered on his proposal, to the apparent amusement of the hosts in the studio. It was called "the rant heard round the world". By the next day, guests on Fox News had already begun to mention this new "Tea Party", Fox News, an outpost of support for the Republican Party during Bush administration continuing to devote extensive editorial space to the movement.

In response to Santelli, websites such as ChicagoTeaParty.com, registered in August 2008 by Chicago radio producer Zack Christenson, were live within twelve hours. About 10 hours after Santelli's remarks, reTeaParty.com was bought to coordinate Tea Parties scheduled for July 4, and as of March 4, was reported to be receiving 11,000 visitors a day.

A Facebook page was developed on February 20 the same year calling for Tea Party protests across the country. Group administrators included Eric Odom of the conservative activist group FreedomWorks, and the group was created by Phil Kerpen from the conservative advocacy organization Americans for Prosperity. Soon, the "Nationwide Chicago Tea Party" protest was coordinated across over 40 different cities for February 27, 2009, thus establishing the first national modern Tea Party protest.

Other protests have been held on:

- April 15, 2009 to coincide with the annual U.S. deadline for submitting tax returns, known as Tax Day.

- July 4, 2009 to coincide with Independence Day.

- September 12, 2009 to coincide with the anniversary of the day after the September 11 attacks.

- November 5, 2009 in Washington D.C. to protest the impending Health insurance vote

- March 14–21, 2010 in Washington, D.C. during the final week of debate on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

Reaction to the tea parties included counter-protests expressing support for the Obama administration, and dismissive or mocking media coverage of both the events and its promoters as it was the case with the Rally held October 31, at the National Mall in Washington DC, organized by the media anchor Jon Stewart and comedian Stephen Colbert. This event was organized as a reply to the August 28 rally of the conservative Glenn Beck, held in Washington DC aiming to restore „honor in America” and raise funds for the non-profit Special Operations Warrior Foundation, dedicated to support veterans.

What will be the next party about

The final results of the recent mid-term elections are considered a litmus test of the actions of the tea-party movement by now. Leaders of the movement declared already that their projected midterm election victories should send a strong message: watch out in 2012. "The Republicans need to know, we've done it in 2010. If they don't do the right thing in the next couple of years, it's not a problem. We'll come back in 2012. We'll do it all over again. We'll replace them with people that will uphold [our] principles," said Mark Meckler, co-founder of Tea Party Patriots -- one of the movement's largest groups.

Until the end of the week we will be able to know the overall successes of the Tea Party movement. For me, it is very interesting to observe the passive reaction from the Democratic side, limited rather to humoristic, intellectual appreciations. It might be, perhaps, the confirmation of my old observation, which I have to explain soon in a later post, that the Democrats, when they won the power, were always unable to keep it for too long. On the other hand, I am also curious what changes will be brought in terms of leadership for the Republican side, confronted for the moment with a problematic lack of leadership. We will find, probably, the answer, in the next weeks, after the full evaluation of the elections results.

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Tuesday, November 2, 2010

The New Diplomacy

It is about time for some serious lectures on foreign affairs. For today, I found Robert W. Tucker's, Woodrow Wilson's New Diplomacy, published in 2004 in the World Policy Journal. A detailed account of the beginning of a new era of the American foreign policy, switching from the isolationism and preponderant interests on home affairs to a wider interest in securing a sanitary belt aimed to promote fundamental rights above local interests.

The Twitter map

of the mid-term elections.

Monday, November 1, 2010

America votes

Tuesday, November 2, Americans are asked to vote for 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 37 of the 100 seats in the United States States Senate. At stake there are 38 state and territorial governorships, many state legislatures, four territorial legislatures and numerous state and local races.

The main subjects of interest were the national economic policies and the policies of Obama administration in the area of health care, taxes and deficits.

Here there are a couple of details about the fundraising situation, the media coverage and the main debates by now.

Kurile's heel




What's the interest of Russia to have tensed relations with Japan, following the latest visit of Russian president to the controversial Kurile Islands? Russia never played one single card and the situation from the Asian continent, confronted with uncertain future in the Korean Peninsula, a China ready to conquer the world and the next visit of president Obama in India, an important piece of the puzzle during the Cold War.

Under the threats of terror

The week-end started with the failed terrorist attempt in the US and ended with a suicide attack in Istanbul's populated area of Taksim, wounding 32 persons. The main suspect, the separatist PKK Kurdish party denied any involvement.

In the Yemen case, several investigations are currently under deployment, framing the need of an extensive intelligence share between countries aiming to oppose terrorism, the attack being attributed to Al Qaeda operatives. Al Qaeda suicide bombers carried out a series of attacks in Istanbul in November 2003 that killed 62 people and wounded hundreds. Several Islamist militants were arrested last month. But officials have played down the likelihood of Islamist role.

Turkey is a couple of days ahead the 2010 EU Progress Report and is still trying to find a solution regarding the conflict with Cyprus. The geopolitical ambitions and the temptation to become leader in the Muslim world antagonized the country's foreign relations with former partners in the region. Ankara is showing its full disponibility to enter the EU, pledging Turkey's future role in increasing the potential of the organization.

The new president in Brazil: the challenges

Dilma Roussef, the daughter of a Bulgarian immigrant and a former guerrilla fighter, won the presidential elections in Brazil, a function held by a woman for the first time in the history of this country. A protege of the former president Ignacio Lula da Silva, leader of the Worker's Party, Roussef is trained as an economist and held various position in the local and central government. She is the third woman president in Latin America, after Argentina and Costa Rica, and the ten head of state and government worldwide.

The race was closely watched in Bulgaria, the country of origin of her father that she never visited and whose language don't speak. The complicate geopolitical structure and Brazil's unclear strategy by now are raising several questions regarding the future diplomatic moves of one of the biggest geopolitical players in Latin America. The next steps in foreign policy are yet unknown, and the reactions overseas are confusing for the moment, with different interpretations of the vote, up to the immediate home affairs interests.

Among her priorities, she promised to make gender equality an important project. But, foremost, Roussef is faced with a complicate economic pressure, aiming to offer long-term stability for the market. Former energy minister, she contributed in turning Brazil into an energy giant. But, in the same time, the country is facing severe critics from environmental organizations, criticizing Brazil for the big interest show in developing nuclear capacities.

She will sworn in on January 1st, enough time ahead to start expressing clearer positions in issues regarding home and foreign politics. The discussions for forming the Government are likely to start in the next days.

Saturday, October 30, 2010

The last 23 years of terror

Hamas is receiving a lot of publicity these days. A movement far of being united or acting unitary, given various foreign influences, up to the funding offered, but with a clear focus on terror and intolerance, including against its own Palestinian/Muslim fellows. The opposition to peace process is understandable, as the direct path to their political death. Voices in the Israeli media are pretending that the blockade contributed significantly to the current radicalization and the solution would be to "open" Gaza. Maybe, but what are the risks at stake for the state of Israel, once you don't have the control over the area? A typical Middle Eastern deadlocked situation, when you have to look more broadly and read the smallest details in the overall geopolitical context.

From the journalistic point of view, I have a small observation. Every time there is a conflict where the Israeli Army (IDF) is involved, the foreign media is abounding in critical and moving-to-tears articles about the victims. I didn't see too many - or not at all - critical articles about what this organization represents, about the fact that it is holding hostage since 2006 a soldier, Gilad Shalit, without allowing the international organizations or other third party to offer the normal assistance, about the terrorist threat and the intolerance towards normal standards of human rights. A blindness having its price.

Don't underestimate the terrorism threat

Key evolutions of a warning:

Cargo plane bomb plot: Key developments
The white powder on the toner cartridge in the bomb scare Photo: CBS

Oct 3 - The United States and Britain warned their citizens of an increased risk of terrorist attacks in Europe, with Washington saying al Qaeda might target transport infrastructure. Western intelligence sources said militants in hide-outs in northwest Pakistan had been plotting coordinated attacks on European cities.

Oct 5 - French police arrested 12 people in early morning raids the interior minister said were directly linked to a campaign to counter an elevated terrorism threat in Europe. France was on high alert after seven hostages, including five French citizens, were kidnapped by the North African wing of al Qaeda last month.

Oct 5 - The French government warned citizens travelling to Britain to exercise caution due to a very high risk of terrorist action in the country that could target public transport and tourist sites.

Oct 6 - Suspected al Qaeda militants attacked two Western targets in Yemen, firing a rocket at a senior British diplomat's car and killing a Frenchman at a gas and oil installation.

Oct 17 - French Interior Minister Brice Hortefeux said France had been warned by Saudi Arabia that al Qaeda was targeting Europe and especially France.

Oct 27 - A Virginia man who allegedly believed he was helping al Qaeda plan bombings at Washington area Metrorail stations was arrested, the U.S. Justice Department said.

Oct 28 - Britain's top spy, in the first public speech by a serving UK espionage chief, said terrorists might hit the West again "at huge human cost" but nuclear proliferation by states was a more far-reaching danger.

Oct 29 - Security officials in Britain and Dubai intercepted parcel bombs being sent from Yemen to the United States in a "credible terrorist threat," President Barack Obama said.

The Jewish organizations in the area and from the US are under alert.

Several high level meetings are expecting to be held today, analyzing the impact and the emergency measures to be taken immediately.

Friday, October 29, 2010

What do we talk when we are talking about the Middle East

At the beginning of this week, I had the wonderful occasion to participate to the conference Qantara Conference organized in Berlin, by Deutsche Welle and the German Federal Foreign Office. Under the motto "Troublemaker or facilitator? The role of the media in intercultural dialogue", there were brought together media executives and journalists from the Middle Eastern region or with connections - included family ties - in the area.

It was very interesting to watch the perceptions from both sides of the world. During the Cold War, we had the East versus the West, now the poetry is to use the dichotomy "Middle East versus the West". There are strong connections between the two perceptions, as the Middle East used to be, as Africa, a playground for showing off the geopolitical muscles between US and the Soviet Union.

The general situation of the media in the region is far of being clear: there is no country for free media and the political regimes are imposing their lines without limits - one example is the rule to use anti-Semitic and stereotypical descriptions of the state of Israel. I was familiar with this situation of intensive repression against the critical thinking and serious journalism before attending the conference. But, I was extremely surprised by the position of some journalists originally from the region living in the Western world, as it was the case of Abdelbari Atwan, editor-in-chief of Al Quds Al Arabi (Arab Jerusalem, in English) from London, a town where he lives - as he outlined several times during his interventions - for decades. The cartoon "crisis" was portrayed incessantly as an example of the "hate", "animosity", "misunderstanding" of the Western world towards the cultural sensitivities of the Middle East. But such a presentation in itself is an example of misunderstanding: in the West, media are free and any direct involvement of the state - including by creating codes of conduct against attacking religion, as it was proposed on various occasions during the conference. Hate speech of any kind might be prosecuted - I wondered how nobody asked bluntly about the high volume of anti-Semitism and xenophobia you might read and watch in the Middle Eastern media - but it is very important how and who is setting the terms of the journalistic discourse.

As long as we have to deal with journalists respecting their works and, implicitly, their readers, you don't need laws and censorship. The heritage of the Enlightenment in Western Europe is that the human beings are perfectible through education and culture.

The issues of interest for the journalists from both parts are similar: the social influence of widespread 2.0 world - it was interesting, for example, to discover how in Egypt, the division between Sunni and Shi'a become of public interest following the various debates held on forums, during the war in Iraq, how to educate the public opinion by writing positive news. Each time the discussion was moved at this level, the ethnic and geographic origins don't matter. But, once it was pronounced the word "Palestine" and "Israel", the normality was down. And this is the situation we are facing now.

Case in which, the Western media have to continue to behave professionally, with high concern for check-and-balances, in dealing with the Middle East, including by going through a proper documentation before reporting about the region. There are encouraging examples, as most part of the reports from Spiegel online and Deutsche Welle. But, equally, it is a need for improving connections with the journalists from the region, also by offering them possibilities to understand the critical thinking and the need to separate your inner beliefs from the naked facts. And, talking with people and exchanging ideas is the first step towards a long waited change.

If this conference disappointed me a bit and confirmed my pessimistic prospects for a prosperous, democratic and peaceful Middle East, my optimism was rescued at the end of the week, while watching the interventions at TEDxHolyLand. Palestinian and Israeli women, outperforming in their domains, shared their journeys. When politics are put aside, the future have a sound, other then the sound of the guns. I don't expect too much to be achieved in the area of peace from the part of the politicians, but I truly hope that free minds think alike.