US announced increased sanctions against North Korea. By now, the result of this kind of policies, in terms of efficiency, remains highly unclear - it was the case for Eastern Europe during communism, for Middle Eastern dictatorships or other rogue states. As it is also unclear what chances for a new beginning as long as the idea of a possible leadership is non-existent.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Iron Dome
Israel will launch this November the operation Iron Dome, aiming to intercept short-range missiles launched from Gaza and Lebanon.
What it is going on in Egypt
A couple of links regarding the recent evolutions in Egypt:
As in other non-free country, the information regarding the health of the main leader is a matter of state secret. Mubarak is 81 ys. old and the rumours on his condition are persistent since the beginning of the year.
The issue of succession was raised repeatedly in the last years, in line with the Western opinions regarding more democratic reforms in the country.
In the same time, it is an important issue to be taken into account the reconfiguration of the whole area and the need for the Western leaders, for building new partnerships.
A special report on Egypt - The Economist
What's next?
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Bibi on Air
While in US, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu spent one hour on Larry King live. Relaxed and extremely diplomatic facing a very much inside-the-box Larry King.
Nothing new in terms of foreign policy steps, but a welcomed intervention in the international media, vital given the very bad image of the state of Israel, in the light of the Mavi Marmara incident. But still:
- Outlining the continuity and the very good relations with the US and the coherence of the dialogue behind the close doors, including with the current administration.
- The need to continue the dialogue with Turkey, what have been done already. He mentioned a recent meeting between one of the representatives of the Israeli prime minister and the foreign minister of Turkey, as one of the opportunities seized by Israel "to stop this deterioration". He outlined the new foreign policy ambitions of Ankara, driving the country out of the West. In the same time, we want to outline, Israel itself is changing focusing on a foreign policy built around the idea of relying on itself and not on any foreign forces. Here it is an example in this respect, we will analyse in a next post soon.
- The generous and stereotypical idea of peace: The state of Israel is open, want this peace, but the answers by far from the side of the Palestinians are not answering this need. The freezing was presented as an extraordinary gesture from the part of the state of Israel, not answered accordingly. "We have the courage to have peace" is an understatement, when rockets are fired daily and you have a soldier captive for four years in the hands of Hamas.
- Very ironic - normal Israeli style - when asked about the relation with the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, minimizing her by references to the dialogue he had with her husband.
A very casual encounter, anyway.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Fighting their own demons
Again, a realistic piece of article about the Middle East, from a perspective outlining a dangerously denied side of the story. I am wondering how much ignorance or propagandistic messages - or both - in the sayings of all those who are lecturing about peace, restrain to the use of force, understanding and humanism. States are not intending to do good or wrong, in ethical terms, but to follow their objectives of survival, as much as possible in accordance with the international legislation. In order to have a dialogue, you need two - dia - persons/institutions/entitites respecting each other/recognizing their equal legitimacy to talk. This double life of some representatives of the Palestinians - preaching the victim the day, while sleeping in peace during the night being sure the rockets are continuing to harm people and the territory of Israel - is at least mentally damaging. For sure, it is hypocritical.
I think the syntagm "useful idiots" from Cohen's article, used during the Cold War to describe Soviet sympathizers in Western countries might be used very well for many of the "innocent" peace doves addressing the issues of the Middle East.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Monday, June 21, 2010
The prisons of Iran
The account of the foreign journalist who was imprisoned during the last year's events in Iran.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Inside the Mavi Marmara
The Standard Weekly published a very intersting investigation inside the Islamist organization IHH, who masterminded the Mavi Marmara flotilla plans. Many details about the current political connections from Turkey, in the electoral but as well as geopolitical perspective.
The extensive footage of the interviews is here.
And a couple of information about Neturei Karta.
Was it a "revolution" in Iran? With or without the help of Twitter?
Two recent articles about the effect of Internet networks in the case of the last year events in Iran. For time reasons, I will not enter too much into details, but my opinion is that this kind of mobilization played a limited if not a very limited one.
First of all, it was used both sides: for protesters to get organized and widespread information to the wide world, as for the opressors, who obtained up-to-date details about their plans. When they were in full control, they blocked the access. This type of social networking cannot supply the lack of a real world network. What happened in Iran is a good example. The oppressive regime intervened in force, stopped the disidence and kept the power.
Media is the message and information is power. But the depositaries of power are always real and with full control of institutions, people and resources.
The real revolution is in the people's minds. What will happen next in Iran and when it is a matter of human resources. What should be done, in my opinion is that the West (to be read the democratic countries) are smart enough to identify in due time the right persons able to produce change and to encourage them - by prompt reactions against perpetual human rights violations by the authorities in Tehran.
The articles:
Here there are some observations I made by myself: most part of the coordinators of the current campaigns regarding Iran are based outside the country, by people with low interest to ever return in the country. I could understand very well the reasons, but it is better to know instead of dreaming. Mostly in foreign policy.
It is a more optimistic perspective, which I support in some respects, about the huge potential of change presented by social networks.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
A new power broker in the Middle East?
is this Canada? The current political and geopolitical configuration is so confuse and intricate - and more to follow in the next days, probably - than it is hard to say. What remains to be discussed is the availability and consistence of such friendships.
Flotillas and the war on public opinion
a Stratfor analysis about the situation in the Middle East. I watched carefully the news and footages during the events, as well as the reports from the international media.
There are still many events on the run - including the Arab League meeting from today, with impressive pressures against Egypt to give up being part of the blockade against Hamas.
The distance between the facts and their interpretation is huge. And, from many point of view, the communication plan was a failure. There are military regulations and not all the information could be released instantly to the public. Meanwhile, the volume and frequence of communication from the other side of the story was amazing. Millions of people - including with fake IDs and accounts - were involved with actions of supports all over the web - on Facebook, Twitter, comments to foreign media. In this case, despite the facts, the result is an increased condemnation of the state of Israel. And, in Sderot, the missiles continued.
Was it an intelligence failure or of an evaluation failure? I am asking why the negative perception of Israel in the media, increased significantly in the last years, is not still considered a fact you have to work on. Maybe hasbara should be redesigned according to the realities and not relying on situations no longer available.
Monday, May 31, 2010
Answering or not?
I agree it was a deliberate acte of provocation. But, once they were let in, there were possible repetition of the action and so on and so forth. They acted aiming for exactly the results they were expecting. It is no surprise or wonder. As it is not a wonder that by this, the possibilities for a peace discussion is again very very far away. Otherwise, with peace in the Middle East, dictatorial countries from the Middle East will not have any other arguments to deliver for their lack of coherence and arbitrary.
And, the rules are the rules. In democracy. Not in tribal arrangements.
This idea expressed in Jewlicious reminded me of the movie I saw yesterday night - Checkpoint, by Yoav Shamir. A movie I consider biased and unequal. Many people of Arab origin who wanted to cross, but lacking proper documents, were tempted to bargain with the soldiers, waiting for small / not legal arrangements. With such a behavior you will never be able to get anything but corruption and the lack of any rule of law.
Destination Gaza
Here is the conversation between the "peace" navy and the Israeli authorities. There are procedures already in place - as the aid was usually delivered via Ashdod. Everybody was aware and warned about the situation. The answer: "Destination Gaza".
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Massacre in Lahore
(May 29, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) Eighty persons were killed and over 120 others injured in two acts of terrorism directed against Ahmadi worshippers in two mosques belonging to their community in Lahore on May 28,2010. Among those killed were former sessions judge Ameer Ahmad Sheikh, the Amir of the Ahmadia community in Lahore Ejazul Haq, and Major General (retd) Nasir Ahmad.
Though the Ahmadis had been subjected in the past to persecution and atrocities by the Sunni extremists, these were the most brutal acts of terrorism directed against them since Pakistan was born in 1947. There had been worse acts of terrorism directed against the Shias, who are in a much larger number and much more influential politically and economically in the Pakistani society, but the Ahmadis, who are a marginalized community with no political or economic power, had been spared such acts of terrorism till now.
The two commando-style terrorist attacks were staged at the time of Friday prayers in the two Ahmadi mosques located in the Garhi Shahu and Model Town areas of Lahore. Since the Ahmadis are treated as non-Muslims in Pakistan because they do not recognize Prophet Mohammad as the only Prophet of Islam, their places of worship are not recognized as mosques.
These attacks have, therefore, been described by the Pakistani officials and media as attacks on places of worship and not mosques. The Ahmadis, who regard themselves as Muslims despite their reverence for the founder of their community as another Prophet, look upon their places of worship as mosques no different from other mosques. Thus, the two incidents were two more instances of brutal attacks by Sunni extremists on another group of Muslims worshipping in mosques. However, in Pakistan, to describe the Ahmadis as Muslims and their places of worship as mosques would be considered blasphemous. There are five million Ahmadis in Pakistan’s total population of about 180 million.
Seven heavily armed terrorists throwing hand-grenades into the packed gathering of worshippers and opening fire with assault rifles forced their way into the Garhi Shahu mosque. Two terrorists raided the Model Town mosque. While the worshippers in the Model Town mosque beat back the raiding terrorists before the police intervened, the worshippers in the Garhi Shahu mosque were kept hostage for nearly three hours by the terrorists before they were rescued by the security forces.
The security forces are reported to have captured two of the nine terrorists involved in the two attacks. Three allegedly blew themselves up and the remaining four were killed in the exchange of fire. According to the “Daily Times” of Lahore, the attackers also fired shots and hurled a hand grenade at a nearby mosque of Ahl-e-Hadees, adjacent to the City Law College.
A TV channel quoted the Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah as saying that one of the captured terrorists belonged to Rahim Yar Khan district and used to be a student of a madrassa in Karachi and that the other terrorist captured is a Pashtun.
On March 8, a suicide bomber had rammed his car packed with explosives into a Federal Investigation Agency building in Lahore, killing 11 people. On March 12, two suicide bombers had attacked Pakistani Army vehicles in a military cantonment in the city, killing more than 50 people. There were no major terrorist incidents in Lahore in April.
A statement disseminated from London through the Internet on behalf of the international Ahmadiya community said: “The attacks are the culmination of years of un-policed persecution of the Ahmadiya Muslim Jamaat, which is a minority sect in Pakistan. In 1974 legislation was passed that declared Ahmadis to be ‘non-Muslim’ and in 1984 further legislation was passed in which the practice of the faith was outlawed. At regular intervals since then Ahmadis have been attacked but today’s attack is the most cruel and barbaric. All Ahmadis, who are based in 195 countries, are peace loving and tolerant people and yet they are continually targeted by extremist factions. During his Friday Sermon at 1pm today (May 28) the Head of the Ahmadiya Muslim Jamaat, His Holiness Hadhrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad, said: “Today two of our mosques in Lahore were attacked by extremists. At the moment we do not have full details of what has happened. It is clear though that a number of our Ahmadis have been killed and many others have been injured. These people had merely come to the mosques to offer their Friday prayers and yet became victims of a heinous terrorist attack. May God grant patience to the bereaved and elevate the status of those who have been martyred.”
A report disseminated from Lahore by the Associated Press said: “Ahmadis are reviled as heretics by mainstream Muslims for their belief that their sect’s founder was a savior foretold by the Quran, Islam’s holy book. The group has experienced years of state-sanctioned discrimination and occasional attacks by radical Sunni Muslims in Pakistan, but never before in such a large and coordinated fashion.” The AP report further said that before the attacks the suspect from Rahim Yar Khan had stayed at a center belonging to the Tableeghi Jamaat.
Geo TV reported that the Punjab province branch of the Pakistani Taliban had claimed responsibility, but the authenticity of the claim is yet to be established.
On April 17, 2010, “Dawn” of Karachi had reported an increase in kidnappings for ransom and murderous attacks on members of the Ahmadiya community in the industrial town of Faislabad in the Punjab. A member of the local Ahmadiya community had alleged that the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD) headed by Prof.Hafiz Mohammad Sayeed, which is the political wing of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), was responsible for these incidents and that the local police were not taking action against those involved. Faislabad is a stronghjold of the LET. Abu Zubaidah of Al Qaeda, now held in the Guantanamo Bay detention centre, was captured in 2002 from the house of an LET activist in Faislabad. The Ahmadis have been alleging that the JUD and some members of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) of Mr.Nawaz Sharif, former Prime Minister, have been acting in tandem in attacking the members of the community in Punjab. In this connection, they have named Syed Saqlain Shah, a member of the National Assembly, his uncle Syed Iqbal Shah, a former member of the Punjab Provincial Assembly, and Makhdoom Javed Hashmi, senior Vice-President of PML (N).
The LET, which is close to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), never indulges in acts of terrorism in Pakistani territory. It is doubtful whether it would have carried out the terrorist attacks on the Ahmadis despite its past acts of atrocities and intimidation against them. A strong suspect is the Sunni extremist Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), which has been involved in acts of terrorism in Pakistani territory for many years. Like the LET, it too is close to Al Qaeda and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.
Two other suspects are the Jaish-e-Mohammad, whose leader Maulana Masood Azhar, had served for some years in the LEJ, and an organization mysteriously calling itself the Asian Tigers with no allusions to Islam or the Holy Koran, which looks upon the Ahmadis as American agents. The Asian Tigers were allegedly responsible for the recent kidnapping and execution of Sq.Leader Khalid Khawaja, a retired officer of the Pakistan Air Force, who had served for some years in the ISI. After his retirement, he used to hobnob with a number of jihadi terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda, the TTP, the JEM, the LET and the LEJ, and had come under suspicion in connection with the kidnapping and murder of Daniel Pearl, the US journalist in the beginning of 2002. The Asian Tigers had accused him of being an agent of the US and the Ahmadis. Not much is known about its origin and background. It is possible that the LET or Ilyas Kashmiri’s 313 Brigade also operate under the name Asian Tigers in order to avoid attracting the suspicion of the ISI and the US.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com
Israel MFA Legal Expert on Gaza
It is a regular procedure and there are rules to be respected. "Gaza is no more under Israeli control" - so, what do they want to "free"? But, it is a state of conflict and attacks against civilians. Blockade is a legitimate tool used in the international law. Under international humanitarian law, Israel is having the obligation to supply the humanitarian good and medicine.
The warning was made at the beginning of the last week.
Israeli Forces Attack Aid Flotilla, 10 Killed
Forces board Gaza-bound ship from helicopter
Photo: AP
Palestinian fishermen prepare their boat ahead of the expected arrival of a flotilla of hundreds of pro-Palestinian activists trying to sail into the Gaza Strip, in Gaza city, 28 May 2010
Organizers from the Free Gaza Movement and a Turkish human rights group say the convoy, which includes three cargo ships and three passenger boats, is carrying medical supplies as well as cement and other building materials, which Israel has banned from entering Gaza due to security concerns.Israeli media say Israel's navy has attacked a six-ship aid convoy carrying pro-Palestinian activists to the Gaza Strip, killing at least 10 people.
A private Israeli television station said Israeli forces intercepted the flotilla early Monday and fired on at least one of the vessels.
Turkey's NTV television aired images from the ships of several people who were said to be wounded.
Israel has warned it will not allow the flotilla to reach Gaza, which has been under a blockade by Israel and Egypt since 2007 when Palestinian militant group Hamas seized control of the territory.
Three Israeli missile boats left their base in Haifa late Sunday to prevent the ships from entering the 32-kilometer exclusion zone Israel enforces along Gaza's Mediterranean Sea coast.
The aid ships, carrying more than 600 pro-Palestinian activists and 10,000 tons of supplies, left for Gaza on Sunday and defied a radio warning from the Israeli navy not to approach the region. An Israeli official said the navy told them they were approaching a blockaded area and asked them to go to the Israeli port of Ashdod or turn back.
The activists say the construction supplies are intended to help Gazans rebuild homes destroyed during Israel's military offensive in the Islamist-controlled territory early last year.
U.N. officials and international aid groups say Israel's three-year blockade on Gaza has devastated the local economy and failed to weaken Hamas grip on power.
Some information for this report provided by AP, AFP and Reuters.
For the moment, only the news. And a very short comment:
Israel is a sovereign country. Entering its space when the permission denied is provocation. Will it change somehow the situation from the area, eventually leading to the end of the blockade?
A simple question: What Turkey will do if a Kurdish illegal party will win - democratically - the elections?
Al-Akhbar: Syria Will Not Deny Arms to Hizbullah
The Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, which is close to Hizbullah, stated that "Syria has not closed and will not close any arsenal" to this organization. It also estimated that Hizbullah is interested in missiles that are short-range and easy to use (unlike the Scud missile), such as upgraded Grad missiles. Citing sources close to the organization, the daily added that, in the case of a war against Lebanon, Syria would be more than just a rear base for Hizbullah.
Source: Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), May 28, 2010, via
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