Only a single European gas market could counter the use and misuse by Russia of the "Gazprom diplomacy", according to the most recent report of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Russia, outlines Pierre Noel, the author of the analysis, is using gas to divide and weaken Europe politically. Former communist and soviet countries, now EU members, are pledging for a more political approach of the relationship with Russia, considering this relationship with Russia is increasing their insecurity. Germany and Italy are sharing more of the half of the all Russian gas consumed in the EU. France is on the third place, but less than half of the Italian total and only a quarter of the German.
In fact, Russia does not have a monopolistic stranglehold over Europe. Its share of EU gas imports has roughly been halved since 1980, from 80% to 42%. Russian gas represents only 6.5% of the EU's primary energy supply, essentially unchanged in twenty years. And dependence is unlikely to start growing soon as Gazprom is not in a position to increase its exports to Europe significantly. By the contrary, even it is controlling the world's largest reserves, it will be difficult to maintain its current supply levels and in the next 15-20 years would face serious problems of supply.
In order to became effective, an integrated European gas market need the full support from the part of Germany and France. It could as well create a broader basis for an united EU foreign policy towards Russia. Among other things, EU should get involved more seriously in assessing the gas security situation in Central and Eastern European countries and offer accordingly support in developing national actions plans for gas security.
The report is released few days before the release of the EU Strategy Energy Review and the start of the Czech Presidency of the EU, having as one of the main objectives the work on energy security and the next EU-Russia Summit.
Link to the full report:
Pierre Noel can be reached for comment at pierre.noel@ecfr.eu, or 0044 7506 568 705
See also:
The Energy Policy for Europe, adopted at the European Council of March 2007 - http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy_policy/doc/01_energy_policy_for_europe_en.pdf
Council Directive 2004/67/EC of 26 April 2004 concerning measures to safeguard security of natural gas supply - http://europa.eu/scadplus/leg/en/lvb/l27047.htm
The Energy Charter Treaty - http://www.encharter.org/
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