Foreign Policy Focus

Salman Rushdie on Pakistan's paranoia and inefficiency

2011-05-02T23:28:00.000-07:00

Image via Wikipedia//Salman Rushdie

It's much to be said about the latest events following Osama bin Laden's successful elimination. I followed yesterday the reactions in the Arab world and other details about the operation and I'm not surprised that less then 10 hours after the announcement, the conspiracy theories are mushrooming.

But for a better picture we always need time, so I will focus for the moment upon an interesting article by Salman Rushdie, about the significance of the success of the operation for the US-Pakistan relations. I wonder for how long the US/Allied forces tried to capture the no.1 terrorist and their plans were affected by various operational problems on the ground with the Pakistanis. Anybody wondering about Musharraf's reaction?

The follow-up

2011-05-02T01:36:00.000-07:00

Thanks to the news about the successful operation against Osama bin Laden I'm back in the blogging world (this time for good, and preparing lots of interesting articles - take those introductory remarks as a very promotional teaser)...

After 10 years of searches, researches and millions of volumes of intelligence and military operations, it was about time to have him, but the fact in itself doesn't mean the end of the war or the final breath of terrorism. In my opinion, capturing him and delivering justice would have been a better move. But this, in a fully democratic world. In many respects, such a move would reshape him a "martyr" aura.

I've read a couple of posts about how killing Osama might be the final signal to close down Guantanamo. Are those people ignoring the fact that many Guantanamo inmates returned in their home countries and reintegrated easily into the criminal rings they used to be part of before or were simply included by various terrorist cells? You need to find a legal system able to cope with such cases and to prevent the widespread of terrorism. An utopian project, by now.

Obama's remarks are a tribute to all the efforts done during the last years, started by Bush administration, to put prevent similar terrorist attack to 9/11. Most probably he will use this success for electoral purposes as it used the weapon of criticism against the same Bush administration to win the votes of the Americans disillusioned with the war against terror (a communication failure of Bush administration(. I'm reading on some leftist blogs the fierce accusations against Obama, labeled as 'killer'. Probably their mind is still confused after the May Day demonstrations. This might be another example of the failure of the left after the fall of communism. Maybe they thought for a while that Obama might be their idol.

What happened after Osama's promotion in history is the birth of a world accepting the possibility of such people and their criminal acts: getting used with his figure and his discourses on TV, with daily alers on terrorism, with an impressive number of successful or unsuccessful terrorist acts and attempts. In fact, his appearance in the daily media and in our daily lives - via TV or Internet, tools that Al Qaeda is using successfully - was well prepared by the wave of terrorism from the 1970s. TV and Internet lately widespread and amplified the effect of terrorism. Both disgust and sympathy - the percentages aren't clear - were outlined. If we look back in history, we should realize that people like Gaddafi, for example, who openly supported terrorism, were in the media long time before we were acknowledged about the existence of this Osama. One month ago, NATO started a series of strikes in Libya, after Gaddafi's bloody attempts to shut down the protests of opposition. The future of Gaddafi and Libya's future as such are still unclear. But Lockerbie was also a terrorist attack and many of the people directly involved were given "carte blanche" and we don't know exactly what role they will have in a possible post-Gaddafi scenario. From the point of view of the military operations, for me it's hard to believe that after such a long time, a military coalition as NATO was not able to produce visible and definitive results on the ground.

A situation similar to Libya is taking place for weeks in Syria. Assad's regime is not strange of the connections with terrorism as well. I don't pledge for a military intervention here too, but looking carefully into the facts I see the same stubborn refusal to accept pluralism and the opportunity of change. The same situation in Iran, another staunch supporter of terrorist organizations.

Would Osama's death deter the support for terrorism all over the world? Maybe it's too late now as he already produced various copies and supporters. Al Qaeda was structured at the beginning as an operational network of cells, operating independently. With or without a supreme leader, it was planned to act in various environments following the percepts of the religious extremism. This mushrooming would be, in fact, very difficult to control in the post-Osama era. It is unclear for the moment who's next in command or how the terrorist cells will react to the news. Maybe the SEAL interventions will continue, in Pakistan or elsewhere.

The story will continue to create sensation on social media and in various other media. Nothing unexpectedly that chunks of information went leaked on social media, creating the wave about the success (the operation, step-by-step was twitted, but we didn't know what this guy was tweeting about). And nothing strange that people celebrated on the streets on New York City or Washington DC. They did it to support America, not to ask the death of other nations and peoples as it's going on more often than we think on the Arab streets.

I tried to follow up the information on other media channels. For instance, Al Jazeera's reports were introducing Osama as a kind of romantic hero - he was peaceful, as a student he didn't involve in the 70s riots, a religious person (a mention made more than 3 times) etc..

What's for me very important in terms of understanding the current situation of the fight against terrorism is that he was killed in Pakistan. In the past, other big Al Qaeda and Taliban names have been captured in big Pakistani cities. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, for example, the Kuwaiti-born senior leader, was captured in Rawalpindi. Mullah Barandar, the Afghan Taliban military commander was reportedly captured in Karachi. Pakistan is an old ally of US, benefiting of a permanent support for decades for democratization of the military and the political system. This information about the location where Osama was killed is very important for the follow up of the war on terror in the next days, weeks, maybe years. Still waiting for an official reaction from Pakistan explaining how it was possible to host the no.1 terrorist very close to the capital-city.

Red Alert: Radiation Rising and Heading South in Japan | STRATFOR

2011-03-15T01:12:00.000-07:00

Red Alert: Radiation Rising and Heading South in Japan | STRATFOR

How a Libyan No-fly Zone Could Backfire | STRATFOR

2011-03-08T15:15:00.000-08:00

How a Libyan No-fly Zone Could Backfire | STRATFOR

Will Enthusiasm for Democracy Endure in Egypt and Elsewhere?

2011-03-08T15:14:00.000-08:00

The latest report from Pew Research Center.

Bahrain and the Battle Between Iran and Saudi Arabia | STRATFOR

2011-03-08T15:10:00.000-08:00

Bahrain and the Battle Between Iran and Saudi Arabia | STRATFOR

Why Gaddafi is still in power?

2011-03-07T07:55:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia//Gaddafi and the "friend" Putin

Trying to answer this question while looking at some recent news and reports regarding the support the regime from Tripoli enjoyed at various international and academic levels.

For example, LSE wasn't alone in its support for Gaddafi and his family. Michigan State University too contributed to the training of Libyan officials. Additionally, an impressive lobby was mobilized in the last decade for improving the image of the tribe-man on the international stage. And Tony Blair's "friendship" is well-known, isn't it?

The fights continue in Libya.

Latest from Libya

2011-03-03T01:18:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia//The UN headquarters in NY

As you probably know, Mr. Mu'ammar Abu Minyar al-Qaddhafi is still in power, continuing to kill its "beloved" people.

The protests and the international reactions, step-by-step, from The Telegraph.

Fights continues over the country and in the oil city of Brega. Tripoli is still in the control of Gaddafi's loyals.

The international world - a couple of month ago, not saying one single word against the terrorist - is asking him to go.

The flow of people continues in another serious humanitarian crisis...

Gunman Targets U.S. Soldiers At Frankfurt Airport | STRATFOR

2011-03-02T10:13:00.000-08:00

Gunman Targets U.S. Soldiers At Frankfurt Airport | STRATFOR

Libya's Terra Incognita | Foreign Affairs

2011-02-28T06:48:00.000-08:00

Libya's Terra Incognita | Foreign Affairs

Facing the new media freedom in N.Africa and the Middle East

2011-02-28T00:41:00.000-08:00

The Tunisian dilemma
Reporting in Libya: virtually impossible
A Saudi game
US Assistant Secretary of State about the situation of the media in the region
Yemen: Security forces attack journalists
Wave of arrests of Syrian bloggers
UAE Internet policies
RSF: Media continues to be target

Brookings Institute: Understanding the age shifts in the Middle East

2011-02-27T23:44:00.000-08:00

An analysis from June 2010.

Daily Media Digest

2011-02-27T01:45:00.000-08:00

N. Africa and the Middle East

Libya: UN approved tough sanctions, UK Forces resumed the rescue,
Tunisia: three killed during the clashes
Yemen: accusations of splitting the country
Pledges for competitive elections in Egypt
Bahrain opposition leader returns from exile

Latin America

Political prisoners freed in Cuba
Dialogue between Uruguay and Argentina

Asia

North Korea is threatening the South
Tightened security in Shanghai

Africa

Zimbabwe: Constitutional discussions in danger
Gunfire in Abidjan

Europe

Ireland: Fine Gael's victory
Cameron's clarifications about the "multiculturalism" speech
Timelines of Assange's trial - in the perspective of his extradition to Sweden
Which league plays Berlusconi?
Clashes and anti-governmental protests in Croatia

US and Canada

Canada's immigration policy
US: The danger of budget cuts

New Zealand and Australia

Australia: Tougher sanctions against Gaddafi
New Zealand: The death toll

Daily Media Digest

2011-02-25T06:57:00.000-08:00

N. Africa and the Middle East

Another Friday of protest in the region - country by country
Libya: Bribe for freedom, Saif Gaddafi's ties to LSE and Britain, Thousands fear dead, Gaddafi blames Al Qaeda, Where is the EU?
Egyptians call for reform
Moves in Saudi Arabia

Europe

Putin and the people
Ireland votes
The NATO chief meeting EU Defense ministers in Hungary
The battle for euro between the German right and the European left
Greece relying on its own power

Africa

Zimbabwe: Violences ahead of predictable elections

Asia

Will North Korea will be next?
India could be milk importer by 2022
Japan: slowest rate of population growth since 1920s

US and Canada

Black History Month at the White House
Canada: Charges against four officials of the Conservative Party

Jihadist Opportunities in Libya | STRATFOR

2011-02-24T23:17:00.000-08:00

Jihadist Opportunities in Libya | STRATFOR

Daily Media Digest

2011-02-23T23:08:00.000-08:00

North Africa and Middle East

The water issue
Possible EU sanctions on Libyan regime
Al Qaeda branch in North Africa backs the anti-Gaddafi revolt. The delusion of African grandeur. World nations are evacuating their citizens. Gaddafi tighten grip. A wave of 350,000 migrants on hold

Africa

Zimbabwe fears an Egyptian scenario

Europe

Germany and France want equal footing on EADS
Germany: 2 Islamic terrorist suspects arrested
Zu Guttenberg: The dispute continues
Ireland: predictable defeat of the ruling party
David Cameron calls for radical reform of EU aid
US and Canada

More US pressures to Libya
Sarah Palin to visit India next month

Australia and New Zealand

The aftermath of the New Zealand earthquake: 98 persons

Asia

China: proposing death penalty for organ trafficking
Taiwan and China: more talks on individual tourism
UNESCO envoy to visit Thailand and Cambodia

Global markets

The price of the oil, on rise

Daily Media Digest

2011-02-22T23:00:00.000-08:00

North Africa and Middle East

EU fears waves of immigration
A Libyan navy, near the Maltese coast. UN condemnds crackdown. The intricate tribal context.
Call for unity in Bahrain
Algeria to lift state of emergency
The passage of the Iranian ship through Suez delayed for 48 hours
Launch of the Magna MENA Fund
The consequences of the political turmoil to the world economy

Africa

Battles errupt in the Ivory Coast
S. Africa is going through a complicated economic situation

Europe

Kosovo: Thaci re-named PM
Greek bail-out to be extended
France's nuclear ambitions
Italy and Turkey's friends
Putin at the EU

US and Canada

Rahm Emanuel, mayor of Chicago

Australia and New Zealand

Christchurch tragedy

Revolution and the Muslim World | STRATFOR

2011-02-22T09:45:00.000-08:00

Revolution and the Muslim World | STRATFOR

Daily Media Digest

2011-02-22T01:04:00.000-08:00

North Africa and the Middle East

Violences continue in Libya. Testimonies about the regime. Events in Libya dominate the main pages of the international media. Libya and its oil resources. Libyan embassy in Australia cuts ties with Gaddafi
Two Iranian warships enter Suez Canal
Yemen president insists to stay in power

Europe

Merkel plays down Hamburg defeat.
Zu Guttenberg gives up his doctorate till further clarifications
Serbia hurry up to enter the Algerian arms market
David Cameron in Egypt: The urge for reforms
Greece plans tought tax evasion laws

Africa

Omar al-Bashir will not stand for re-election
Police base in Somalia attacked by insurgents
Discussions about Cote d'Ivoire

Asia

China cracks down on social media
Chances for reconciliation between Thailand and Cambodia in the border dispute

Latin America

Hunger strike in Venezuela. Chavez's failures.
Chilean miners to visit Israel
Argentina and MERCOSUR

US and Canada

Another Chinese official refugiated in Canada?
US Navy leader to China: "be responsible and constructive"

Australia and New Zealand

Earthquake in New Zealand
Australia hit by cyclone

Book Review: Crude World

2011-02-21T07:22:00.000-08:00

As a direct consequence of the previous book I wrote about, the world of those involved with various transactions with raw materials is crude, at least immoral and violent: A crude world. Among all the resources, oil benefited of a triple attention and was introduced as actor in various evaluations of political and geopolitical moves. The war in Iraq? Of course, the cause is the oil, many answered automatically with a self-sufficient air. But what about Afghanistan? Wait and see, something have to be there excepting poppy...

What we don't talk too much is the fact that the natural resources, in wrong hands, prove to be lethal weapons turned against the population and democracy. In Iraq, not the American soldiers sold the oil for getting money for building expensive presidential palaces, but Saddam's clique. This is only an example.

Peter Maass started the documentation for the book started long before 9/11 and the author visited several countries as Nigeria, Russia, Kuwait, Equatorial Guinea, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Venezuela, Iraq or Kuwait. The author is following the idea of the "resources curse": natural resources, specifically oil, creates many troubles and it is not the automatic condition for improving the economic status. South Korea and Japan might be good examples in this direction. Among the cases analized - in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America - all the countries are fighting with institutionalized corruption, democratic deficit and economic unbalances. The notable exception: Norway enjoying lots of resources and equally a vibrand economy and a democratic system. In many situations, as it is the case in Russia or Saudi Arabia (who possesses 21% of the world's conventional reserves, p. 17), information about the volume of resources are classified under the category of "state secret", allowing abuses and various infringements of the international legislation.

But, oil also brought know-how, created the need for highly educated specialists becoming part of the local elites and international investments. In the latter case, the big companies adapted very rapidly to the local customs and are eager to pay as many bribes as possible to get their fields or investments. All you need is to ask "What's your number?"

The situation is not deadlocked, even it will be very difficult to challenge the deep culture of abuse and manipulation, lasting for centuries: the creation of monitoring bodies in terms of business ethics, implementation of transparent legislation, the push for democracy and rule of law all over the world. The interest for alternative energies might switch progressively the interest to other kind of energy resources, with a less appetite for arbitrary. By then, I completely agree with this affirmation (p.118): “Like a nation or nationality, the industry has its particular belief system, its financial and political interests, its social layers and pecking orders. In some ways, it has the hallmarks of a political party and a religious movement”.

Book Review: The King of Oil

2011-02-21T06:31:00.000-08:00

In the world of the big businesses, the rules are different, the measures are different and the consequences, obviously, of another level.

The book is a careful and balanced account - for me, the first one, so I am not able to draw a detailed comparison with other works - of the adventurous life of Marc Rich. But, thinking about other similar stories of big names of the resources business, his story is having a high degree of plausibility. Love stories, dangerous places, illegal or not in accordance with the generally accepted rules, state controversies and subsequent hunting, political risks. In addition, Rich went involved in philanthropic activities, not only for the sake of fame and success.

I was reading the book with the same curiosity shared for a crime and spy story. Was wondering what the next move will be in order to avoid the long arm of the US Marshals, even I knew very well that he was not harmed and escaped miraculously the various attempts to be brought in the States.

It is a luck of the hunted rich people? And suddenly I was thinking about the strange fate of Khodorkovsky. I don't believe in conspiration theories, as I am convinced that many attacks against Rich were deeply Anti-Semitic (and in many places in the world, ridiculous dwarfs are using his name as a self-sufficient explanation of their hate against Jews). If it is was possible to pardon him - whatever the risk - I am inclined to believe that, in fact, the whole story was having at least a very slim political substratum. Because after reading this book I am almost perfectly convinced that in this kind of businesses, it's no place for angels, but sometimes, it is worthy a prayer.

Daily Media Digest

2011-02-21T00:50:00.000-08:00

N. Africa and the Middle East

Protests spreading in Libya. Live testimonies about the events: http://audioboo.fm/feb17voices
Tunisia seeks Ben Ali extradition
The unrest in Morocco continues
Egypt: Banks and pyramids are now open. Will be the new government preoccupied by acquiring nuclear weapons?

Israel monitoring Suez-bound Iran ships

Asia

Failure of the Jasmine Protests?
Philippines: Remember People Power
ASEAN meeting trying to solve the border dispute

Europe

France: Dominique Strauss-Kahn, possible competitor for Sarkozy?
EU: More money for the Mediterranean countries?
Hungary: Structural reforms not on table
Russia asks Serbia to do not join NATO

Australia

Gillard, to meet Obama soon

Africa

Somalia: Suicide car-bomb near Mogadishu

Latin America

Cuba: News about the latest release of prisoners
The Chile-Peru dispute on Wikileaks
Peru: crack-down on illegal gold miners in Amazon

Daily Media Digest

2011-02-20T10:26:00.000-08:00

Middle East

Al Jazeera: Death toll in Libya - 200 persons, at least
Yemen: Separatist leader arrested and Students continue the protests against the president
Bahrain under fire. US top-diplomat call for reforms "now"
Newsweek, on Egypt: The Facebook freedom fighters and The tragedy of Hosni Mubarak
Iran: Rafsanjani's daughter arrested
US vote and the UN Resolution on Settlements. The reactions from the Arab world: Arab League, Palestinian protests, Jordan regrets

Europe

EU bets on Ireland's recovery
Bilbao: Support for the Basque party
Romania, Bulgaria and Schengen

Latin America

Dissident freed in Cuba
Calls for boosting ties with the Middle East
Waiting for Obama
Political movies at Berlinale

Asia

Chinese security officials respond to call for protests
Japan to dig site linked to WWII human experiment

Africa

Protests in Morocco, asking the limitations of King's powers
EU's answer to the protests in North Africa
Uganda: Controversial vote

Global trends

G-20 meeting is over

Bahrain: Short overview of the kingdom

2011-02-18T02:42:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia//Bahrain coat of arms

The recent protests in Bahrain put this country on the media spot. And, as usual when we have to deal with countries outside the European space, we have many basic questions, I tried to answer for myself, as the protests are expected to continue over the week-end.

A Major Non-NATO Ally of the US

Bahrain is the smallest Arab state and an important ally of the US in the Persian Gulf, hosting the US Fifth Fleet - about 1500 United States and coalition military personnel. It enjoys the status of Major Non-NATO Ally, conferred in 2003 by George W. Bush, a status also enjoyed by Egypt, since 1989. This status confers several financial and military advantages, among which military purchases, anti-terrorist support or transfer of technology.

The recent protests took place 10 years after the referendum aiming to introduce the principles of constitutional monarchy. Following those changes, the country successfully conducted in 2002 the first democratic parliamentary election in the Arab Gulf. In the same year, in April, it made CNN when a Bahraini youth was killed trying to storm the US embassy in an anti-US riot. On the other hand, six people originary from Bahrain went fo Guantanamo Bay, among which one member of the ruling family. From the religious point of view, it is a country with shi’a majority, struggling a difficult economic condition and a Suni minority in power.

The Cabinet is appointed by the King, with half of the members coming from the royal family. The country's elected parliament is the only one in the Gulf Arab region besides Kuwait's assembly, but its bills still need to pass an upper house (Shura) that is appointed by the king. Al Wefaq bloc, with a strong religious stance, organized last year, in October, massive rallies, asking for the boycott of elections. Now, ahead of the latest protests, members of the bloc announced the intention of refusing to partipate to the works of the legislative.

Last year, the emirate was in the midst of a major crackdown on its opposition. Two dozen dissidents, including intellectuals, clerics and a prominent blogger, had been rounded up, charged under anti-terrorism laws and allegedly tortured. A human rights group that had received U.S. funding was taken over by the government. Human Rights Watch had concluded that "what we are seeing in Bahrain these days is a return to full-blown authoritarianism." But at the end of 2010, while in Bahrain, Hillary Clinton praised implicitly the ruling family: "I am very impressed by the progress that Bahrain is making on all fronts - economically, politically, socially". When asked by a member of Parliament to comment the fact that "many people are arrested, lawyers and human rights activists”, Clinton's condescending offered explicitly her support for the ruling family. "It's easy to be focused internally and see the glass as half empty. I see the glass as half full," she said. "Yes, I mean people are arrested and people should have due process . . . but on the other hand the election was widely validated. . . . So you have to look at the entire picture". Before this week protests, the authorities imposed several restrictions to the web, as in Tunisia, Egypt, Iran...After the last protests, the US Administration asked Bahrain to show restraint.

As many other countries from the region, Bahrain don’t recognize the state of Israel. But, in the same time, it designated the first Jewish ambassador of an Arab country: Ms. Houda Ezra Ebrahim Nonoo the top-diplomat in the US who is in the same time the first female Bahraini ambassador. The members of the Jewish community, 36, are encouraged to express their identity, but they are not allowed to visit Israel, due to the lack of official diplomatic relations.

As in the other recent and very recent cases, it is not clear what will be the final outcome and this will not be able to see from a day to another. More to come, for sure.

Daily Media Digest

2011-02-18T02:03:00.000-08:00

Europe

Belgium: 250 days without government
Portugal under euro-zone pressure
The crackdown on the Belarusian opposition continues. OSCE expresses strong concerns.

Middle East and the Arab World

Bahrain is mourning the victims of the latest protests
Dozens reported killed in Libya
Unrest in Yemen
What's going on with Ben Ali? (Actually, I will be extremely careful with this kind of "news": recently, Mubarak also was assumed being in coma. What's the conclusion: the lost of undemocratic power leads to cerebral commotion?)
The Egyptian assets in Switzerland
Egypt: former ministers arrested
Incredible Syria: lecturing EU on democracy

Africa

Uganda votes
Nigeria adopted its first anti-terrorist act
Clashes in South Sudan: 20,000 persons forced to flee

Asia

China, ready to block UN report on North Korea
The Japan-Russia debate over Kurile: to be continued

Latin America

Brazil: War on drug-trafficking
US: Chavez' influence, in decline

Global Markets

G20 Meeting
Robert Zoellick: A monetary regime for a multipolar world
Gazprom: ready for deliveries to the US

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

2011-02-08T02:07:00.000-08:00

In their own words or how to use democracy to kill democracy.
Regional dangers of the current situation in Egypt, the consequences for Israel (and not only).

Demise of the Dictators - Newsweek

2011-02-07T16:46:00.000-08:00

Demise of the Dictators - Newsweek

Book Review: Understanding Arabs

2011-02-06T03:18:00.000-08:00

With the whole discussions from the last two months, in the media and in the public space, about the Middle East - not exclusively focused, as usual, on the Israeli-Palestinian issue - a book explaining simply what are the main traits and cultural habits of the Arabs is extremely useful.

And the term "Guide", from the intertitle is expressing exactly what this book it is about: an introduction in the culture, society, language, customs, religion, tradition and raily life. The examples took from the daily life are offering authenticity and direct insights. The references are mostly cultural, with basic information that need further bibliography.

But if you want to move or travel to one of the countries from the region and need more than the indications from the usual guides or if you want to start your intellectual journey across the region, this book is a good start.

Pharaohs-in-Waiting - The Atlantic

2011-02-01T07:17:00.000-08:00

Pharaohs-in-Waiting - The Atlantic

Main Players In Egypt: Mubarak, Muslim Brotherhood, ElBaradei, Suleiman, Protestors, Nour | The New Republic

2011-02-01T07:01:00.000-08:00

Main Players In Egypt: Mubarak, Muslim Brotherhood, ElBaradei, Suleiman, Protestors, Nour | The New Republic

Egypt, Democracy and Islam

2011-02-01T02:29:00.000-08:00

A Pew Research Center analysis from almost one year ago.
My observation is that, usually, during crisis, the opinions are very much exposed to radical and dramatic changes. Everything it is a matter of the leadership and alternatives.
For me, democracy is the only solution, but I am not too much in denial to deny the fact that for many countries, democracy doesn't mean a word. Unfortunately.

Movie review: The Green Wave

2011-02-01T02:22:00.000-08:00

A couple of weeks ago, I was recommended by some of my Iranian friends to take 30 minutes of my time and watch The Green Wave, a documentary about Mousavi's activity during the electoral campaign in Iran.

I understand now very well that a radical change from a day to another or radical messages of change are, at least, counter-productive in a country whose base is still very traditional, and not necessarily city/urban-based. In this case, the "green" reference - what for us the Westerners might mean "spring", "beginning", in the Middle East it is obviously associated with religion - is understandable and at the end of the (political) game, the adversities can be reduced to who's the best fit guardian of the belief.

I was waiting from such a movie less political advertising - very good filmed images of masses and popular gatherings, anyway - and more information: as long as it is aired in the West, we have to be convinced about what Moussavi represents in terms of potential of change. As you don't need to hold a Psychology and Psychiatry diploma for reading the face of Ahmadinejad.

And, by the way, I wish all those whose faced are appearing in the movie are still free and alive...

The Egypt Crisis in a Global Context: A Special Report | STRATFOR

2011-02-01T02:04:00.000-08:00

The Egypt Crisis in a Global Context: A Special Report | STRATFOR

News from the Middle East

2011-01-18T16:28:00.000-08:00

Pressed by protests all over the area, the Arab leaders to pledge $2B to revamp economies at an economic forum this Wednesday, at Sharm el-Sheikh.

The protests reached Oman. Reports from the area are talking about 200 people asking a stronger stance against corruption, while some other news widespread on social media are mentioning 2000...Mispellings?

And this is a piece from the FP, on Anwar Al-Awlaki.

Plus, some thoughts about the waves of self-immolations. It is a form of political protest not brand new in politics, as it showed, in January 19 1969, Jan Palach, in the then Czechoslovak Communist Republic or the Tiananmen protesters in 1989. I don't have enough information for reading it according to an universal pattern, as a pure protest against an oppressive regime, without any cultural and religious specific frames.

I want to share a couple of non-scholarly thoughts on what it is going on in the area.

In the last two weeks, it was an over increasing avalanche of information regarding the protests and evolutions or involutions from the region, mostly, but not exclusively in English, French, Arabic. New blogs are created or old ones discovered. I had a very short virtual tour the last hour of many interesting and creative blogs written by people living in the region. It's a pitty that we found them only now, as many of them are hosting good discussions about other topics than politics and protests. For understanding what it is going on now, you need a lot of information about the cultural and mentalities' background. Unfortunately, we are now facing a burning out of too much data, news - not always accurate - about events, persons and situations leading to fortuite conclusions.

For the moment, we see only shadows, in an Oriental-wise "ombres Chinoises" theater in the style of "1001+ nights". We, in the West, we optimistically wish the blessings of democracy spreading all over the world. It will be wonderful, but...

- those countries never experienced the basics of what we call democracy: separation of power, free and transparent institutions, respect for human - and women - rights, free media, free elections. You need years and deep beliefs to create such habitus, to educate people to refuse and oppose any kind of dictatorship/non-democratic regimes and politicians.

- fighting corruption in an effective way it is a good line of a manifest for the future, but the idea of "corruption" is projected in the discourses of some religious leaders as the fault of "secular" leaders, aiming to force modernization of their societies. According to those statements, the West is portrayed as "corrupt", in comparison with the societies ruled by the laws of Islam.

- excepting the religious parties and organizations - the Muslim Brotherhood is an example, banned or isolated from the political scene, there are not too many, if any, secular structures able to assume coherently and without relying on the (sometimes extreme) religious leaders. The experience and presence of some exiled leaders is not automatically the key for a separation from the past - see, for example, Iraq.

- this complex situation going on in the Middle East would likely block than empower further discussions between the state of Israel and the representatives of the Palestinian Authority - unable to take dramatic decisions exclusively by themselves. For one month, maybe for more.

- I can bet that the same disorientation is shared in Tehran.

All we need is to watch and think and ponder and use our critical thinking capacities.

Movie review: In this World

2011-01-18T03:31:00.000-08:00

The world is not fair and the place you are born in might be a luck or a curse. Following the silk road of despair presented in the movie In this World, I had a couple of pessimistic thoughts about how limited our chances might be sometimes and how easily do we waste the lucky cards, simply because we don't know how it is to have a bad life.

The movie is the story of two Afghans, Enayat and Jamal, living for years in a refugee camp in Shamshatoo, from the time of the Soviet invasion. In such places, people are living short, in misery, children face the reality of life from early age and, without any clear future, would be recruited by various terrorist gangs. It is not the lack of Western-wise comfort and easy life that is shocking, but the stucked lives: it is not tomorrow, only the present dedicated to survival. The two Afghans are sent by their family - we don't see any women side of the family, but a society dominated by men - in London, smuggled through Iran, Turkey, via Italy and with the final destination: London. No papers, just money and some telephone numbers. A huge invisible because nobody cares about them network is put into movement by money. Money can't buy a new life, as it is the case of Enayat, who didn't survive the trip on container. Jamal is luckier, but not lucky enough to be provided refugee status in the UK and will have to leave the country before 18.

This is a problem with granting refugee status, but it is a problem for Europe as well, overexposed by the illegal networks using humans as animals. It is a problem for the Afghan kids as well, who don't have the chance to a normal life, school and education. It is a human problem of all of us, far beyond the old Silk Road.

Understanding the Muslim Brotherhood

2011-01-16T04:10:00.000-08:00

The members of this organization are not so hidden and not so secretive. This is only a problem of being able to understand who's who. And mostly, where are they operating - and yes, Tunisia is on the list too.

A couple of links contributing to a wider picture:

Moderates, not exactly...

Claire Berlinski, on their origins

Carnegie Papers: The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood

The Muslim Brotherhood and the last elections in Jordan

The official website, in English - interesting to follow various reactions on the events taking place in the North of Africa and in the Middle East

Death of an Iranian Prince

2011-01-05T01:40:00.000-08:00

Alireza Pahlavi, the younger son of the late shah of Iran was found dead, after he killed himself in his Boston residence. The role of the shah family in the current political developments in Iran is limited, and rather symbolical in relation with the main world power brokers.

About Facebook states

2011-01-04T09:51:00.000-08:00

This is a post I was thinking about a very long time the last year, but because too busy with other conflicts, I delayed the documentation.

I was thinking about the latest Latin American spontaneous moves to declare the recogniziting of a Palestinian state "within the 1967 borders": (alphabetically) Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador and Uruguay. Chile and Paraguay are preparing to do it soon. And I was thinking, again, about the situation of Kosovo, a state who self-declared independence in February 2008, facing various system and structural problems, as well as the lack of elites. There are, of course, different shapes of the cups of tea, and the regions are having a different profile. But I was curious if the pioneers of independence proceeded similarly in the case of Kosovo, where most part of the current political leaders used to be part of the UCK, with a limited record of terrorism and repression in comparison with Hamas.

Let's have a look at the arguments:

Argentina declared that it will not recognise it because "it supports the principle of territorial integrity".

Brazil pledged that a peaceful solution for the issue of Kosovo must continue to be sought through dialogue and negotiation.

Bolivian president Evo Morales, refused, on February 2008 to recognize Kosovo's independence and compared the separatists with the leaders of the Bolivian states who have demanded greater autonomy.

Ecuadorian authorities promised they would carefully examine the developments in the area.

Uruguay expressed its official point of view in March 2008, according to "Ultima Noticias", as follows: "Uruguay has not recognized Kosovo's declaration of independence, because doing so would not be in in accordance with its required three pillars of recognition: the principle of territorial integrity of states, achieving a solution through dialogue and consensu, and recognition by international organisations".

Diplomacy, intelligence and caution are required in both cases and Che Guevara-like games might have unexpected boomerang effects.

Religion and voting in Sudan

2011-01-04T04:28:00.000-08:00

A year in books: 2010

2011-01-04T04:17:00.000-08:00

I had a look this morning over the list of the best books sold and recommended by Amazon. And, not surprisingly, I found a couple of books covering exclusively or partially aspects related to foreign affairs and international politics.

From the category "Biographies and Memoirs", you have, in this order of preference: Laura Hillebrand (1) - Unbroken: A World War II Story of Survival, Resilience and Redemption; Laura Bush (3) - Spoken from the Heart (useful for understanding the mentality basis of the Bush family); Karl Rove (15) - Courage and Consequence: My Life as a Conservative in the Fight; George W. Bush (18) - Decision Points (Laura took it all in the family, apparently), Son of Hamas: A Gripping Account of Terror, Betrayal, Political Intrigue, and Unthinkable Choices (24) (the only one from the list I've read and which, in my opinion, is full of stereotypes and who benefited of an undiserved - from the qualitative point of view - advertising), Andrew Young (26) - The Politician. An Insider's Account of John Edward's Pursuit of the Presidency and the Scandal that Brought him down.

From the category "Thriller and Fiction", on the 6th place you will find Glenn Beck's The Overton Window (the expression means a "window" in the range of public reactions to ideas in public discourse, from a spectrum of all possible options on a particular issue). I don't like nothing about Glenn Beck, but I would be curious to read his book, as part of my usual documentation about politics and people who want to be part of them.

The politics are represented in the category of "Literature and Fiction" with Karl Marlante's Matterhorn: A Novel of the Vietnam War, on the 1st place, Freedom, by Jonathan Franzen (3) and David Grossman (7) To the End of Land. (the last two books are on my shelves, waiting to be open very very soon).

Maybe today will be a day dedicated exclusively to reading and more and more writing to be posted very very soon.

Sparks of revolt in Tunisia, but will it be fire?

2011-01-02T13:36:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia//The president of Tunisia

Mohamed Bouazizi is a 26 years old Tunisian, and graduated Mahdia University and unemployed. After the local police from central-west side of the country police confiscated his fruits and vegetables because lacking a proper permit, he set himself on fire, December 17 2010. Now he is in intensive care and visited by officials looking extremely interested about his situation and, in general, about the fate of the youth in the country. UPDATE: Bouazizi died, January 5.

But he was and is not alone and shortly after, protests widespread over the country, but were isolated and repressed by the police and information about were not published in the state media. The most part of the news about the situation were transmitted by bloggers writing inside the country (Here are a couple of examples, in French, Arabic and English: Moor Next Door, A Tunisian Girl, Revolution Tunisie) and on Twitter. Al Jazeera dedicated a 23 minutes report on the situation, in its glamorous CNN-style adapted for the Middle East.

The youth, whose protests are not of recent date, but only the latest won certain intensity for being related in the international media, are asking for less corruption and more professional opportunities based on merit. Demonstrators brandished signs reading “Spread the Wealth” and “Balanced Development of Regions”. With the exception of the tourist zones contributing with a lot of cash to the economy, who made Tunisia famous among Westerners keen to taste some "Orient" without risking the terrorist danger, the unemployment is over 10 percent.

The president Zine al-Abidine ben Ali, ruler of the country for 23 years (who, among others, was involved in the national resistance against the French but studied later at the famous military French Academy Saint Cyr - his Romantic biography can be accessed here), condemned the foreign media for “manipulating images from the protest”. He also ordered the prime minister to mobilize authorities nationwide for a 6.5 billion dinar ($4.5 billion) plan to create jobs for Tunisians with university diplomas — a substantial sum for a country of only 10 million people. But the opposition, unable to reach too much power, in a country qualified by the US administration according to the Wikileaks as a “police state,” says the government's response has been inadequate and that the protests are fueled not only by unemployment but by the lack of human rights. The president also reshuffled the Cabinet: the communications minister was replaced, while the Interior minister, guilty for the force interventions against protesters was kept. The minister for trade and the minister for religious affairs were also replaced.

Opposition politicians say dozens have been arrested and at least three persons were killed.

Some journalists from the Western media consider the revolt as a sign of change, but I would rather be cautious about declaring that the change – in what direction, and leaded by whom – already took place. Tunisia might be considered a kind of Egypt at a different scale, but it doesn't mean it is less exposed to the risks of instability and extreme temptations and dangers.

And, in the middle of the turmoil, the Tunisian regime is ready to greet Abu Mazen, the president of the Palestinian Authority.

Who will take the bad luck?

SALT

2011-01-02T05:55:00.000-08:00

I have the great pleasure to introduce to my readers a new - entertainment like - section of my blog: movie reviews, with connection with foreign affairs. Movies are a mirror of mentalities and we only have to think about the period of the "atomic bomb" for realizing how much the visual narratives are used for creating a certain mind framework. And, nevertheless we need some relaxing times from time to time, far away of the world of serious decisions and power brokers, isn't it?

For the beginning I recommend you Salt - the story of a CIA agent (Angelina Jolie) fighting to prove its innocence - by killing everything moving around her, as a brave role model - against the accusations of being a Soviet spy. The movie was released in 2010, and it is about an impressive network of Soviet spies, made of children whose parents died (or were killed) in the Soviet Union. They were brainwashed, educated and sent abroad to infiltrate the America's centers of command. Again, we are in 2010, more than 20 years after the end of the Cold War. The main interest of the network is to start a nuclear war - as in the old good times, in the 60s, if do you remember...But, even in some cases the names changed, you have only to think a bit back a couple of month ago about the famous Ana Chapman's network of spies dismantled in the US. The mindset didn't changed too much, only the age and appearance of the instruments. After 11/9 we got used with the movies focused on terrorism and this one is like a flash back from the not-so-far history. A big country is always facing big enemies, from all sides.
As in this latest big spy case, the network is freely operating in the very heart of the American Empire and probably in the real world, this is exactly like this. From the very beginning, the family name of the powerful agent reminds me of the SALT - Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, started in the 60s between the USA and the Soviet Union on the issue of armament control. The movie is full of suspense and action and Jolie's acrobatics to escape her followers are breathtaking in some cases. And at the end, the mission is accomplished and the discrete agent is disappearing from the public eyes. End of this game. To be continued.

Deciphering Kyrgyzstan

2010-12-31T05:18:00.000-08:00

Kyrgyzstan, a country that we, in the West, hardly identify on the map, is not only a mystery, but a place – as many in the world – where you could read the Cold War, the latest impact of globalization and the geopolitical reassessments. More than Belarus, it is a benchmark in the regional configuration, given its potential and the crossings of various interests.

Since December 2001, it was opened here a base – Manas Air Base, currently the Transit Center at Manas - to support U.S. military operations in the ongoing war in Afghanistan. As in the case of other countries from the former Soviet empire, as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the US and international presence in general, was considered an important assets in getting more money and recognition – despite the poor record in the area of corruption, democracy and human rights. But, for small countries, it is almost impossible to play alone. Russia and China have been pushing often for the closure of the base and the local Parliament voted in December 2009 in favor of such a move. The base will continue to be hosted until 2014.

When it is not in the cards of the big power-brokers, Kyrgyzstan is trying, not always successful to build its own path. And we will hear again in the news about the country when there are violent coups – as it was this April, when the former president Kumanbek Bakiyev was removed from power and fled to Belarus. The country is facing economic problems, but also an ethnic conflict in the South, with the Uzbeks, where during the last summer there were registered several clashes, leading to the death of hundreds and displacement of thousands. But in a country where you don’t have free media and full democracy, it is difficult to estimate the situation.

In the last years, people went out in the street fighting for reform – as it was the case in 2006, where the current prime-minister Almazbek Atambayev participated to the protests of the movement За Реформы (For Reform). But it is hard to understand from the first sight why the reform couldn’t be accomplished. The latest parliamentary elections leaded to the creation of a coalition of opposition parties, who could play a big role in promoting democracy, given the increased powers of the Parliament since this summer.

As in the case of other ex Soviet members – as Moldova – the first trip overseas of the new prime minister was in Moscow, for meeting Vladimir Putin and got back the promise of more investments and loans. On the other hand, the West is trying to do its best, with fewer financial resources in comparison with the beginning of 1990s, for helping the country, but after more than 20 years of experience in the transitional processes in the former communist countries, not too many wonders to be expected.

The tensed relations with the neighbors – Belarus is hosting the former president, Uzbekistan just raised the natural-gas price, despite the Kyrgyz promise for a nomination of the president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, for the Nobel Peace Prize - are increasing the level of dependency of the country of Russia. But what it is the advantage for Russia to keep all those “satellites”, apart the illusion of the glorious “old good times” of the Soviet Union?

Belarus, the rogue state

2010-12-30T09:38:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia//Lukashenko is looking East

Belarus – or White Russia – where it is on the map? What can you, my reader, tell me about this state? A couple of months ago, maybe the last year, I’ve read an interesting article in the Monocle review about the business environment and the expat life there. I doubt it was a promotional one, but anyway, it was interesting to discover that it is something going on in this corner of the world – is this part of Europe?, you might ask.

What I know for sure, without reading daily reports about Belarus is that there is a president called Aleksandr Lukashenko, a former director of a state-owned agricultural farm, who is in power since 1994. And who is organizing puppet elections for enjoying the wonderful pleasure of being reelected – with a vast majority, if possible, this time with a successful rate of almost 97%.

As in many puppet states, there are opposition parties whose candidates are allowed to compete, but if unhappy with the results, they are in danger to be put in prison and convicted for years in prison. And this is available for anybody daring to protest, as it happened on the streets of Minsk, December 19^th: journalists, civic activists, or even foreign citizens of the former Empire.

The US and EU condemned the post-election crackdown and said the ballot itself had been flawed and international media extensively reported about the daily violences and the international reactions.

Is Russia – with whom Belarus had a long dispute in 2006 over the gas supplies in 2006 – a supporter of Lukashenko? This is hard to think that without Russia’s support, few of the countries with open communications channels with Minsk – Lukashenko will resist. Apparently, as in other situations, the discussions over gas is a completely separate business of the political dialogue. In comparison with other years, Moscow, and mainly prime-minister Vladimir Putin, is decided to avoid any new gas rows and by thus, giving a green light to Minsk to continue unhampered its repressive policies. A free Belarus will think about joining EU and NATO and will be a lost card from the poker full of the old Empire. A dangerous game for the future.

A Hungarian wind of change?

2010-12-30T09:12:00.000-08:00

Among the members of the Eastern Bloc, Hungary was always the terrible child, the object of the envy of many of the comrades from the other side of the Iron Curtain. The events from 1956, the slow but firm opening of the economy to the market, the contribution to the fall of communism, by removal of the 150 miles border fence with Austria, in May 1989, and allowing East German tourists on holiday to escape to the West…There are only a couple of the main facts contributing to the European profile of Hungary. To this, it may be added the strong national identity and the persistence in supporting the country’s interests all over the world, through a well-organized and efficient lobby. After the end of the Cold War, Hungary succeeded in becoming a prosperous NATO (1999) and EU (2004) member.

From January 1^st 2011, Hungary will take over the rotating presidency of the EU facing a difficult regional agenda, with the debt crisis on the very top of the priorities. But, in the same time, the conservative government run by Viktor Orbán is the subject of home and external criticism for various political initiatives: from the recent nationalizations to the intrusion of the state in the affairs of the media.

According to the law voted this week by the FIDESZ dominated parliament and waiting the signature of the president – who is having strong ties with the ruling party - , the new National Media and Communications Authority (NMHH), dominated by people loyal to the ruling FIDESZ party, will oversee all public news production and its powers will include levying big fines - up to 730,000 euros ($950,000) - or shut down news outlets which flout rules. The media is under threat in other former communist countries, but also in Italy, where the prime-minister Silvio Berlusconi is controlling the press directly or through its trustworthy representatives.

Despite international criticism from Luxembourg and Germany, and the mobilization of the Hungarian journalists (mostly on social media as Facebook or Twitter, but also through the local Hungarian 2.0 networks), the FIDESZ’s leaders announced that they will not give up. But, taking into account Italy’s precedent, many EU diplomats are already skeptic that those provisions will affect Hungary’s relations within the Union and, by thus, the freedom of movement as president of the 27-member bloc. Despite the protests of the OSCE and of the European Parliament, the local authorities are denying any attempts to crack down on media. "It's very regrettable that the latest international opinions don't include any facts, only fears and threats," Peter Szijjarto, the Prime Minister's spokesman said in a release Thursday.

Hungary escaped financial meltdown in 2008 thanks to a bailout of the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The government's unconventional fiscal measures -- which include taxes levied on banks and mostly foreign firms and an effective nationalization of private pension fund assets -- have prompted ratings downgrades and elevated Hungary's risk premia as investors worry that the deficit could swell after 2012. Another controversial measure took by Orban's FIDESZ was the intrusion in the justice and the politicisation of the institution, after people loyal to the party were placed at the top of public institutions in a consolidation of power that is expected to continue. A phenomenon very familiar in many Eastern European countries.

Among the main tasks that Hungary will have to manage are: the talks on the 2014-2020 EU’s budget, the integration of Roma minority and the discussions whether Romania and Bulgaria are ready enough for joining the Schengen free-travel zone.

On the other hand, the powers of the six-month presidency were limited after the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty which created the positions of EU high representative and of EU permanent president, who will oversee the whole activity. Hungarian officials will preside over monthly meetings of ministers of agriculture, energy, environment, employment and, most crucially, of finances.

Viktor Orbán and many of its top party members used to be on the forefront of changes in Hungary, educated in the West, protesting against communism and supporting an economic liberal agenda. Little by little they turned the page to a conservative side and alienated most part of the media and the public intellectuals. The failure of the previous socialist party, rotten by corruption promoted their comeback in force, this April together with the resurgence of far-right parties. The further internal evolutions and the international behaviors will be decisive in the months to come for outlining the Hungarian profile in the 21st century, with a regional impact hard to estimate for the moment. And there are already too many question marks about this future.

New Year's Resolutions

2010-12-29T09:35:00.000-08:00

The list of the next 25 posts - at least - is ready and hope to be able to finish them as soon as possible, including in the next two days. The priority lists of books and articles and topics I would like to write about is under evaluation. My objectives for the next 12 months?

Not too many, but pretty ambitious:

- To finish my wonderful book about Diplomacy 2.0

- To finish my e-book project dedicated to the most important events of the last year. The deadline was end of December, but various reasons pushed me to delay for the first half of January

- To continue to offer to my readers interesting articles and analysis on the top issues of foreign affairs, by regular posts and freelance articles

- To expand the area of expertise and knowledge and to get in touch with other people interested in the same topics

“Khodorkovsky is the name of the next Russian president”

2010-12-27T08:24:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia//Mikhail Khodorkovsky

Will the Russian oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his partner, Platon Lebedev spend another 14 years in prison? They have been accused, according to a verdict announced today, of stealing some $25bn (£16bn) worth of oil - or practically all the oil that their company, Yukos, produced between 1998-2000, and all the oil it exported between 2000-03, and then laundering the proceeds. Both of them already spent seven years behind bars.

The independent observers are considering the sentence as a protection took by the current duo from Kremlin Medvedev and Putin, for keeping their power for another mandate. The next presidential elections are expected in 2012.

Khodorkovsky’s lawyers announced that he will appeal the verdict.

The decision was not a surprise, and Vladimir Putin spoke in a recent interview in support of a lengthy prison sentence. He reaffirmed that Khodorkovsky is a proven criminal and "should sit in jail", a statement denounced by critics as interference in the trial. In a country as Russia, where justice and judges are so fragile, such statements were translated as a hint for the decision expected in the court. And, of course, Putin is not alone in his “good wishes” for the oil tycoon.

"I am ready to die in jail," Khodorkovsjy said in his last word to the court in November, while strongly reiterating his innocence. “No one believes an innocent verdict in the Yukos case is possible in a Moscow court,” he said on another occasion.

Today, during the lecture of his verdict, he was reading a book.

How will affect this decision the public opinion ? Only 13% of those polled in September by Levada Center said they believed the charges, down from 29% in February. (Roughly twice as many, 24%, said they did not believe the charges.) There were protests today, held against the decision, but the probability to turn this case into an Achilles’ heel for the current power is not likely to occur.

But, once free, Khodorkovsky might represent a powerful brand for a fragile and incoherent sometimes opposition and Russian voices on Twitter indicated him as the possible next president. With the condition to let him free! In May 2010, former primer minister and current opposition leader Kasyanov said the new charges against Khodorkovsky were ludicrous and politically motivated. He said that Putin, while president, had been angered by Khodorkovsky's financial support for the Communist Party, liberal Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces.

From prison, he is having a very active intellectual life and continue to be present for the Russian public opinion. The political transformation of Khodorkovsky is cited in many of his writings from prison. On Oct. 26, 2009, published a response to Dmitri Medvedev's "Forward, Russia!" article in Vedomosti, arguing that "authoritarianism in its current Russian form does not meet many key humanitarian requirements customary for any country that wishes to consider itself modern and European."

On 28 January 2010, Khodorkovsky authored an opinion article in the New York Times and International Herald Tribune, which argued that "Russia must make a historic choice. Either we turn back from the dead end toward which we have been heading in recent years — and we do it soon — or else we continue in this direction and Russia in its current form simply ceases to exist."

On 3 March 2010, he wrote an article in Nezavisimaya Gazeta about the "conveyor belt" of Russian justice. In this article, he warns that "siloviki conveyor belt, which has undermined justice is truly the gravedigger of modern Russian statehood. Because it turns many thousands of the country's most active, sensible and independent citizens against this statehood - with enviable regularity."

Who is the most wanted man?

Khodorkovsky, born in 1963 with a Jewish father and a non-Jewish mother, grew up in an ordinary Soviet family in a two-room apartment in Moscow. He became deputy head of Komsomol (the Communist Youth League) at his university, the Mendeleev Moscow Institute of Chemistry and Technology, where he graduated in chemical engineering in 1986, getting into the ranks of communist apparatchiks.

After perestroika started, Khodorkovsky used his connections within the communist structures to gain a foothold in the developing free market. He used the help of some powerful people to start his business activities under the cover of Komsomol. Friendship with another Komsomol leader Alexey Golubovich helped him greatly in his further success, since Golubovich's parents held top positions in the State Bank of the USSR.

With partners from Komsomol, and technically operating under its authority, Khodorkovsky opened his first business in 1986, a private café. In 1987 they opened a "Center for Scientific and Technical Creativity of the Youth" (which eventually allowed him to found the bank Menatep). In addition to importing and reselling computers, the "scientific" center was involved in trading a wide range of other products; French brandy, Swiss vodka. It is alleged that these goods were mostly counterfeit: "Swiss" vodka was produced in Poland, and the brandy was not French.

By 1988, he had built an import-export business with a turnover of 80 million rubles a year (about $10 million USD). Armed with cash from his business operations, Khodorkovsky and his partners used their international connections to obtain a banking licence to create Bank Menatep in 1989. As one of Russia's first privately owned banks, Menatep expanded quickly, by using most of the deposits raised to finance Khodorkovsky's successful import-export operations.

Bank Menatep

Khodorkovsky also became a philanthropist, whose efforts include the provision of internet-training centres for teachers, a forum for the discussion by journalists of reform and democracy, and the establishment of foundations which finance archaeological digs, cultural exchanges, summer camps for children and a boarding school for orphans. .

In April 2003, he announced that Yukos would merge with Sibneft, creating an oil company with reserves equal to those of Western petroleum multinationals. Khodorkovsky has been reported to be negotiating with ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco about them taking a large stake in Yukos. Sibneft was created in 1995, at the suggestion of Boris Berezovsky, comprising some of the most valuable assets of a state-owned oil company. In a controversial auction process, Berezovsky acquired 50% of the company at what most agree was a very low price.

When Berezovsky had a confrontation with Putin, and felt compelled to leave Russia for London (where he was granted asylum) he assigned his shares in Sibneft to Roman Abramovich. Abramovich subsequently agreed to the merger.

With 19.5 billion barrels (3 km³) of oil and gas, the merged entity would have owned the second-largest oil and gas reserves in the world after ExxonMobil and would have been the fourth largest in the world in terms of production, pumping 2.3 million barrels (370,000 m³) of crude a day. However, the merger had been recalled by the shareholders of Sibneft after the arrest of Khodorkovsky.

The hunt

In early July 2003, Platon Lebedev, a Khodorkovsky partner and second largest shareholder in Yukos, was arrested on suspicion of illegally acquiring a stake in a state-owned fertiliser firm, Apatit, in 1994. The arrest was followed by investigations into taxation returns filed by Yukos, and a delay to the antitrust commission's approval for its merger with Sibneft.

Khodorkovsky was himself arrested in October 2003, charged with fraud and tax evasion. The Russian Prosecutor General's Office claims Khodorkovsky and his associates cost the state more than $1 billion in lost revenues.

Subsequent to Khodorkovsky's arrest, Leonid Nevzlin gained a controlling stake in Yukos when Khodorkovsky handed him a 60% share in the holding company that controlled the firm. Nevzlin is himself now wanted in Russia and has since fled to Israel.

On 31 March 2009, a new trial of Khodorkovsky and Lebedev began in Moscow for fresh charges on embezzlement and money laundering. The two men face up to 22 more years in prison. Both of them pleaded non guilty and denounce vague accusations.

Initially news of Khodorkovsky's arrest had a significant effect on the share price of Yukos. The Moscow stock market was closed for the first time ever for an hour in order to assure stable trading as prices collapsed. Russia's currency, the ruble, was also hit as some foreign investors questioned the stability of the Russian market. Media reaction in Moscow was almost universally negative in blanket coverage, some of the more enthusiastic pro-business press discussed the end of capitalism, while even the government-owned press criticised the "absurd" method of Khodorkovsky's arrest.

Yukos moved quickly to replace Khodorkovsky with Russian born U.S. citizen Simon Kukes. Simon Kukes, who became the CEO of Yukos, was already an experienced oil executive.

A week after the arrest, the Prosecutor-General froze Khodorkovsky's shares in Yukos to prevent Khodorkovsky from selling his shares although he retains all his rights to vote the shares and to receive dividends. In 2003, his shares in Yukos passed to Jacob Rothschild under a deal they concluded prior to Khodorkovsky's arrest.

Foreign support

The U.S. State Department said the arrest "raised a number of concerns over the arbitrary use of the judicial system" and was likely to be very damaging to foreign investment in Russia, as it appeared there were "selective" prosecutions occurring against Yukos officials but not against others.

Khodorkovsky has received a high level of independent third party support from groups and individuals who believe the process, charges, and two trials against him are politically motivated. On Nov. 29, 2004, The Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) Committee on Legal Affairs and Human Rights published a report which concluded: "The Assembly considers that the circumstances of the arrest and prosecution of leading Yukos executives suggest that the interest of the State’s action in these cases goes beyond the mere pursuit of criminal justice, to include such elements as to weaken an outspoken political opponent, to intimidate other wealthy individuals and to regain control of strategic economic assets."

In June 2009, the Council of Europe published a report which criticized the Russian government's handling of the Yukos case, entitled "Allegations of Politically Motivated Abuses of the Criminal Justice System in Council of Europe Member States".

Statements of support for Khodorkovsky and criticism of the state's persecution have been passed by the Italian Parliament, the German Bundestag, and the U.S. House of Representatives, among many other official bodies. Recently, a group of intellectuals pledged for his release.

Is this any chance for a change?

A new down for Kosovo?

2010-12-27T07:49:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia//Hashim Thaci

Kosovo elected the members of the legislative on December 12^th, for the first time since the declaration of independence in 2008, but the ways in which the electoral process was organized and held is raising serious questions regarding the accuracy and reliability of the vote.

According to the results, Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci's Democratic Party of Kosovo won more than 33 percent of the vote in a field of 29 parties. The leading opposition party, the Democratic League of Kosovo, garnered over 23 percent, while the Self-Determination Movement ran third with just over 12 percent. Prime Minister Thaci now has about 90 days to form a government.

Independent observers were present at polling stations throughout Kosovo and called the voting process largely "effective and efficient," though there were some irregularities during the vote count in several polling locations. American Ambassador to Kosovo Christopher Dell observed 17 polling stations, including in Srbica, where he noted that the ballots in the box exceeded the number of signatures in the voters' book. The U.S. urges the Kosovo elections commission to address the few serious irregularities that occurred. The United States also regrets the atmosphere of threats, intimidation, and violence from Serbian sources directed for weeks against Kosovo Serbs in northern Kosovo that prevented many there from exercising their democratic rights.

In 2008, the majority Muslim and ethnic Albanian territory of Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia. Seventy-two countries, including the United States and most of its NATO allies, recognize Kosovo's independence. Serbia, Rusia and Spain are among the most notable exceptions.

Shortly after the vote, the US State Department, considered the elections “a significant milestone in the development of their multi ethnic democracy”. Adding: “Kosovo now faces a test as the votes are counted. Kosovo’s institutions must demonstrate to the public that they’re prepared to defend the integrity of the vote. And we call on Kosovo’s authorities to take the required actions to address irregularities, process complaints and appeals fairly, as well as ensure that the final results of Kosovo’s elections accurately reflect the voters’ intent”.

What it is next? Beyond the political and ethnic instability, the country needs reliable and transparent institutions. A corruption widespread at all levels, including the prime-minister, accused recently of being part of a regional ring trading organs.

The lessons of Kosovo might be the lessons of any country who is first declaring its independence and after is trying to realize what to do and, most importantly, with whom. The national Romanticism is far away and we are soon at the end of the first decade of 2000.

With Serbia getting closer to the EU, many Kosovars might decide that the direct economic advantages and the freedom of working and travelling in the European Union is more advantageous instead of living in a no man's land rotted by institutional incapacity.

Being Taiwanese

2010-12-26T23:59:00.000-08:00

http://www.economist.com/node/3535195?fsrc=scn/tw/te/ar/taiwanese

Hizballah Fears 'Qaeda' Type Attacks from Lebanese Sunnis

2010-12-26T11:22:00.000-08:00

Hizballah Fears 'Qaeda' Type Attacks from Lebanese Sunnis

Writing about foreign policy

2010-12-21T04:26:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia//Looks a bit like my library...

As I am encouraging myself every single day to progress with my two books that I am scheduled to finish until the end of 2010, I am thinking a lot (instead of writing, to be precise) about what are the keys of writing successful books in foreign affairs? Another question will be how do you define success as a writer? Reaching the right audience? A high number of copies sold? Favorable reviews? Interest fro the media? An open door for being included in an exclusive list of experts, including for hunting a governmental position? Or, as you are presenting inside tips, a confirmation of a professional authority?

Here are a couple of the main hints I was thinking about frequently, randomly chose, but from my point of view, of equal importance:

- The relevance of the subject – A book treating about a hot subject in the media will be more likely preferred to one treating about events that took place hundreds of years ago. In the same time, the way in which you are presenting the fact – connecting the dots for a revealing new faces of an old story, is relevant for increasing the interest for your work.

- The style has to be very up to the point, with the basic material organized in a very smart way. For example, as you do not intent to write a history book, instead of making an enumeration of various events and data, try to offer interpretations and new angles of evaluation.

- Originality is a very important asset for any kind of quality writing. Without becoming a yellow journalist, try to reveal secrets behind-the-scene – family connections, interviews, unknown diplomatic games.

- Be personal: share your own experiences, what you witnessed, and your direct involvement in the issue (unless you are not in danger to miss your security clearance).

- The style should be journalistic, characterized by clarity, simplicity! Use quotes and documented information, checked from at least three sources.

- The documentation need to be serious and checked over and over again. You don’t need to write novels, just say the essential even it is about writing the history of a country in 100 pages. As we already said, concision and clarity are basics qualities.

- Don’t neglect the aesthetics. Find an interesting cover and always add pictures and maps for explanations.

- Send the book for preview and review before the final print. Maybe you will be able to get some interesting feedback and to include it in your final revised version. Tease your Twitter followers or your Facebook fans and friends. You will never know when a good idea will jump on your way!

But the question is why a book about foreign affairs had to be really popular? Otherwise, we have the thrillers, the books with spies and other miraculous beings (one of them I am reading right now, for a possible documentation on writing a book with a similar subject, once retired).

As for me, I want to write things I am interested to and to present them in a way that I could contribute, even with 0.001% to change something. A perspective, a way of thinking, a misunderstanding.

Europe: The New Plan | STRATFOR

2010-12-21T03:32:00.000-08:00

Europe: The New Plan | STRATFOR

Dispatch: Post-election Violence in Cote d'Ivoire | STRATFOR

2010-12-20T15:26:00.000-08:00

Dispatch: Post-election Violence in Cote d'Ivoire | STRATFOR

North Korea Holds China Hostage - Newsweek

2010-12-20T14:49:00.000-08:00

North Korea Holds China Hostage - Newsweek

Weekly Analysis: Bekaa Valley: The dangerous no man’s land

2010-12-19T06:30:00.000-08:00

Source: http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/asia/lb.htm

A small region might change the configuration of a whole region. It may fuel a conflict or change the local and regional balance. For today, we'll focus on one of the most dynamic and impredictable - in both bad and good sense - area from the Middle East: Bekaa Valley.

Geography

Beqaa (Arabic: البقاع, "valley"; Lebanese: [bʔaːʕ]; also transliterated as Bekaa, Biqâ‘ or Becaa) is a fertile valley in East Lebanon. For the Romans, it was a major agricultural source, and today it remains Lebanon’s most important farming region.

It is located about 30 km (19 miles) East of Beirut, and situated between the Mount Lebanon to the West and the Anti-Lebanon Mountains to the Wast. It forms the Northeastern most extension of the Great Rift Valley, which stretches from Syria through the Red Sea into Africa. Beqaa Valley is about 120 km (about 75 miles) in length and has an average width of about 16 km (about 10 miles). It has a Mediterranean climate of wet, often snowy winters and dry, warm summers. The region receives limited rainfall, particularly in the north, because Mount Lebanon creates a rain shadow that blocks precipitation coming from the sea.

When the region was part of the Roman Empire, the Beqaa Valley served as a source of grain for the Roman provinces of the Levant. Today the valley makes up 40 percent of Lebanon's arable land. The Northern end of the valley, with its scarce rainfall and less fertile soils, is used primarily as grazing land by pastoral nomads, mostly migrants from the Syrian Desert. Farther south, more fertile soils support crops of wheat, corn, cotton, and vegetables, with vineyards and orchards centered around Zahlé. The valley also produces hashish and cultivates opium poppies, which are exported as part of the illegal drug trade. Since 1957 the Litani hydroelectricity project—a series of canals and a dam located at Lake Qaraoun in the southern end of the valley—has improved irrigation to farms in Beqaa Valley.

The Beqaa Valley is home to Lebanon's famous vineyards and wineries. Wine making is a tradition that goes back 6000 years in Lebanon. With an average altitude of 1.000 m above sea level, the valley's climate is very suitable to vineyards. Abundant winter rain and much sunshine in the summer helps the grapes ripen easily. There are more than a dozen wineries in the Beqaa Valley, producing over six million bottles a year.

The politics, geopolitics and opium

But the economic and geographical advantages are not translated in benefits in the plan of the politics. The place remains a frequent playground for confrontation between clans and various supporters and opposants of the government. Sunni and Shi’a are very often part of an arm conflict. Very often, the clashes are mirroring the confrontations taking place in Beirut.

Drugs have a long tradition in the Bekaa Valley, from the days of the Roman Empire until today cultivators and tribal drug lords working with militias built up a thriving cannabis trade. During the Lebanese civil war, cannabis cultivation was a major source of income in the Bekaa valley, where most of the country's hashish and opium was produced, a multi-billion-dollar industry fueling the agricultural sector as well as political factions and organized crime. The trade collapsed during the worldwide crackdown on narcotics led by the United States in the early 1990s. Under pressure from the U.S. State Department, the occupying Syrian Army plowed up the Bekaa's cannabis fields and sprayed them with poison. Since the mid 1990s, the culture and production of drugs in the Bekaa valley has been in steady decline, by 2002 an estimated 2,500 hectares of cannabis were limited to the extreme north of the valley, where government presence remains minimal. Every year since 2001 the Lebanese army plows cannabis fields in an effort to destroy the crops before harvest, it is estimated that this action eliminates no more than 30% of overall crops. Although important during the civil war, opium cultivation has become marginal, dropping from an estimated 30 metric tonnes per year in 1983 to negligible amounts in 2004.

Due to increasing political unrest that weakened the central Lebanese government during 2006 Lebanon War and 2007 (Opposition boycott of the government) and due to the lack of viable alternatives (U.N. promises of irrigation projects and alternative crop subsidies that never materialised) drug cultivation and production have significantly increased, but remains a fraction of civil war era production and limited north of the Town of Baalbek, where the rule of tribal law protecting armed families is still strong.

Strategy

This region is considered very important for the balance of strategic interest in the region and a test for various military and geopolitical settings. It is still considered as playing an important role in the battle against Hizbullah militias.

From the strategical point of view, the place continue play a significant role in the military and political configuration of the region. In Bekaa Valley took place during the 1982 war an important battle considered an important element in the recent history of the military warfare.

The interest and challenge are determined by the limited if any authority of the central government over this area and the risks of widespreaded instability. For a while, here used to be a PKK training camp, to which Syria contributed largely. It is a no ‘man’s land used for drug trafficking, a source of black money for various terrorist activities.

What future for the region? Both easy and difficult to predict. The hardest way is for the Lebanese people to decide that they don't want to fully use of their present and future and to support political decisions in the advantage of their independence. Nobody else can do this.

Dispatch: Presidential Elections in Belarus | STRATFOR

2010-12-15T15:31:00.000-08:00

Dispatch: Presidential Elections in Belarus | STRATFOR

Bosnia, Albania Celebrate EU Visa Lifting

2010-12-15T14:45:00.000-08:00

Chess moves in Tehran

2010-12-15T04:00:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia//Ahmadinejad at Natanz, 2008

On 13 December 2010, Ahmadinejad dismisses Manouchehr Mottaki for (yet) unknown reasons and appointed Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Agency, in an acting capacity. Mottaki has been the Foreign Minister of Iran since 24 August 2005. He is the only Minister who was not replaced in Ahmadinejad's Cabinet after Ahmadinejad's reelection. Salehi will be Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs until Ahmadinejad nominates a person to Parliament for this post. No reasons were given for the surprise move, but several Iranian newspapers on Tuesday linked it to disagreements between Ahmadinejad and Mottaki over foreign policy, as it can be a show of power from the part of the president.

Foreign and defense policy -- particularly relating to Iran's sensitive uranium-enrichment work -- is widely seen as the province of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with the Foreign Ministry playing a secondary role.

The disagreement

Mottaki, a career diplomat and former ambassador to Turkey, was sacked while in Senegal on an official visit. Several conservative papers linked the sacking to a dispute between Mottaki and Ahmadinejad over "parallel diplomacy," which flared up in summer after the president named his close aides as special envoys in the region. Ahmadinejad backed down only after Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei intervened.

"The president put an end to disagreement with the foreign minister," conservative newspaper Qods said, adding that Ahmadinejad's decision on envoys had drawn Mottaki's "harsh reaction." "Earthquake in foreign ministry" was the headline of Khabar newspaper, which is close to Ahmadinejad's rival if not enemy no.1, parliament speaker Ali Larijani. Mottaki was considered a close confidant of Larijani, whose presidential campaign in 2005 he has managed. "Ahmadinejad knows well that Salehi appeals to the West for his moderate views," Khabar said, predicting that the atomic chief will be "one of the managers to form a new circle in the government although he is not ideologically linked with the president." Hossein Shariatmadari, editor in chief of the staunchly conservative Kayhan newspaper and a man personally appointed by Khamenei, condemned Mottaki's firing as an "open insult." Mottaki's departure removes "the last remaining traditional conservative in the cabinet", according to Ebtekar newspaper

Earlier this month, at a security meeting in neighbouring Bahrain, Mottaki hailed as a "step forward" remarks by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Iran is entitled to a peaceful nuclear energy programme but only once it has demonstrated it can carry it out in a responsible manner. His comments appeared to cut across the Islamic republic's official position, repeated almost daily, that its enrichment of uranium is non-negotiable.

There were many media reports outlining that the move might be a public message of the president regarding his support from the Supreme Leader. But it might be in the same time a message sent publicly to the Supreme Leader regarding his support among diplomats, intelligence and his Revolutionary Guards. And the diplomatic service, in every totalitarian state, is one of the most exposed to be infiltrated and used for propagandistic and political aims.

Who is Ali Akbar Salehi

He was born on 7 July 1949 in Karbala, Iraq when his family was in Iraq for a religious visit. He earned a BSc from the American University of Beirut and, in 1977, a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, which he earned in 1977. Salehi is Associate Professor and Chancellor of Sharif University of Technology and a member of the Academy of Sciences of Iran and the International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Italy.

He was Chancellor of Sharif University of Technology from 1982 to 1985 and once again in 1989 to 1993.

Ali Akbar Salehi was appointed as Permanent Representative of Iran to International Atomic Energy Agency by President Mohammad Khatami in 13 March 1997 and was in post until 22 August 2005 for more than eight years He was reappointed in this position by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on 16 July 2009, after a surprise resignation of Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, the father of the nation’s nuclear program. He was close to Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a powerful cleric and former president who is a bitter rival of the president. Aghazadeh was among a group of pro-Rafsanjani officials who formed a political party, Kargozaran, in the early 1990s.

There have also been hints of behind-the-scenes differences between Aghazadeh and Ahmadinejad's energy minister over the planned opening of Iran's first nuclear plan at Bushehr, whose opening has repeatedly been delayed.

On 18 December 2003, under former reformist president Mohammad Khatami, Salehi signed the Additional Protocol to the safeguard agreement, on behalf of Iran that enabled IAEA inspectors to search Iranian nuclear facilities without notice and without restriction. He was replaced by Ali Asghar Soltanieh. He was also Deputy Secretary-General of Organisation of the Islamic Conference under Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu from 2007 to 2009. He resigned in July 2009 when was appointed as Head of AEAI.

"Iran's major international policies are defined in higher levels and the foreign ministry executes these policies. We will not see any changes in our basic policies," foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said at his weekly briefing. "I don't think there will be any changes in the nuclear policy and the talks" with world powers over Iran's nuclear programme, he said.

“Considering your commitment, knowledge, and valued expertise, and in accordance with Article 135 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and based on this decree, you are appointed as acting foreign minister,” read the presidential directive appointing Salehi to the new post.

The next atomic steps

Salehi was replaced as head of Iran's Nuclear Power Plants Production and Development Company by the acting deputy of the country's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Ahmadian. He is university professor and served in different administrative posts, including the position as the country's deputy energy minister Ahmadian was also the Managing Director of Atomic Energy Production and Development Company -- the Iranian contractor for the Bushehr Atomic Power Plant Construction agreement.

Mottaki’s sacking came just days after Iran held crunch talks in Geneva on December 6 and 7 with world powers over its controversial nuclear dossier.

Further talks are scheduled for next month in Iran's neighbour Turkey despite clear differences at the end of Geneva meeting between Iran and the group of P5+1 -- Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.

Salehi introduced the latest progresses in terms of atomic energy in an intervention for Al Jazeera, February 2010 uttering warnings against those who will oppose Iran’s program. As usual, it is difficult to say how is the “moderate” and who is the “hawk”, as the loyalties are wavering and opened to survival repositionings.

The messages sent by know are not very clear and maybe the next weeks will bring more clarity about the current political chessboard in Iran.

Taking Stock of WikiLeaks | STRATFOR

2010-12-14T06:00:00.000-08:00

Taking Stock of WikiLeaks | STRATFOR

Chatham House - Media - Expert Comment - The Real Debate at the Heart of Europe’s Middle East Policy

2010-12-14T04:48:00.000-08:00

Chatham House - Media - Expert Comment - The Real Debate at the Heart of Europe’s Middle East Policy

Dispatch: Intersection of Iranian Domestic and Foreign Policies | STRATFOR

2010-12-13T15:33:00.000-08:00

Dispatch: Intersection of Iranian Domestic and Foreign Policies | STRATFOR

Book review: Longitudes and attitudes

2010-12-12T16:08:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia/Thomas Friedman

At the very beginning of my career in the domain of foreign affairs, reading Thomas Friedman's opinions was part of my daily introductory lessons. The same role was played by his books, From Beirut to Jerusalem or The World is Flat.
Beyond the careful explanation of various global and regional contexts and their specific problems, what I was admiring at him was what I called the meaningful way of selecting ideas and the ways in which he was putting into balance various pro and con arguments. Every affirmation was offering the potential for a change of the current situation and aqt the end of his 700-word opinion, I was acquiring a different perception.

I met again some of those short lessons reading Longitudes and Attitudes. Exploring the World before and after September 11 - – a collection of articles dedicated to the US security, the Middle East and the American life post 9/11.

But my eyes and understanding are completely different. I continue to read his analysis with a lot of envy for the style and vocabulary, but I feel very often the desire of the journalist aiming to be considered too as a potential power-broker. And very often he, as other media stars from the US are playing this role. The question is what are the consequences of such a shift for the journalism.
In his case, is the idea of insisting over and over again the same ideas - the main messages from the politicians' discourses - even the situations are changing as well as the actors. Plus, this is the idea of not risking to assume points of view agains the main waves of the opinion. As it is the case for the situation of the settlements in Jerusalem: this is the general trend, to accuse the Israeli governments for this. But, are we talking about the same situation from a year to another? And, in fact, what is the context? The journalism for the masses is tempted to avoid going into too much details, following the pattern familiar to the politicians.
But there are in this book a couple of ideas that deserve to be developed and discussed over and over again: as the fact that September 11 was an attack against the multicultural society of America and not a failure of intelligence but of imagination; the lack of a Manhattan project aimed to destroy terrorism; the lack of any society project from the part of terrorists as Bin Laden; the need for encouraging the discussion within Islam and to create the prospects for a deep reform of some Arab/Muslim states (mostly in the Saudi Arabia); US security dilemmas after 11/9. In some pieces the world of foreign affairs and security is the pretext for a healthy laugh to tears - as it is the case of the idea of the Naked Air company, whose passengers would fly naked and will not give any chance to religious fundamentalists to put into practice their evil plans (pp. 96-97).

A very interesting information I forgot about was the relative support that US had in some Iranian circles shortly after 11/9 and the missed opportunity of the George W. Bush administration.

The book it is an interesting diary of the foreign affairs world and a good reference for those aspiring for being good writers in the domain of the international relations. But, beyond your admiration, you have to continue using your brain and to be able to offer your own arguments and points of view.

A possible explanation of the Latin American moves

2010-12-12T03:35:00.000-08:00

from the Jerusalem Post, by Caroline Glick.
The trends were already there, our understanding of the dangers was missing.

Assange arrested in the UK

2010-12-07T02:52:00.000-08:00

by the British Police. I deeply hope he will not be turned into a e-Che Guevara.

Latin America? What's going on?

2010-12-06T09:56:00.000-08:00

After Brazil and Uruguay, Argentina announced today the recognition of the "Palestinian state". A "state" without institutions, elites and where the elected rulers are Hamas.

What is the explanation? The post-WWII and post-Cold War headaches ? And, most importantly, will it be other states doing the same - Venezuela, Peru, Colombia? Is this move aimed to press an eventual discussion in the UN and, even more than that? I can understand the move, but the costs will be impressive for the whole region.

Julian Assange - live @ The Guardian

2010-12-03T09:27:00.000-08:00

The most wanted editor of Wikileaks answered live the questions addressed by The Guardian's readers. I am still treating the whole story with the huge benefit of doubt. But will continue the lecture of the Wikis.

Some wikis

2010-11-29T08:06:00.000-08:00

Over the afternoon coffee, I spent some time reading a couple of cables from the too much praised Wikis:

The myth of the united Middle East and Mubarak's advice to John Kerry: don't leave Iraq now !
The political negotiations in Tel Aviv, after the elections and the cronic incapacity of the Palestinians to inspire credibility
The nuclear tactics of Iran
Erdogan simply hates Israel
The intricate and personal relationships of the Israeli minister of Foreign Affairs, Avigdor Lieberman and his friends from Moscow
Sending American advices to Hamas via Qatar

On Wikis

2010-11-29T00:29:00.000-08:00

For the moment, a couple of links with the hottest feed-backs and information about the releases:

NYTimes interactive and the explanation

The round-up story
Dealing with gossips - where is the relevance for the public interest?
Are we interested about anything but nothing?
Investigations in Australia
Israel in the cables

I am off for the moment, for reading some Wikis, of course.

Short break

2010-11-27T11:56:00.000-08:00

For a couple of days I've been a bit focused on other interesting and challenging writing and editing projects. As I have a very personal deadline for finishing my book on diplomacy and 2.0, here will be my favorite playground for the next 30 days. Stay tunned for charming and smart analysis of foreign affairs!

New WikiLeaks to be released soon!

2010-11-27T11:53:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia

The diplomats all over the world are on high level of alert these days, preparing for the release of 3 million documents of WikiLeaks. For the representatives of the institutions, the revelations will be harmful, with possible consequences, as it happened in the case of Iraq and Afghanistan, on the general security environment in the area. For the "civil society" representatives, it is a fight won in the support of transparency and will offer them the basis for requesting more accountable government.

For the moment, I am waiting to read and analyse myself - if enough time - the documents. I am curious what new information will be revealed, for example, in the case of Libya (most specific, the Lockerbie issue) or what will find out more about the negotiations in the Middle East. And this is a matter of pure curiosity.

As equally pure curiosity is involved when I am thinking about the ways in which (not fully mysterious given the intense information process taking place in the last days between Washington and the capital cities of important allies) those documents reached and continue to reach the open space of the "leaks". I agree that governments should be accountable for their decisions in the front of the public opinion. But, in the same time, I don't think that, if you publish million of documents on the web you contribute to increase the public awareness about a certain situation. Most part of the people will not have time to read them all, and even more will not be able to read them correctly. WikiLeaks is gaining popularity but this is all. From the point of view of the world, not too much.

Use and misuse of social media

2010-11-11T06:34:00.000-08:00

Image via Wikipedia

The use and abuse of Twitter and other social media tools, with some examples from the campaign of the last mid-term elections, in The Atlantic. This article was a good wake-up emergency call reminding me that I am very much beyond my working schedule for my book about politics, diplomacy and 2.0. Shame on me...

Writing about Tea Party

2010-11-11T03:48:00.000-08:00

This is the first comprehensive book about the Tea Party movement, written by somebody involved directly in the whole phenomenon. I registered for receiving a preview, so I am not yet qualified to say more about it. Biased or not, supporters or not of the Tea Party, for somebody interested in the current trends in American politics, we have to read it and be able to analyse it critically.

The brother Facebook

2010-11-06T08:22:00.000-07:00

Image via Wikipedia

The Islamist alternative to Facebook: Ikhwan Book, the "book" of Muslim Brotherhood, the radical religious opposition banned in Egypt, with the logo "One world unites us".

Another sad week for the human rights

2010-11-06T04:15:00.000-07:00

Ai Weiwei - Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Some outlines:

Ai Weiwei, Chinese artist and activist was confined to house arrest in Beijing, preventing him to go to Shanghai, were he expected to take part to an event this Sunday marking the decision of authorities to destroy his art studio.

The fate of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the woman condemned to stoning in Iran, is still unknown.

Narsin Sotoudeh, the proeminent Iranian lawyer who defended members of the opposition and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi, is on hunger strike. This September, she was arrested by the Iranian authorities under the accusation of "acting against the national security".

Cuba, Iran and North Korea, honorable members of the UN Human Rights Council, harshly criticized human rights records in the United States.

It is already enough for one single week.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt, on Internet and foreign policy

2010-11-04T16:14:00.000-07:00

Focus of the day: Tea Party – What it’s behind a cup of American tea

2010-11-03T08:58:00.000-07:00

Image via Wikipedia

Grass-roots movement or political protest? A historical legacy of the American history reevaluated or successful brand used symbolically to solve political contradiction?

Grass-roots movement or political protest? A historical legacy of the American history reevaluated or successful brand used symbolically to solve political contradiction?

The beginnings

The name "Tea Party" refered to the Boston Tea Party, a direct action started by colonists in Boston from the then British colony of Massachusetts, against the British government. On December 16, 1773, after officials from here refused to return three shiploads of taxed tea to Britain, a group of colonists boarded the ships and destroyed the tea by throwing it into Boston Harbor.

The action was the latest manifestation of a resistance movement throughout British America against the Tea Act, passed by the British Parliament in 1773, considered a violation of the right to be taxed only by the own elected representatives.

The Boston Tea Party was a key event in the growth of the American Revolution, who began near Boston in 1775.

The never ending revolution(s)

The label Tea Party has often been applied to other political protests, with different effects and political agendas. When Mohandas K. Gandhi led a mass burning of Indian registration cards in South Africa in 1908, a British newspaper compared the event to the Boston Tea Party. At the beginning of November 2010, representatives of Israeli Likud created a „tea party“ meeting protesting theagainst the policies of president Barack Obama. In Australia, the T.E.A. Party, self-assessed as a non-political movement, encloses the acronym: “Tax Enough Already”.

American activists from a variety of political viewpoints have invoked the Tea Party as a symbol of protest, but the senses differed of the original understanding. In 1973, on the 200th anniversary of the Tea Party, a mass meeting at Faneuil Hall called for the impeachment of President Richard Nixon and protested oil companies in the ongoing oil crisis. Afterwards, protesters boarded a replica ship in Boston Harbor, hanged Nixon in effigy, and dumped several empty oil drums into the harbor.

In 2006, a libertarian political party called the "Boston Tea Party" was founded, but without a significant further political involvement. In 2007, the Republican Ron Paul held a „Tea Party”on the 234th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party, and raised the record sum of $6.04 million in 24 hours.

In early 2009, a series of citizen gatherings called "Tea Parties" began to protest recent increases in government spending, particularly in President Obama's budget and economic stimulus package.

The new parties

On January 19, 2009, Graham Makohoniuk, a part-time trader and a member of Ticker Forum, posted a casual invitation on the market-ticker.org forums to "Mail a tea bag to congress and to Senate". Forum moderator, Stephanie Jasky helped organize the group and worked to "get it to go viral." Jasky is also the founder and director of FedUpUSA - a fiscally conservative, non-partisan activist group whose members describe themselves as "a group of investors" who sprung out of the market-ticker.org forums and previously held DC protests in 2008.

The founder of market-ticker.org, Karl Denninger (stock trader and former CEO), published his own write-up on the proposed protest, titled "Tea Party February 1st?," which was posted in direct response to President Obama's inauguration occurring on the same day, and railed against the bailouts, the US national debt and "the fraud and abuse in our banking and financial system" which included the predatory lending practices currently at the center of the home mortgage foreclosure crisis. By February 1, the idea had spread among conservative and libertarian-oriented blogs, forums, websites and through a viral email campaign.

On February 11, talk radio host and Fox Business Network anchor Dave Ramsey appeared on Fox and Friends, waving tea bags and saying "It's time for a Tea Party." He was on the show criticizing the newly confirmed Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner, who had outlined his plan to use the $300 billion or so dollars remaining in the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds. He intended to use $50 billion for foreclosure mitigation and use the rest to help fund private investors to buy toxic assets from banks.

New York Times reporter Kate Zernike, reports that some within the Tea Party credit Seattle blogger and conservative activist Keli Carender with organizing the first Tea Party on February 16, 2009. Another article, written by Chris Good of The Atlantic, credits Carender as "one of the first" Tea Party organizers.

The Protests

On February 19, 2009, in a broadcast from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CNBC Business News Network editor Rick Santelli loudly criticized the government plan to refinance mortgages, which had just been announced the day before, as "promoting bad behavior" by "subsidizing losers' mortgages" and raised the possibility of putting together a "Chicago Tea Party in July". A number of the traders and brokers around him cheered on his proposal, to the apparent amusement of the hosts in the studio. It was called "the rant heard round the world". By the next day, guests on Fox News had already begun to mention this new "Tea Party", Fox News, an outpost of support for the Republican Party during Bush administration continuing to devote extensive editorial space to the movement.

In response to Santelli, websites such as ChicagoTeaParty.com, registered in August 2008 by Chicago radio producer Zack Christenson, were live within twelve hours. About 10 hours after Santelli's remarks, reTeaParty.com was bought to coordinate Tea Parties scheduled for July 4, and as of March 4, was reported to be receiving 11,000 visitors a day.

A Facebook page was developed on February 20 the same year calling for Tea Party protests across the country. Group administrators included Eric Odom of the conservative activist group FreedomWorks, and the group was created by Phil Kerpen from the conservative advocacy organization Americans for Prosperity. Soon, the "Nationwide Chicago Tea Party" protest was coordinated across over 40 different cities for February 27, 2009, thus establishing the first national modern Tea Party protest.

Other protests have been held on:

- April 15, 2009 to coincide with the annual U.S. deadline for submitting tax returns, known as Tax Day.

- July 4, 2009 to coincide with Independence Day.

- September 12, 2009 to coincide with the anniversary of the day after the September 11 attacks.

- November 5, 2009 in Washington D.C. to protest the impending Health insurance vote

- March 14–21, 2010 in Washington, D.C. during the final week of debate on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

Reaction to the tea parties included counter-protests expressing support for the Obama administration, and dismissive or mocking media coverage of both the events and its promoters as it was the case with the Rally held October 31, at the National Mall in Washington DC, organized by the media anchor Jon Stewart and comedian Stephen Colbert. This event was organized as a reply to the August 28 rally of the conservative Glenn Beck, held in Washington DC aiming to restore „honor in America” and raise funds for the non-profit Special Operations Warrior Foundation, dedicated to support veterans.

What will be the next party about

The final results of the recent mid-term elections are considered a litmus test of the actions of the tea-party movement by now. Leaders of the movement declared already that their projected midterm election victories should send a strong message: watch out in 2012. "The Republicans need to know, we've done it in 2010. If they don't do the right thing in the next couple of years, it's not a problem. We'll come back in 2012. We'll do it all over again. We'll replace them with people that will uphold [our] principles," said Mark Meckler, co-founder of Tea Party Patriots -- one of the movement's largest groups.

Until the end of the week we will be able to know the overall successes of the Tea Party movement. For me, it is very interesting to observe the passive reaction from the Democratic side, limited rather to humoristic, intellectual appreciations. It might be, perhaps, the confirmation of my old observation, which I have to explain soon in a later post, that the Democrats, when they won the power, were always unable to keep it for too long. On the other hand, I am also curious what changes will be brought in terms of leadership for the Republican side, confronted for the moment with a problematic lack of leadership. We will find, probably, the answer, in the next weeks, after the full evaluation of the elections results.

The New Diplomacy

2010-11-02T06:34:00.001-07:00

It is about time for some serious lectures on foreign affairs. For today, I found Robert W. Tucker's, Woodrow Wilson's New Diplomacy, published in 2004 in the World Policy Journal. A detailed account of the beginning of a new era of the American foreign policy, switching from the isolationism and preponderant interests on home affairs to a wider interest in securing a sanitary belt aimed to promote fundamental rights above local interests.

The Twitter map

2010-11-02T04:53:00.001-07:00

of the mid-term elections.

America votes

2010-11-01T08:14:00.001-07:00

Tuesday, November 2, Americans are asked to vote for 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 37 of the 100 seats in the United States States Senate. At stake there are 38 state and territorial governorships, many state legislatures, four territorial legislatures and numerous state and local races.

The main subjects of interest were the national economic policies and the policies of Obama administration in the area of health care, taxes and deficits.

Here there are a couple of details about the fundraising situation, the media coverage and the main debates by now.

Kurile's heel

2010-11-01T08:06:00.000-07:00

What's the interest of Russia to have tensed relations with Japan, following the latest visit of Russian president to the controversial Kurile Islands? Russia never played one single card and the situation from the Asian continent, confronted with uncertain future in the Korean Peninsula, a China ready to conquer the world and the next visit of president Obama in India, an important piece of the puzzle during the Cold War.

Under the threats of terror

2010-11-01T07:40:00.000-07:00

The week-end started with the failed terrorist attempt in the US and ended with a suicide attack in Istanbul's populated area of Taksim, wounding 32 persons. The main suspect, the separatist PKK Kurdish party denied any involvement.

In the Yemen case, several investigations are currently under deployment, framing the need of an extensive intelligence share between countries aiming to oppose terrorism, the attack being attributed to Al Qaeda operatives. Al Qaeda suicide bombers carried out a series of attacks in Istanbul in November 2003 that killed 62 people and wounded hundreds. Several Islamist militants were arrested last month. But officials have played down the likelihood of Islamist role.

Turkey is a couple of days ahead the 2010 EU Progress Report and is still trying to find a solution regarding the conflict with Cyprus. The geopolitical ambitions and the temptation to become leader in the Muslim world antagonized the country's foreign relations with former partners in the region. Ankara is showing its full disponibility to enter the EU, pledging Turkey's future role in increasing the potential of the organization.

The new president in Brazil: the challenges

2010-11-01T06:55:00.000-07:00

Dilma Roussef, the daughter of a Bulgarian immigrant and a former guerrilla fighter, won the presidential elections in Brazil, a function held by a woman for the first time in the history of this country. A protege of the former president Ignacio Lula da Silva, leader of the Worker's Party, Roussef is trained as an economist and held various position in the local and central government. She is the third woman president in Latin America, after Argentina and Costa Rica, and the ten head of state and government worldwide.

The race was closely watched in Bulgaria, the country of origin of her father that she never visited and whose language don't speak. The complicate geopolitical structure and Brazil's unclear strategy by now are raising several questions regarding the future diplomatic moves of one of the biggest geopolitical players in Latin America. The next steps in foreign policy are yet unknown, and the reactions overseas are confusing for the moment, with different interpretations of the vote, up to the immediate home affairs interests.

Among her priorities, she promised to make gender equality an important project. But, foremost, Roussef is faced with a complicate economic pressure, aiming to offer long-term stability for the market. Former energy minister, she contributed in turning Brazil into an energy giant. But, in the same time, the country is facing severe critics from environmental organizations, criticizing Brazil for the big interest show in developing nuclear capacities.

She will sworn in on January 1st, enough time ahead to start expressing clearer positions in issues regarding home and foreign politics. The discussions for forming the Government are likely to start in the next days.

The last 23 years of terror

2010-10-30T03:15:00.000-07:00

Hamas is receiving a lot of publicity these days. A movement far of being united or acting unitary, given various foreign influences, up to the funding offered, but with a clear focus on terror and intolerance, including against its own Palestinian/Muslim fellows. The opposition to peace process is understandable, as the direct path to their political death. Voices in the Israeli media are pretending that the blockade contributed significantly to the current radicalization and the solution would be to "open" Gaza. Maybe, but what are the risks at stake for the state of Israel, once you don't have the control over the area? A typical Middle Eastern deadlocked situation, when you have to look more broadly and read the smallest details in the overall geopolitical context.

From the journalistic point of view, I have a small observation. Every time there is a conflict where the Israeli Army (IDF) is involved, the foreign media is abounding in critical and moving-to-tears articles about the victims. I didn't see too many - or not at all - critical articles about what this organization represents, about the fact that it is holding hostage since 2006 a soldier, Gilad Shalit, without allowing the international organizations or other third party to offer the normal assistance, about the terrorist threat and the intolerance towards normal standards of human rights. A blindness having its price.

Don't underestimate the terrorism threat

2010-10-30T02:38:00.000-07:00

Key evolutions of a warning:

The white powder on the toner cartridge in the bomb scare Photo: CBS

Oct 3 - The United States and Britain warned their citizens of an increased risk of terrorist attacks in Europe, with Washington saying al Qaeda might target transport infrastructure. Western intelligence sources said militants in hide-outs in northwest Pakistan had been plotting coordinated attacks on European cities.

Oct 5 - French police arrested 12 people in early morning raids the interior minister said were directly linked to a campaign to counter an elevated terrorism threat in Europe. France was on high alert after seven hostages, including five French citizens, were kidnapped by the North African wing of al Qaeda last month.

Oct 5 - The French government warned citizens travelling to Britain to exercise caution due to a very high risk of terrorist action in the country that could target public transport and tourist sites.

Oct 6 - Suspected al Qaeda militants attacked two Western targets in Yemen, firing a rocket at a senior British diplomat's car and killing a Frenchman at a gas and oil installation.

Oct 17 - French Interior Minister Brice Hortefeux said France had been warned by Saudi Arabia that al Qaeda was targeting Europe and especially France.

Oct 27 - A Virginia man who allegedly believed he was helping al Qaeda plan bombings at Washington area Metrorail stations was arrested, the U.S. Justice Department said.

Oct 28 - Britain's top spy, in the first public speech by a serving UK espionage chief, said terrorists might hit the West again "at huge human cost" but nuclear proliferation by states was a more far-reaching danger.

Oct 29 - Security officials in Britain and Dubai intercepted parcel bombs being sent from Yemen to the United States in a "credible terrorist threat," President Barack Obama said.

The Jewish organizations in the area and from the US are under alert.

Several high level meetings are expecting to be held today, analyzing the impact and the emergency measures to be taken immediately.

What do we talk when we are talking about the Middle East

2010-10-29T06:54:00.000-07:00

At the beginning of this week, I had the wonderful occasion to participate to the conference Qantara Conference organized in Berlin, by Deutsche Welle and the German Federal Foreign Office. Under the motto "Troublemaker or facilitator? The role of the media in intercultural dialogue", there were brought together media executives and journalists from the Middle Eastern region or with connections - included family ties - in the area.

It was very interesting to watch the perceptions from both sides of the world. During the Cold War, we had the East versus the West, now the poetry is to use the dichotomy "Middle East versus the West". There are strong connections between the two perceptions, as the Middle East used to be, as Africa, a playground for showing off the geopolitical muscles between US and the Soviet Union.

The general situation of the media in the region is far of being clear: there is no country for free media and the political regimes are imposing their lines without limits - one example is the rule to use anti-Semitic and stereotypical descriptions of the state of Israel. I was familiar with this situation of intensive repression against the critical thinking and serious journalism before attending the conference. But, I was extremely surprised by the position of some journalists originally from the region living in the Western world, as it was the case of Abdelbari Atwan, editor-in-chief of Al Quds Al Arabi (Arab Jerusalem, in English) from London, a town where he lives - as he outlined several times during his interventions - for decades. The cartoon "crisis" was portrayed incessantly as an example of the "hate", "animosity", "misunderstanding" of the Western world towards the cultural sensitivities of the Middle East. But such a presentation in itself is an example of misunderstanding: in the West, media are free and any direct involvement of the state - including by creating codes of conduct against attacking religion, as it was proposed on various occasions during the conference. Hate speech of any kind might be prosecuted - I wondered how nobody asked bluntly about the high volume of anti-Semitism and xenophobia you might read and watch in the Middle Eastern media - but it is very important how and who is setting the terms of the journalistic discourse.

As long as we have to deal with journalists respecting their works and, implicitly, their readers, you don't need laws and censorship. The heritage of the Enlightenment in Western Europe is that the human beings are perfectible through education and culture.

The issues of interest for the journalists from both parts are similar: the social influence of widespread 2.0 world - it was interesting, for example, to discover how in Egypt, the division between Sunni and Shi'a become of public interest following the various debates held on forums, during the war in Iraq, how to educate the public opinion by writing positive news. Each time the discussion was moved at this level, the ethnic and geographic origins don't matter. But, once it was pronounced the word "Palestine" and "Israel", the normality was down. And this is the situation we are facing now.

Case in which, the Western media have to continue to behave professionally, with high concern for check-and-balances, in dealing with the Middle East, including by going through a proper documentation before reporting about the region. There are encouraging examples, as most part of the reports from Spiegel online and Deutsche Welle. But, equally, it is a need for improving connections with the journalists from the region, also by offering them possibilities to understand the critical thinking and the need to separate your inner beliefs from the naked facts. And, talking with people and exchanging ideas is the first step towards a long waited change.

If this conference disappointed me a bit and confirmed my pessimistic prospects for a prosperous, democratic and peaceful Middle East, my optimism was rescued at the end of the week, while watching the interventions at TEDxHolyLand. Palestinian and Israeli women, outperforming in their domains, shared their journeys. When politics are put aside, the future have a sound, other then the sound of the guns. I don't expect too much to be achieved in the area of peace from the part of the politicians, but I truly hope that free minds think alike.

Brainstorming

2010-10-29T06:26:00.001-07:00

As 2010 is about to end, but not yet at its end, it is about time to evaluate, think, measure, look back and plan the future. In 2009, I wanted to publish a book screening the most important events of the year, with publication deadline the beginning of 2010. For various reasons - the procrastination and the very bad time managements had their share here - the plan was postponed from a month to another, despite the careful documentation of the events. The last time I was thinking - but not writing - about publishing this project was probably September. Now, at the end of October, I remembered about this idea and insist to have it done - this time. This will be the writing project for the month of December, as November is fully booked with the project about 2.0 foreign affairs.

For the next week, the competition is open for ideas, suggestions and other inspirational advices about the events to be included in the 2010 foreign affairs diary.

Israeli chess grandmaster takes world record from Iran

2010-10-22T04:27:00.000-07:00

Sports are present very often in our political and international representations. As an example, think about the terrible confrontations at the Olympic Games between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War.

The same logic is available in the case of the new post-Cold War confrontations. But, beyond the national symbolism, there are situations when you have to think about battles of minds and confrontations of ideas. It is why I appreciated the remarks of the new world champion chess grandmaster, representative of the state of Israel: "Hopefully all our wars against Iran will be on the chess board".

New Wikileaks

2010-10-18T02:13:00.000-07:00

Pentagon is carefully, and probably nervously, watching these days Wikileaks, preparing for the release of another 400,000 intelligence files regarding the war in Afghanistan.

It is funny - really funny - to read that a team of 120 people are ready to analyse the documents. I innocently ask myself why they were not ready to prevent such an embarrassing situation. To be continued.

The Spectre of a Multipolar Europe

2010-10-15T16:50:00.001-07:00

an ECFR report

The French seaside resort of Deauville came to prominence in the late 19th century – a time of grand hotels and swanky casinos. It was also a time when Europe was divided up between great powers who each jealously guarded their own little patch of Europe, with individual spheres of influence scratching up against each other. It is therefore a fitting location for a summit meeting involving three of the continents’ perennial great powers – Germany, Russia and France (Monday 18th October) – at a time when Europe is once again becoming a multipolar continent.

Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy are reaching out to Russia because they believe European security is no longer a matter for NATO or the EU alone. They are correct. The United States has signalled that it is less interested in European internal security – not least when President Obama declined to turn up for the twentieth anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. The current order is also dysfunctional, failing to deal with wars in Kosovo and Georgia, recent instability in Kyrgyzstan or several so-called frozen conflicts dotted around the continent. The grand project of expanding EU membership eastwards has faltered of late. Even when – as we at the European Council on Foreign Relations strongly hope – Turkey and the Western Balkans become members of the EU, it is clear that NATO and the EU will never be the main security institutions in Europe, covering all European states. There is therefore a pressing need for Europeans to start rethinking their security. But while the summit has the right agenda, it has the wrong participants.

Russia needs to be at the table. It never accepted the post-Cold War order, and is now strong enough to openly challenge it. It is, however, also open to engagement, and Medvedev himself suggested working towards a new European security treaty a couple of years ago.

Another seat at the table must be given to Turkey, an emerging pole on the European continent. As the country’s foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, puts it, his country is an actor, not an issue. The Turkish sphere of influence ranges from Central Asia, through the Caucasus, Middle East and into the Western Balkans. European influence and interests in this contested neighbourhood, just as with the areas that Russia considers its own Near Abroad, requires either competition or engagement.

The EU must be there but many member states cavil at the idea that Paris and Berlin represent them. It would make more sense for the member states to mandate Baroness Ashton as their representative instead. This would both be a response to the Lisbon Treaty while allowing the EU to end the anomaly where the EU – one of the most important suppliers of European security – is not represented in any of the continent’s security institutions.

Rather than trying to tinker with the existing institutions, the idea would be to re-invigorate them from the bottom up. By involving Russia in the US-initiated missile defence shield, NATO can build on Obama’s ‘reset’ to cement a continent-wide security identity, focusing minds on external threats to Europe. But alongside this, the EU needs to engage its neighbours in advancing security within Europe. It needs to build trust between Europe’s powers and challenge them demonstrate resolve – by engaging Russia in solving frozen conflicts such as Transnistria, for instance, or supporting Turkish involvement in Bosnia. A regular informal trialogue could bring together the EU, Russia and Turkey to work on these issues, alongside other interested states.

The Deauville meeting, and November’s NATO summit looking at the new NATO Strategic Concept, support the feeling that the time is ripe for rethinking European security. The EU has spent much of the last decade defending a European order that no longer functions while hoping for a global multilateral order than will probably never come. ‘The spectre of a multipolar Europe’, which has just been published by the European Council on Foreign Relations, calls for a creative and mature response to a shifting environment, and the demands of Russia and Turkey to be taken seriously as credible actors. To paraphrase Lord Ismay, the goal of rethinking security should be to keep the EU united, Russia post-imperial and Turkey European.

A version of this article first appeared in Open Democracy

Click to listen to audio podcasts with Mark Leonard and Dimitar Bechev

We oppose indifference!

2010-10-15T07:52:00.001-07:00

"The opposite of love is not hate, it's indifference. The opposite of beauty is not ugliness, it's indifference. The opposite of faith is not heresy, it's indifference. And the opposite of life is not death, but indifference between life and death", Elie Wiesel

We have a couple of naked facts and figures: "Unsafe water and lack of basic sanitation cause

80% of diseases and kill more people every year than all forms of violence, including war. Children are especially vulnerable, as their bodies aren't strong enough to fight diarrhea, dysentery and other illnesses. 90% of the 42,000 deaths that occur every week from unsafe water and unhygienic living conditions are to children under five years old. Many of these diseases are preventable. The UN predicts that one tenth of the global disease burden can be prevented simply by improving water supply and sanitation".

The UN Millenium Development Goals (UNMDG) set the following targets: "By 2015, reduce by half the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water", starting from the basic reality: "One billion people lack access to safe drinking water, 2.4 billion to adequate sanitation. To achieve this target, an additional 1.5 billion people will require access to some form of improved water supply by 2015, that is an additional 100 million people each year (or 274,000/day) until 2015".

The same UNMDG outlines: "The main indicators for progress towards this goal are:

- Proportion of population (urban and rural) with sustainable access to an improved water source".

One of the advantages of living in the 21st century is the extended possibilities that we, as individual citizens of the world, have to share ideas, actions and global awareness campaign all over the world. The Internet, with a limited usage in the regions more affected by global poverty and water shortages, is one of the most powerful weapons we have for creating the proper environment for action. Twitter, Facebook, youtube and other opportunities we have at our disposal through social media constitute a valuable tool in pushing new ideas and calling for action. It creates visibility and global conversations, pushing ideas right on the table of the world decision makers.

On the other hand, the possibilities for a valuable change and for targeted decisions from the part of the global players are still limited. In the last decade, many campaigns started in the virtual world were not able to get translated into real policies and purposive actions. Beyond data and statistics are real people, with real needs, and the 2.0 might be only the first step from a long-term strategy aimed to reverse our usual indifference. For a real success we have to believe that our case is a good one and we have to be aware that every human being counts. We have to think about this every time we are sipping or wasting a drop of water. It is called global responsibility of individual citizens.

I wish we'll have good luck!

Help Solve the Global Water Crisis with Social Media

2010-10-15T07:47:00.000-07:00

Blog Action Day 2010: Water

It is time for action, not for indifference and lost opportunities. Today may be the first day of the real responsibility.

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